Forbes Florida Marlins Valuation was 97.4% Accurate

I thought I had been following this issue closely, but in preparing a longer post regarding the stadium deal, I came across an amazing number in the Florida Marlins Ballpark Project Report issued on January 22, 2008 by Miami-Dade County Manager, George Burgess. In section 22 (i), Community Benefit Obligations, the Florida Marlins assumed team value is stated at $250 million.

Forbes estimated the team’s value back in March of 2008 at $256 million. In doing so for every MLB team, Forbes estimates each team’s operating profits, non-operating expenses [depreciation and the interest associated with their debt] and then applies its internally developed metrics [i.e. the hard part] to arrive at the team valuations. The point is that the revenues and expenses are the most straight forward aspects of the data they provide. The valuations themselves are subjective, short of a sale which would provide a benchmark. Or in the case of the 2008 Florida Marlins, a publicly issued document which was negotiated between local governments and the Florida Marlins in which the team ties itself to a reasonable valuation.

End of manufactured controversy. In being off just 2.4% [256/250], Forbes basically nailed the number on the head. Contrast that with Marlins President David Samson’s comments to the Sun-Sentinel’s Juan Rodriguez at the time the Forbes 2008 numbers were publicized:

‘Every year I continue to be surprised at the absolute inaccuracy that a so-called reputable magazine is willing to print,’ Marlins President David Samson said. ‘We’ve never gotten called by them. We’ve never been asked to verify, deny, confirm, nothing. It’s just a shame their readership is forced to read numbers that aren’t true. ‘I know the number they have for the Marlins is simply wrong. They have no information of any kind on which to base that article.’ 

Left unsaid is the fact that if Forbes had called, they would have been denied any information or confirmation as have all the local writers, that’s just how MLB & the Loria’s roll. Anyways, I had earlier posts which delved into why the Forbes numbers are credible and how Mr Samson has the unenviable task of trying to debunk perceptions as to the Marlins recent profitability. No need to speculate now. The Marlins, through Samson, are purposely being misleading about their finances and the county manager’s memo is the proof.

It would be too easy and counter-productive to conclude that Mr. Samson is a liar. In his role as Marlins President, it’s basically his job to deny what some casual fans may think and what is obvious to people who have familiarized themselves with MLB finances. The ‘why’ the Marlins, and most other MLB teams, with the recent notable exception of the Pittsburgh Pirates, feel it’s in their interests to mislead, even if it causes them to make absurd comments [e.g. Marlins have the highest marketing budget in MLB and (#2 on my fav 5) Forbes assumes that the Marlins don’t have any non-player expenses], is more interesting to me.

I think there are a couple of reasons:

The main reason I believe is that the job of asking for public monies [albeit not local taxpayer dollars] to build a new facility would be much more difficult if the public knew unequivicably that the Marlins, according to those wacky kids at Forbes, were in terms of operating profits, the most profitable team [$43 million] in 2006 and the 2nd most [$36 million] in 2007 – despite having the lowest revenues in MLB for both years. FYI, 2008 is looking good too. Toss in that the owner, Jeffrey Loria, recently gave a $20 million donation to Yale University, and you have the makings of a tough sell.

Now, once teams already have their stadiums built the incentive to mislead is significantly lessened. But to drop the facade has implications to their fellow owners, as I’m sure the Pirates recently found out.

The second reason is what they do with the revenue sharing [RS] dollars they receive from other MLB teams. What RS was meant to do, especially in the eyes of fans, was to help smaller market [lower revenue] teams compete with the larger market teams in being able to sign players. The language in the collective bargaining agreement, even states that it is intended to “improve on-field performance.”

But that language has proven to be no obstacle for owners like Bob Nutting in Pittsburgh or Jeffrey Loria here. In the case of the Pirates, paying down team debt was considered, and the MLB Commissioner’s Office and the Players Union implicitly agree [no protest has ever been filed as to the use of RS monies], to be a legitimate interpretation of “improving on-field performance.”

So who is left to complain if the Marlins financial strategy since 2006 is to attempt to break-even while ignoring the RS monies they are receiving in the equation. Instead they are accumulating those RS monies to fund their portion of the planned stadium construction costs of $120 million. From the incentives angle [i.e. who has the most to lose], it should be the Player’s Union, but they have been silent. Perhaps their silence is the last side effect from the steroids era.

Anyways, how does a MLB team remain very profitable despite having the lowest revenues? In 2008, a year where they can expect to receive around $75 from MLB [at least $35 million in Revenue Sharing and around $40 million in Central Revenues], their opening day salaries totaled $22 million. Imagine selling that at FanFest and you then have a better idea of why Mr. Samson makes nonsensical remarks regarding the Marlins finances and Forbes’ credibility.

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Name One, I Dare You

When Ted Kennedy first ran for the Senate in 1962, his opponent in the Democratic primary [the equivalent of a general election in MA] – Edward McCormack, state attorney general of Massachusetts and nephew of House Speaker John McCormack [not exactly an outsider himself] – commented during a debate on TV:

“If your name was simply Edward Moore instead of Edward Moore Kennedy, your candidacy would be a joke.”

Can you imagine Sen. McCain turning to Sen. Obama during one of the upcoming debates and making the following comment:

“If you were a WASP, your candidacy would be a joke.”

I can’t either. It would take real skill to deliver that remark without appearing to be racially insensitive. He would of course go on to say that it says great things about our country that someone of color … yada yada yada. Some would be offended of course, but they probably aren’t McCain voters anyways.

The idea would be to highlight Sen. Obama’s lack of significant experience or accomplishments. If he wins, he would become the president with the least elected experience since Dwight Eisenhower [elected 1952]. Generally, Supreme Allied Commander trumps community organizer, so let’s keep going back to find out which previous president had less accomplishments or governmental experience than Barack Obama.

Here we go – Herbert Hoover had never been elected to office before being elected President [1928] – let’s check that bio:

During the time in the early 1920s when legislation was being crafted to authorize a dam on the Colorado River, Herbert Hoover (1874-1964) served as Secretary of Commerce for President Warren Harding. Secretary Hoover drafted the Colorado River Compact. The Compact proposed dividing the Colorado basin into two parts, the upper and lower. Water from the upper basin would supply Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, while the water from the lower basin would be used by Arizona, California, and Nevada. The terms of the compact seemed to quell the complaints of each of the states (with the exception of Arizona.) Hoover was congratulated for his skill and efficiency in handling the matter.A millionaire before age 40, Hoover was admired for his talent as a mining engineer and his administrative skills. During World War I, he distinguished himself as director of the American Relief Committee, a London organization charged with assisting stranded Americans escape war-ravaged Europe. Following that assignment Hoover had similar success as the chairman of the Commission for Relief in Belgium, where he coordinated the distribution of clothing, food, and medical supplies to civilians in France and Belgium. Having gained high marks for his war-time efforts, Hoover gained political prominence in the administrations of Presidents Harding and Coolidge. He served as Commerce Secretary for both men. In 1928, Hoover benefited from Calvin Coolidge’s decision not to run for re-election. Hoover handily defeated Democrat Alfred E. Smith to win the presidency.

Perhaps we were too rash. Relax, we’ll find somebody.

Looks like we may have a chance with Woodrow Wilson [elected 1912] – let’s check that bio:

In 1890 Wilson was appointed professor of jurisprudence and economics at Princeton. These were busy years for the popular teacher, who also devoted his energies to the publication of Division and Reunion (1893) and History of the American People (1902), as well as public lecturing and writing for popular magazines. A frequent theme that emerged at Princeton was his belief in the wisdom of having a strong executive at the helm of the nation. In 1902 he was unanimously elected president of Princeton, the first layman to hold that position.

As a college president, Wilson was an innovator and reformer whose stands eventually wore out his welcome. He was dedicated to the goal of making Princeton an institution of the first rank and fostered instructional reform through the use of “preceptors” — young academics who were assigned to live with the students and to hold discussion sessions related to the class work. Wilson also was successful in updating the university’s curriculum. Wilson’s victories and defeats were widely reported in the New Jersey press, making him a popular figure.

Tiring of butting heads over academic issues, and capitalizing on recent publicity, Wilson accepted the Democratic nomination for governor of New Jersey in the summer of 1910. James “Sugar Jim” Smith held the reins of the state machine and thought the college president would lend an aura of reform to his tarnished party. Wilson won an overwhelming victory in the fall and then quickly divested Smith of any notion that he would be easily manipulated. Smith had anticipated a Senate seat for helping Wilson, but the new governor spearheaded a movement on behalf of another candidate — and won.

Wilson aligned himself with legislative progressives and managed to record major accomplishments in short order. Laws were passed providing for regulation of public utilities, school reform, workmen’s compensation, direct primaries, and later, state antitrust legislation for the formerly permissive New Jersey. These successes made Wilson a national political figure.

Doesn’t seem like a ‘voting-present’ kinda guy. OK, forget Wilson, let’s keep hope alive.

Here’s Chester Arthur’s [elected 1880] bio:

Arthur became principal of North Pownal Academy in North Pownal, Vermont in 1849. He studied law and was admitted to the bar in 1854. Arthur commenced practice in New York City. He was one of the attorneys who successfully defended Elizabeth Jennings Graham [black woman], who was tried after being denied seating on a bus due to her race. Arthur also took an active part in the reorganization of the state militia.During the American Civil War, Arthur served as acting quartermaster general of the state in 1861 and was widely praised for his service. He was later commissioned as inspector general, and appointed quartermaster general with the rank of brigadier general and served until 1862. After the war, he resumed the practice of law in New York City. With the help of Arthur’s patron and political boss Roscoe Conkling, Arthur was appointed by President Ulysses Grant as Collector of the Port of New York from 1871 to 1878.

This was an extremely lucrative and powerful position at the time, and several of Arthur’s predecessors had run afoul of the law while serving as collector. Honorable in his personal life and his public career, Arthur sided with the Stalwarts in the Republican Party, which firmly believed in the spoils system even as it was coming under vehement attack from reformers. He insisted upon honest administration of the Customs House but nevertheless staffed it with more employees than it really needed, retaining some for their loyalty as party workers rather than for their skill as public servants.

Sorry, I can’t go against a guy who served his country during the Civil War.

Abraham Lincoln [elected 1860] – this is the one most mentioned as having less or comparable experience to Sen. Obama – but note the variety and depth of his experiences – bio:

Lincoln began his political career in 1832, at age 23, with an unsuccessful campaign for the Illinois General Assembly, as a member of the Whig Party. The centerpiece of his platform was the undertaking of navigational improvements on the Sangamon River. He believed that this would attract steamboat traffic, which would allow the sparsely populated, poorer areas along the river to flourish.He was elected captain of an Illinois militia company drawn from New Salem during the Black Hawk War, and later wrote that he had not had “any such success in life which gave him so much satisfaction.”

For several months, Lincoln ran a small store in New Salem.

In 1834, he won election to the state legislature, and, after coming across the Commentaries on the Laws of England, began to teach himself law. Admitted to the bar in 1837, he moved to Springfield, Illinois, that same year and began to practice law with John T. Stuart. With a reputation as a formidable adversary during cross-examinations and in his closing arguments, Lincoln became one of the most respected and successful lawyers in Illinois and grew steadily more prosperous.

He served four successive terms in the Illinois House of Representatives as a representative from Sangamon County, and became a leader of the Illinois Whig party. In 1837, he made his first protest against slavery in the Illinois House, stating that the institution was “founded on both injustice and bad policy.”

A Whig and an admirer of party leader Henry Clay, Lincoln was elected to a term in the U.S. House of Representatives in 1846. As a freshman House member, he was not a particularly powerful or influential figure. However, he spoke out against the Mexican-American War, which he attributed to President Polk’s desire for “military glory” and challenged the President’s claims regarding the Texas boundary and offered Spot Resolutions, demanding to know on what “spot” on US soil that blood was first split.

By the mid-1850s, Lincoln’s caseload focused largely on the competing transportation interests of river barges and railroads. In one prominent 1851 case, he represented the Alton & Sangamon Railroad in a dispute with a shareholder, James A. Barret. Barret had refused to pay the balance on his pledge to the railroad on the grounds that it had changed its originally planned route. Lincoln argued that as a matter of law a corporation is not bound by its original charter when that charter can be amended in the public interest, that the newer route proposed by Alton & Sangamon was superior and less expensive, and that accordingly, the corporation had a right to sue Barret for his delinquent payment. He won this case, and the decision by the Illinois Supreme Court was eventually cited by several other courts throughout the United States.

Lincoln was involved in more than 5,100 cases in Illinois alone during his 23-year legal career. Though many of these cases involved little more than filing a writ, others were more substantial and quite involved. Lincoln and his partners appeared before the Illinois State Supreme Court more than 400 times.

Lincoln returned to politics in response to the Kansas-Nebraska Act (1854), which expressly repealed the limits on slavery’s extent as determined by the Missouri Compromise (1820). Illinois Democrat Stephen A. Douglas, the most powerful man in the Senate, proposed popular sovereignty as the solution to the slavery impasse, and incorporated it into the Kansas-Nebraska Act. Douglas argued that in a democracy the people should have the right to decide whether or not to allow slavery in their territory, rather than have such a decision imposed on them by Congress.

Drawing on remnants of the old Whig, Free Soil, Liberty and Democratic parties, he was instrumental in forming the new Republican Party. In a stirring campaign, the Republicans carried Illinois in 1854 and elected a senator. Lincoln was the obvious choice, but to keep the new party balanced he allowed the election to go to an ex-Democrat Lyman Trumbull. At the Republican convention in 1856, Lincoln placed second in the contest to become the party’s candidate for Vice-President.

In 1857-58, Douglas broke with President Buchanan, leading to a fight for control of the Democratic Party. Some eastern Republicans even favored the reelection of Douglas in 1858, since he had led the opposition to the Lecompton Constitution, which would have admitted Kansas as a slave state. Accepting the Republican nomination for Senate in 1858, Lincoln delivered his famous speech: “‘A house divided against itself cannot stand.'(Mark 3:25) I believe this government cannot endure permanently half slave and half free. I do not expect the Union to be dissolved — I do not expect the house to fall — but I do expect it will cease to be divided. It will become all one thing, or all the other.” The speech created an evocative image of the danger of disunion caused by the slavery debate, and rallied Republicans across the north.

Don’t be embarrassed that you entertained the thought that they had similar experiences prior to becoming president, just stop watching PMS-NBC. Bottom line, Lincoln really was a great lawyer, not someone who punched that ticket on the resume. Case closed. Onward, Christian [as far as I know] soldiers.

Zachary Taylor [elected 1848] had a 40 year career in the Army and served in various wars – buck up lads, this post has to end soon.

This is getting ugly – from Jackson [elected 1828] through Taylor they all had extensive military and state government experience. The first six are an absolute nightmare for Sen. Obama, founding the nation and all.

Open challenge to Obama supporters; Name one president who had less experience or accomplishment than Sen. Obama will have had if elected in 2008 – with the caveat that experience does not equate to success in the presidency.

Posted in 2TG Favorites, Current Affairs & History | Tagged | Leave a comment

Umpiring and the key ingredient of good citizenry

Watching the Marlins @ Padres last night, I saw a borderline bad call get overshadowed by MLB umpire Joe West’s subsequent imitation of the Federal Government – outwardly bloated with an impervious attitude. At the moment, I imagined terrible fates befalling Mr West with my enthusiastic assent, but in the light of day [and a Marlins win], I now thank Mr West for teaching me tolerance. Tolerance of mediocrity and the unions which shield them is needed in great supply – let’s just call it the Brian Runge challenge.

On June 29th, Mr Runge, in his 2nd game coming off a one game suspension for bumping a manager, lost count of a ball 4 to Orlando Hudson and then made 2 of the worst called strikes – the mind wanders to Eric Gregg’s glorious punch out of Fred McGriff in the 1997 LCS – imaginable in the same inning, one against each team.

As fans, we are aware that home plate umpires do make-up calls, but to watch him do it on pitches which were not close, essentially back to back [Mark Reynolds in the top of the 8th and Mike Jacobs in the bottom of the 8th], showed me how immune umpires feel to criticism. The NBA is not the only league with an officiating problem.

Jim McLennan, a Diamondback’s fan, took a poll to find out who might be the best & worst umpires – check out his blog.

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A Big Dog You Can’t Top or Forget

Robotics inch and claw forward. Do the Clone wars approach? Just in case, Dear Boston Dynamics, please reconsider that sale to Venezuela. Search for the ‘Big Dog’ video here.

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Tom Wolfe Seed interview

I’ve copied the complete Tom Wolfe interview in Seed magazine below. See the 10 minute video here

—————————————————————————————-
The Seed Salon – The Transcript: Tom Wolfe + Michael Gazzaniga

The father of cognitive neuroscience and the original New Journalist discuss status, free will, the human condition, and The Interpreter.

by Edit Staff • Posted July 1, 2008 06:09 PM

Wolfe, who calls himself “the social secretary of neuroscience,” often turns to current research to inform his stories and cultural commentary. His 1996 essay, “Sorry, But Your Soul Just Died,” raised questions about personal responsibility in the age of genetic predeterminism. Similar concerns led Gazzaniga to found the Law and Neuroscience Project. When Gazzaniga, who just published Human: The Science Behind What Makes Us Unique, was last in New York, Seed incited a discussion: on status, free will, and the human condition.

17Salon368.jpg Click on the image to watch highlights from the Salon.

Tom Wolfe: Mike, I don’t want you to think I’m giving up my right to disagree with you down the line — I may not have to — but you’re one of the very few evolutionary thinkers and neuroscientists that I pay attention to, and I’ll tell you why. In the ’90s, when the subject of neuroscience and also genetics started becoming hot, there was a tendency to conflate genetic theory and evolutionary theory with neuroscience, as if the two were locked, which just isn’t true. Remember Jose Delgado, the wave brain physiologist who was at Yale at one time?

Michael Gazzaniga: Oh yeah. Sure.

TW: The guy stood in a smock in a bullring and put stereotaxic needles in the brain of a bull and just let himself be charged. He had a radio transmitter. The bull is as far away as that wall is from me, and he presses the thing and the bull goes dadadada and comes to a stop.

MG: Right.

TW: He’s still with us; he’s in his 90s. Anyway, his son, also Jose Delgado, and also a neuroscientist, was interviewed recently and he said, “The human brain is complex beyond anybody’s imagining, let alone comprehension.” He said, “We are not a few miles down a long road; we are a few inches down the long road.” Then he said, “All the rest is literature.”

Many of today’s leading theorists, such as E. O. Wilson, Richard Dawkins, and Dan Dennett, probably know about as much on the human brain as a second-year graduate student in neuropsychology. That isn’t their field. Wilson is a great zoologist and a brilliant writer. Dawkins, I’m afraid, is now just a PR man for evolution. He’s kind of like John the Baptist — he goes around announcing the imminent arrival. Dennett, of course, is a philosopher and doesn’t pretend to know anything about the brain. I think it has distorted the whole discussion.

MG: Well, let me roll the cameras back to the ’80s and ’90s, when neuroscience was taking off. There were new techniques available to understand the chemical, physiological, and anatomical processes in the brain. Imaging was starting up and the inrush of data was enormous and exciting. So there was a hunger for the big picture: What does it mean? How do we put it together into a story? Ultimately, everything’s got to have a narrative in science, as in life. And there was a need for people who didn’t spend their time looking down a microscope to tell a story of what this could mean. I would say that some of the people who’ve made attempts at that did a very good job. But I will hold out for the fact that if you haven’t slaved away looking at the nervous system with the tools of neuroscience — if you’re only talking about it — you don’t quite have the same respect for it. Because it is an extraordinarily complex machine. If Jose Delgado says we’re 2 inches down the road to this long journey, I would say it’s more like 2 microns.

TW: Right.

MG: It’s a very daunting task. When I was at Dartmouth College in the late ’50s studying biology, they were just beginning to tell us about DNA. It was a dream. Linus Pauling said, “Someday there’s going to be molecular medicine.” And the response was: “What are you talking about?”
In the past 55 years, there’s been this explosion of work and incredible, intricate knowledge about how genes work. My youngest daughter is now a graduate student in genetics, I’m happy to report. So this past Christmas, I said, “I’m going to buy a genetics textbook and read the sucker, and I’m going to be able to converse with my daughter.” I got to page two, and I said, “I’m going to talk to her about other things.”

TW: Ha ha.

MG: It’s far too complicated. But it’s at a point where there’s an explosion of information all over the world. And you feel it — the next new idea is waiting to happen.

TW: I think all this excitement has spawned a replacement for Freudian psychologists. They’ve been replaced by the evolutionary psychologists, whose main interest seems to be to retrofit the theory of evolution on whatever ended up happening. I read an example in your new book of a woman who’s come up with an elaborate theory that music has a survival benefit in the evolutionary sense because it increases the social cohesiveness of populations. I would love for her to read a piece that appeared recently in the New Yorker about a tribe, the Pirahã in the Maici River, a little tributary of the Amazon. This tribe, it turns out, has a language with eight consonants and three vowels. I think they have a sum total of 52 words or something like that. As a result, they have little art, they have no music, no dance, and no religion. They’re usually cited because they seem to be a terrible exception to Noam Chomsky’s rule that all people are born with a structure that enables them to put words in a grammatical form. Not the Pirahã! And they’re not stupid or retarded in any sense. They just had never increased their language abilities — and they don’t want to.

MG: Yeah. Well, exceptions are historic. Look, the good evolutionary psychologists are good. They’re telling us not to fall into the trap of thinking that everything’s fixable via simple learning mechanisms or social engineering. They’re saying, “Look, there are basic aspects to human nature that are common to all members of our species and have been there a long time.” What’s exciting is that we’ve developed this cognitive mechanism to free us from the things that determine so much of our behavior. And by doing so, we’ve sort of cut the rope from the rest of the animal kingdom. We can do things and we can cultivate certain behavior, even though there are obviously a lot of tendencies that are part of our biology. For example, here’s an idea that comes from evolutionary psychology, an observation that I think is rather shrewd: Why are members of our species drawn to the fictional experience? Here you are, someone who’s spent your life with fiction —

TW: — I was at one time a journalist. We don’t deal with fiction. Not intentionally.

MG: Ha ha — right. But it’s a fascinating thing to think of the role that fiction and make-believe play. Do you feel, when you create a body of fiction, that you’re opening up possibilities for people to think about problems in a different way? To confront things they don’t yet know about?

TW: Well, I do take issue with the idea that all stories have a bearing on evolutionary benefits or survival benefits. In my opinion all stories have to do with status. When people say, “I just want some good escape literature,” what they’re looking for are dramatizations of people facing status problems. Harry Potter is like every child who feels overwhelmed by this adult world around him, and he overcomes it in ways that don’t interest me in particular — he can pull things out of the air. But, like Anna Karenina, it’s a story about status problems. Tolstoy and Flaubert would be paupers today, writing these novels, which are all based on the idea that a woman must remain chaste. They’d be laughed out of town. The story of Anna Kerenina and Vronsky would be a Page Six item and then that would be the end of it. But if we successfully put ourselves in the mindset of the 19th century, we can really enjoy the status problems that they have.

MG: Do you think all art is about status?

TW: Well, certainly not music. Dance, maybe yes, maybe no. But literature and movies, yes. To me the crucial point is something, which I don’t think even Chomsky understands, about speech and language. Chomsky and many other people are wonderful at telling us how language works, and about differences in languages and the historical progression of languages across the face of the Earth. But I seem to be the one person who realizes the properties of speech. Speech is an artifact. It’s not a natural progression of intelligence, in my opinion — we have to look only at the Pirahã for that. It’s a code. You’re inventing a code for all the objects in the world and then establishing relationships between those objects. And speech has fundamentally transformed human beings.

MG: By speech I assume you mean language and not the actual act of speaking?

TW: To me, it’s the same, speech and talking.

MG: Okay, so what do you think language and speech are for? I mean, it’s probably an adaptation. We’re big animals, and that’s one of the goodies that we got.

TW: I think speech is entirely different from other survival benefits. Only with speech can you ask the question, “Why?”

MG: Right.

TW: Animals cannot ask why. In one way or another, they can ask what, where, and when. But they cannot ask why. I’ve never seen an animal shrug. When you shrug, you’re trying to say, “I don’t know why.” And they also can’t ask how.

MG: Yeah.

TW: With language you can ask that question. I think it’s at that point where religion starts.

MG: Right.

TW: Humans got language and they were suddenly able to say, “Hey, why is all this here? Who put it here?” And my assumption is that they said, “There must be somebody like us but much bigger, much more powerful, that could make all these trees, the streams. God must be really something, and you’d better not get on the wrong side of him.” I think that’s the way it started.

STORYTIME, ALL THE TIME

MG: As you may know, I came across this phenomenon that I call the Interpreter. It’s something that’s in the left hemisphere of the human; it tries to put a story together as to why something occurred. So, we found this in patients who’ve had their brains divided. What we could do is sort of tiptoe into their nonspeaking right hemisphere and get them to do something like walk out of the room or lift their hand up. Then we would ask the left hemisphere, “Why did you do that?” And they would cook up a story to make sense out of what their disconnected right hemisphere just did. The left brain didn’t know that we’d pulled a trick on them, so they concoct an explanation for why they walked out of the room. And it’s because this left hemisphere can ask, “Why? What’s that all about?” But one of the things we’ve never been able to unpack is whether this Interpreter is completely overlapping with the language system and is therefore a sort of press agent for its own mechanism. What we do know is that there are separate systems for different types of cognition. And the Interpreter seems to be located in the parts of the brain where language is located. So many people do think that interpretive capacity comes with language; that this is the deal with language — it comes along for the ride. Others believe that there are actually all kinds of different cognitive mechanisms happening, and language reports them out. So the function of language is to talk about it, talk about what you know and communicate, “Hey! Look here, I know how to cook a fish. Here, let me show you how.”

TW: I’ve always been interested in your theory of the Interpreter. When I was in graduate school, I was introduced to this concept of social status in the work of Max Weber, the German sociologist. And the more I thought about it, the more I could see that status was not simply something that was appearances and houses and automobiles, or even ranks in a corporation or that sort of thing. It invaded every single part of life. I remember when I was in graduate school, there was a setup wherein a common bathroom was shared by two rooms. And there was a student from India — a brilliant scientist — who had apparently come from way out in the countryside, with no natural social standing and not many amenities. Now, you’d think the things you do in absolute private would not be driven by status concerns. But he heard three of his American friends joking about the fact that when they went into the bathroom, they found footprints on the toilet seat. Well, this fellow had never seen a porcelain toilet before. He was crushed. He felt absolutely humiliated, and here was something that goes on in private.

Anyway, this was something before I’d ever heard of neuroscience, and I said, “There must be something in the brain that registers this, your status in every kind of situation.” And I kept looking for it. Freud had been such a powerful figure that everyone seemed to think, “Freud’s got the bottom line, why should we go through all these complicated neurons and everything to see how he got there. He’s got it.” I hoped to find the answer in Delgado’s book, but it wasn’t really there. It wasn’t until I ran across your concept of the Interpreter that I thought, “Hey, maybe we’ve got it.”

MG: Well, the key concept in understanding status has to do with the idea of social comparison. The Interpreter fires up and almost reflexively starts to compare the new person with one’s self and others. Multiple factors seep into this narrative being built by the Interpreter and the importance of status is one of the products of that process.

Still, I think the essential question that neuroscience has to answer is why, when I interact with someone, I don’t think it’s my brain talking to their brain. I’m talking to Tom Wolfe, and you’re listening to Mike Gazzaniga, right? We instantly convert to that: I give you an essence right off the bat. I put you at the level of a person with mental states and all the rest of it. That mechanism, it makes us all dualists in a way. Absolute dualists. That mechanism is the deep mystery of neuroscience, and no one has touched it yet. No one knows how that works. That’s the goal.

For my part, what I’ve come to realize is that the neuroscience of the next 20 years will be studying social processes of humans. In order to get to the biology of anything, you need technology that allows you to study the human mind. It’s only really in the past 10 or 15 years that we’ve had the new methods of imaging. And they keep getting better and better and better. The ability to think about other people is probably the impetus behind all these marvelous things the human brain can do.

TW: Every time we go into a room with other people, it’s as if we have a teleprompter in front of us and it’s telling us the history of ourselves versus these people. We can’t even think of thinking without this huge library of good information and bad information.

MG: That’s why the great psycholinguist George Miller, whom we shared a dinner with once, called us the “informavores.” That’s how he wanted to cast us.

When you get up in the morning, you do not think about triangles and squares and these similes that psychologists have been using for the past 100 years.

You think about status. You think about where you are in relation to your peers. You’re thinking about your spouse, about your kids, about your boss. Ninety-nine percent of your time is spent thinking about other people’s thoughts about you, their intentions, and all this kind of stuff. So sorting all that out, how we navigate this complex social world, there’s going to be a neuroscience to it, and I think it’s going to be very powerful.

THE NEW IDENTITY CRISIS

MG: I’m involved in a new project called “Neuroscience and the Law,” which I think you’re familiar with. It brings up the idea that there are these causal forces that make us do the things we do, that by the time you’re consciously aware of something, your brain’s already done it. How else could it be? Because the brain is what’s producing these mental events that we’re sorting through. So these ideas — what I call the ooze of neuroscience — are going out everywhere, and people are willing to accept that: “My brain did it. Officer, it wasn’t me.” These defenses are popping up all over the judicial system. But if we adopt that, then it’s hard to see why we have a retributive response to a wrongdoing. It would seem to me to be morally wrong to blame someone for something that was going to happen anyway because of forces beyond their control. So people get into this loop, and they get very concerned about the nature of our retributive response. This puts you right smack in the middle of the question: Are we free to do what we think we’re doing?

TW: Oh, it’s the hottest subject in academia. Philosophy students are flocking to neuroscience because they think the answers are all there, not in our silly, cherished way of thinking. It’s called “materialism,” to some. We are computers, and a computer is programmed a certain way, and there’s nothing the computer can do to change its programming. I think materialism is too grand a word for it. It’s mechanical. I mean, here’s what happens. The scientist says, “We are machines.” There’s no ghost in the machine. There’s no little tiny “me” in the conning tower surveying the universe and figuring out a place within it. It’s a machine. Things get more and more complicated when it comes to humans, but it’s still a machine. Obviously, this machine has no free choice. It’s programmed to do certain things. It’s as if you threw a rock in the air, and in midflight you gave that rock consciousness. That rock would come up with 12 airtight, logical reasons why it’s going in that direction. This has caught on like wildfire. The flaw in that is that speech, language, creates so many variables. Speech reacts. It’s the only artifact I can think of that reacts.

MG: Well, I think using the term “free will” is just a bad way to capture the problem. Because here’s the question: Free from what? What are you trying to be free from?

TW: It’s a very simple definition: You make your own decisions.

MG: Yeah. But who is “you”? “You” is this person with this brain that has been interacting with this environment since you were born, learning about the good and the bad, the things that work and don’t work. You’ve been making decisions all the way along, and now you have a new one and you want to be free to make it. So psychologically, the Interpreter is telling you you’re making this decision. But the trick is understanding that your brain is basing the decision on past experience, on all the stuff it has learned. You want a reliable machine to make the actual act occur. You want to be responding rationally to any challenge that you get in the world, because you want that experience to be evaluated. That’s all going on in your brain second by second, moment to moment. And as a result, you make a decision about it. And phenomenologically, when the decision finally comes out, you say, “Oh, that’s me!”

TW: Speech has introduced so many variables into your machine that it becomes pointless to argue whether this is free or not free will. Obviously, it’s not free in the sense that if you don’t have this body, you can’t do anything. But it is free in the sense that because of your experiences and because of the reactions of speech constantly feeding you new material, your brain is going to operate differently from anybody else’s, and that is the free will — whether you call it mechanical or not. Everybody becomes such an individual, it becomes pointless to say, “You didn’t make that decision.” It’s an absurd idea.

MG: Well, I think we’re saying the same thing. There is a very clever little experiment that you would be amused by, run by my colleague Jonathan Schooler. He has a bunch of students read a paragraph or two from the Francis Crick book, Astonishing Hypothesis, which is very deterministic in tone and intent. And then he has another group of students reading an inspirational book about how we make our own decisions and determine our own path. He then lets each group play a videogame in which you’re free to cheat. So guess who cheats? The people who have just read that it’s all determined cheat their pants off.

I think people who try to find personal responsibility in the brain are wrongheaded. Think of it this way: If you’re the only person in the world, you live alone on an island, there’s no concept of personal responsibility. Who are you being personally responsible to? If somebody shows up on the island though —

TW: — Friday was his name.

MG: Yeah, exactly. Then you’ve got a social group. And the group starts to make rules; that’s the only way they’re going to function. Out of those rules comes responsibility. So responsibilities are to the relationships within the social groups, and when someone breaks a rule, they’re breaking a social rule. So don’t look for where in their brain something went wrong; look at the fact that they broke a rule, which they could have followed. I’m actually kind of hard-nosed about this. I think people should be held accountable for lots of stuff.

TW: No, I would certainly agree with that. In fact, my theory of status is that all of us live by a set of values that, if written in stone, would make not me but my group superior in some way. I think there are just so many kinds of status layers due solely to likeness. You can always find a group that seems to justify whatever you’re doing.

MG: Our species seems brilliant at forming groups — indeed support groups — for almost anything. And no matter what the group is about, no matter what its character, it becomes advocatory.
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Judge Jeri Beth Cohen

Perception: The Braman lawsuit regarding the efforts to build the Marlins a stadium on the Orange Bowl site will determine if the local government’s [Global] megaplan are reasonable and whether the Marlins are paying their fair share.

Reality
: The case in Judge Jeri Beth Cohen’s courtroom may be settled along technical legal grounds which don’t address either the plan’s reasonableness or whether the Marlins are contributing their fair share.

Normally, I’d label that perception as unfair, with the caveat that judges, of all people, should be able to deal with that, given [oncoming Godfather reference] the lives they have chosen. But that was just my first reaction. Then I remembered to consult the great Judge Posner.

I’d like to extrapolate his views from another issue onto this one. Recently I watched HBO’s Recount – about the 2000 Presidential election – and started reading Posner’s views on it [he thinks the Supreme Court’s decision achieved the correct result, but was poorly arrived at]. Aside from his book on the topic, he had a lengthy exchange with Alan Dershowitz in Slate magazine, during which he made the following point:

Students of the law differ on the extent to which pragmatic considerations are proper in adjudication. I believe that they are proper, though with qualifications. If pragmatic adjudication means ad hoc decision-making that disregards everything besides the immediately foreseeable consequences of the case at hand, I am against it. But I’m for it if it merely means bringing into the decision-making process, to the extent allowed by the conventional materials of adjudication such as text and precedent, a consideration of consequences both long term (such as the importance of predictability in law) and immediate. Law’s consequences are not “extralegal” matters that judges should ignore in accordance with the maxim ruat caelum ut fiat iustitia (let the sky fall so long as justice is done). Law should be in the service of life. Where do you think law comes from if not from practical concerns with attaining such social goals as prosperity, security, freedom, and, in Bush v. Gore, an orderly presidential succession?

The bottom line here is that if the Judge Cohen thinks the Global plan is a bad deal for local governments, that thinking may legitimately find its way into the decision which comes from her courtroom. Score one for perceptions.

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Why Golf is not a Sport

While we’re at, it let’s add stock car racing to the non-sport list. Any ‘activity’ in which a semi-retired [from his main non-physical profession] long-time AARP member can take up and succeed in later in life means that the equipment mattered more than the participant. Anyways, if golf were a sport, the following posting on The Onion would not be funny, and it is very funny:

A man who used several different bent sticks to hit a ball to an area comprised of very short grass surrounding a hole in the ground was praised for his courage Monday after he used a somewhat smaller stick to gently roll the ball into the aforementioned hole in fewer attempts than his competitors. “What guts, what confidence,” ESPN commentator Scott Van Pelt said of the man, who was evidently unable to carry his sticks himself, employing someone else to hold the sticks and manipulate the flag sticking out of the hole in the ground while he rolled the ball into it. “You have to be so brave, so self-assured, so strong mentally to [roll a ball into a hole in the ground]. Amazing.” The man in question apparently hurt his knee during this activity.

A more serious argument is made by Michael Lewis in his commentary on Bloomberg.com – an excerpt below:

Once you see golf for what it is — an activity more like birding than basketball that, for the sake of rich important people, everyone is pretending is more like basketball — you begin to understand a lot of otherwise hard-to-fathom golf- related phenomena.

For instance, the huge sums paid to real athletes, from real sports, to play golf. The appearance fees that any recently retired jock can earn by playing a round of golf with businesspeople is, on the face of it, bizarre.

It’s hard to think of another form of recreation that pays jocks to associate themselves with it. Spelunkers don’t pay ex- jocks to spelunk; tai chi chuan masters don’t pay ex-jocks to contort themselves conspicuously in the local park.

Only golf pays ex-jocks to play it — so that the people who engage in it can feel more jock-like.

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The un-Fab Five – MLB’s Profitable Leeches

Please click on the spreadsheet to enlarge or print.

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Tracking Bad Loans Goes Way Off Balance Sheet

The WSJ article [subscription needed] describes how banks are ‘fixing’ their bad loan problems, partly by making it harder to be a bad loan. The cynic in me hopes one day to see a ‘badder loan’ section on a financial statement. Another tactic is to transfer bad [baddest?] loans to non-regulated subsidiaries in order to avoid capitalization issues.

The obvious results of these types of changes is to make the accuracy of the liability section of a balance sheet suspect. Only those who are prepared to go in-depth into the notes of a financial statement can have any sort of confidence about the entity’s financial condition.

Which makes me wonder if there isn’t an opportunity here to restate the financial statements for public companies to incorporate the contingent liabilities detailed in the Notes into a ‘real’ or ‘worst case’ liability section – i.e. what the regular balance sheet would look like if it were actually useful to independent 3rd parties. Online stock trading sites would seem to have the most incentive to produce something like that. To be followed up on.

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Current Iraq situation

I consider Thomas Friedman to be part of the responsible political left. In this column, he gives his assessment of the current situation in Iraq. Hard to argue with his points about the current political realities facing the next president – see excerpt below.

The first is the mood of the American public, which has rendered a judgment that the price we have paid in Iraq over the last five years far, far exceeds what has been achieved there to date. Therefore, whoever wins the presidency — John McCain or Barack Obama — will take office knowing that the American people will not tolerate another four years dominated by an open-ended commitment to Iraq.

But the second is the reality on the ground in Iraq, which is no longer an unremitting horror story. Clearly, the surge has helped to dampen the internal conflict. Clearly, the Iraqi Army is performing better. Clearly, Iraq’s Prime Minister Maliki, by cracking down on rogue Shiite groups from his own community, has established himself as more of a national leader. Clearly, the Sunnis have decided to take part in the coming parliamentary elections. Clearly, Kurdistan continues to operate as an island of decency and free markets. Clearly, Al Qaeda in Iraq has been hurt. Clearly, some Arab countries are coming to terms with the changes there by reopening embassies in Baghdad.

The third reality, though, is the fact that the reconciliation process inside Iraq — almost five years after our invasion — still has not reached a point where Iraq’s stability is self-sustaining. And Tuesday’s bombing in Baghdad, which killed more than 50 people at a bus stop in a Shiite neighborhood, only underscores that. The U.S. military is still needed as referee. It still is not clear that Iraq is a country that can be held together by anything other than an iron fist. It’s still not clear that its government is anything more than a collection of sectarian fiefs.

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