Why inflation means relief for taxpayers

WSJ Tax article
——————————————————————
Why Inflation Means Relief For Taxpayers Adjustments to Exemptions, Brackets for 2009 Will Benefit High-Income Filers the Most

SEPTEMBER 17, 2008

By TOM HERMAN

No matter who wins the White House, most taxpayers can look forward to some relief next year.

Based on inflation data released Tuesday by the Labor Department, the personal exemption amount, standard deduction, federal income-tax brackets and many other tax-related numbers will increase in 2009, thanks to annual adjustments required by law. Once again, high-income taxpayers generally will benefit the most.

For example, several so-called stealth taxes that ensnare millions of upper-income Americans each year will start at higher income levels for 2009, compared with 2008. Among these are limits on itemized deductions and personal exemption amounts. They’re known as stealth taxes because they raise your taxes without changing the tax rates and thus can be difficult to detect by voters.
More

On Sept. 17, CCH plans to post a summary of the inflation adjustments on its Web site: http://www.cch.com

In one of the biggest changes, the annual gift-tax exclusion is likely to increase by $1,000 to $13,000, says James C. Young, a professor of accountancy at Northern Illinois University. Starting in 2009, you will be able to give away as much as $13,000 to anyone you wish — and to as many people as you wish — without any tax considerations. Many wealthy people take advantage of this provision each year as part of their estate-planning strategy.

(You can give away even more than the exclusion amount by paying someone else’s tuition or medical bills. However, you need to make those payments directly to the medical or educational provider.)

All the new inflation-adjusted numbers, which affect returns for 2009 to be filed in 2010, are unofficial. They were crunched by three private-sector tax experts: George Jones, senior federal tax analyst at CCH, a Wolters Kluwer business; William Massey, senior tax analyst for the tax & accounting business of Thomson Reuters; and Prof. Young. This column publishes highlights of their calculations each year since those estimates have been highly reliable over many years.

How much of a saving will taxpayers enjoy because of the inflation adjustments? The answer can vary widely, depending upon the details of each person’s tax situation. A married couple filing jointly with total taxable income of $100,000 will pay $312.50 less in federal income taxes for 2009 than they will on the same income for 2008, says Mr. Jones of CCH. Official numbers from the Internal Revenue Service typically aren’t released until late each year. If the government subsequently revises the inflation data, some projections could change. For more details on the inflation adjustments, visit CCH’s Web site (www.cch.com).

These estimates may help early birds refine their tax-planning and budget strategies. But tax planning can be unusually difficult these days, since nobody knows what tax-law changes may lie ahead next year after a new president moves into the Oval Office. It isn’t even clear yet what Congress will do about several key issues affecting taxes for 2008.

The most likely outcome is that Congress will approve a stopgap measure, known as an “AMT patch,” designed to keep the number of people affected by the alternative minimum tax at about the same level as in 2007. Prospects improved Tuesday when Senate leaders said they had agreed on legislation that would include higher AMT income exemption amounts.

The AMT has many rules that differ from the regular system. For example, state and local taxes aren’t deductible under the AMT. That’s why among those most likely to be affected by the AMT are taxpayers who live in high-tax areas, such as New York City, New Jersey and California, and who make between about $100,000 and $500,000. For more details on the inner workings of the AMT, visit the Web site of the Tax Policy Center (http://www.taxpolicycenter.org), a joint venture of the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution.

The AMT was created decades ago in an effort to make sure high-income Americans paid at least some federal income tax. Over the years, the AMT’s reach has expanded rapidly. If Congress does nothing to change current law, about 26 million Americans will owe more in tax for 2008 because of the AMT, up from around four million for 2007.

Congress also hasn’t taken action yet to revive several popular tax breaks that expired at the end of last year. However, the Senate agreement announced Tuesday includes extensions of expired provisions such as the option to deduct state and local sales taxes, instead of state and local income taxes, when itemizing deductions.

In most cases, ordinary taxable income of more than $372,950 for 2009 will be taxed at the top federal income-tax rate of 35%. That’s up from $357,700 for 2008. (For more details, see the accompanying table.)

The basic standard deduction is expected to rise to $11,400 for married couples filing jointly. That’s a $500 increase from $10,900 in 2008 — and well above the $200 increase for 2008, compared with 2007. For singles and those who file separately, the basic standard deduction amount will rise to $5,700 from $5,450 in 2008. These are known as “basic” standard deductions since there are additional amounts for the elderly and blind.

The personal exemption amount is expected to increase to $3,650 from $3,500 in 2008.

Two stealth taxes will start at higher income levels. For example, consider the itemized-deduction limit. In essence, you lose part of certain itemized deductions once your income exceeds a certain level, which is adjusted each year for inflation. For 2009, most taxpayers will begin to lose some of the value of certain itemized deductions once their adjusted gross income exceeds $166,800. That’s up from $159,950 for 2008. Calculating the reduction in both itemized deductions and personal exemptions can be complex. See the IRS instructions for more details or use tax-preparation software.

Mr. Jones of CCH notes that other tax-law provisions aren’t adjusted for inflation and stay the same. Among them is the annual limit on net capital losses, which many investors this week may wish were much larger. Here’s how it works: Investors typically can offset capital gains with capital losses on a dollar-for-dollar basis. If your losses exceed your gains, you typically can deduct as much as $3,000 of those net capital losses each year ($1,500 if married and filing separately). Additional amounts are carried over into future years. Those limits haven’t budged for many years.
* * *

More tipsters, lured by big rewards, contact the IRS.

A law enacted in 2006 offers sharply higher rewards to informants in cases involving large amounts of tax cheating and other violations. That law has helped generate a torrent of tips, according to a report issued Tuesday by the IRS Oversight Board.

In the first eight months of this year, the IRS “has been contacted by more than 800 whistleblowers with cases that allege $2 million or more in unpaid taxes,” the report said.
———————————————————–

Posted in Financial Planning | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The Evolution of a Political Talking Point

Genesis of an attack and rebuttal:

  • McCain ad attacks Obama as voting for a bill which teaches sex education to kindergartners.
  • Obama denies it and asserts that the bill was intended to inform kindergartners about inappropriate touching.
  • Talking points are distributed. Democrat’s call ad a lie and Republican’s, on the defensive, basically counter that Democrat’s lie too.
  • Mainstream media determines that a tipping point has been reached. This ad represented an attack for which there was no defense. McCain’s campaign is strongly criticized, as well as the candidate on a personal basis.

Unfortunately, few involved seem to have read the Illinois State bill. Except for Byron York from National Review. Here are his main points:

  1. Bill designed to ensure that factual sexual information, not generalities, was taught to children.
  2. Bill designed to lower the age of kids exposed to sexual education from 6th grade to kindergarten.
  3. Bill designed to remove ‘value-laden’ language and replace it with ‘progressive’ language – e.g. topic of abstinence tied to HIV awareness.
  4. No mention in the bill, or in the press release describing the bill, what is intended to be taught to kindergartners, aside from noting that it should be age appropriate.
  5. The age appropriate limitation was intended to allow for different standards between urban and rural neighborhoods.
  6. Planned Parenthood was the key lobbyist for the bill.
  7. Sen Obama’s stated purpose for supporting the bill can be traced to his 2004 Senate race against Alan Keyes.

Mr York’s summary:

Obama’s explanation for his vote has been accepted by nearly all commentators. And perhaps that is indeed why he voted for Senate Bill 99, although we don’t know for sure. But we do know that the bill itself was much more than that. The fact is, the bill’s intention was to mandate that issues like contraception and the prevention of sexually-transmitted diseases be included in sex-education classes for children before the sixth grade, and as early as kindergarten. Obama’s defenders may howl, but the bill is what it is.


————————————————————————————–
National Review – 9/16/08
On Sex-Ed Ad, McCain Is Right
What was that Illinois sex-education bill really about?

By Byron York

In recent days, a consensus has developed among the Obama campaign and commentators in the press that John McCain has decided to lie his way to the White House. Exhibit A in this new consensus is McCain’s ad, released last week, claiming that Barack Obama’s “one accomplishment” in the field of education was “legislation to teach ‘comprehensive sex education’ to kindergartners.”

Within moments of the ad’s appearance, the Obama campaign called it “shameful and downright perverse.” The legislation in question, a bill in the Illinois State Senate that was supported but not sponsored by Obama, was, according to Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton, “written to protect young children from sexual predators” and had nothing to do with comprehensive sex education for kindergartners. In a stinging final shot, Burton added, “Last week, John McCain told Time magazine he couldn’t define what honor was. Now we know why.”

Newspaper, magazine, and television commentators quickly piled on. “The kindergarten ad flat-out lies,” wrote the New York Times, arguing that “at most, kindergarteners were to be taught the dangers of sexual predators.” The Washington Post wrote that “McCain’s ‘Education’ Spot is Dishonest, Deceptive.” And in a column in The Hill, the influential blogger Josh Marshall called the sex-education spot “a rancid, race-baiting ad based on [a] lie. Willie Horton looks mild by comparison.”

The condemnation has been so widespread that the Obama campaign has begun to sense success in placing the “McCain-is-a-liar” storyline in the press. But before accepting the story at face value, it might first be a good idea to examine the bill in question, look at the statements made by its supporters at the time it was introduced, talk to its sponsors today (at least the ones who will consent to speak), and find answers to a few basic questions. What were the bill’s provisions? Why was it written? Was it really just, or even mostly, about inappropriate advances? And the bottom-line question: Is McCain’s characterization of it unfair?

21st-CENTURY SEX EDUCATION
The bill in question was Senate Bill 99, introduced in the Senate in February 2003. Its broad purpose was to change and update portions of Illinois’s existing laws concerning sex education. (The text of the bill is here, and everyone interested in the issue should take a look at it.)

When the bill was introduced, a coalition of groups including the Illinois Public Health Association, the Illinois State Medical Society, the Cook County Department of Public Health, the Chicago Department of Public Health, the Illinois Planned Parenthood Council and others issued a press release headlined “Coalition of Legislators, Physicians and Organizations Bring Illinois Into the 21st Century with Omnibus Healthcare Package.” It was a three-part campaign; Senate Bill 99, covering “medically accurate sex education,” was the first part, with two other bills addressing “funding for family planning services for women in need” and “contraceptive equity in health insurance.”

According to the press release, Senate Bill 99 required that “if a public school teaches sex education, family life education, and comprehensive health education courses, all materials and instruction must be medically and factually accurate.” The bill’s main sponsor, Sen. Carol Ronen, was quoted saying, “It teaches students about the advantages of abstinence, while also giving them the realistic information they need about the prevention of an unintended pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections.” The release contained no mention of sexual predators or inappropriate touching.

What, specifically, was the bill designed to do? It appears to have had three major purposes:

The first, as Ronen indicated, was to mandate that information presented in sex-ed classes be “factual,” “medically accurate,” and “objective.”

The second purpose was to increase the number of children receiving sex education. Illinois’ existing law required the teaching of sex education and AIDS prevention in grades six through twelve. The old law read:

Each class or course in comprehensive sex education offered in any of grades 6 through 12 shall include instruction on the prevention, transmission and spread of AIDS.

Senate Bill 99 struck out grade six, changing it to kindergarten, in addition to making a few other changes in wording. It read:

Each class or course in comprehensive sex education in any of grades K through 12 shall include instruction on the prevention of sexually transmitted infections, including the prevention, transmission and spread of HIV.

The bill’s third purpose was to remove value-laden language in the old law. For example, the old law contained passages like this:

Course material and instruction shall teach honor and respect for monogamous heterosexual marriage.
Course material and instruction shall stress that pupils should abstain from sexual intercourse until they are ready for marriage…
[Classes] shall emphasize that abstinence is the expected norm in that abstinence from sexual intercourse is the only protection that is 100 percent effective against unwanted teenage pregnancy [and] sexually transmitted diseases…

The proposed bill eliminated all those passages and replaced them with wording like this:

Course material and instruction shall include a discussion of sexual abstinence as a method to prevent unintended pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections, including HIV.
Course material and instruction shall present the latest medically factual information regarding both the possible side effects and health benefits of all forms of contraception, including the success and failure rates for the prevention of pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections, including HIV…

The bill gave parents and guardians the right to take their children out of sex-ed classes by presenting written objections. The bill also specified that “all sex education courses that discuss sexual activity or behavior…be age and developmentally appropriate.” And, after covering a number of other provisions, the bill addressed the issue of inappropriate advances:

Course material and instruction shall teach pupils to not make unwanted physical and verbal sexual advances and how to say no to unwanted sexual advances and shall include information about verbal, physical, and visual sexual harassment, including without limitation nonconsensual sexual advances, nonconsensual physical sexual contact, and rape by an acquaintance. The course material and instruction shall contain methods of preventing sexual assault by an acquaintance, including exercising good judgment and avoiding behavior that impairs one’s judgment. The course material and instruction shall emphasize personal accountability and respect for others and shall also encourage youth to resist negative peer pressure. The course material and instruction shall inform pupils of the potential legal consequences of sexual assault by an acquaintance. Specifically, pupils shall be advised that it is unlawful to touch an intimate part of another person as specified in the Criminal Code of 1961.

The wording of that provision suggests lawmakers were at least as concerned with protecting children from each other as from adults, and it doesn’t seem directed toward the youngest children, as Obama maintained. But there is no doubt that the bill did address the question of inappropriate touching. On the other hand, there is also no doubt that, looking at the overall bill, the “touching” provision did not have the prominence that Team Obama has suggested it had, and it certainly wasn’t the bill’s main purpose.

TOUCHY SUBJECT
After the ad controversy erupted, I asked the Obama campaign to suggest who I might interview for more information. I particularly wanted some sort of contemporaneous account showing that Obama voted for the bill because of its inappropriate-touching provision. The campaign suggested I call Ken Swanson, who is head of the Illinois Education Association and a 20-year veteran of teaching sixth-graders.

“The intent of the language and inclusion of kindergarten was simply to make it possible to offer age-appropriate, not comprehensive, information for kindergartners so that those young children could be given basic information so that they would be aware of inappropriate behavior by adults,” Swanson told me. “Certainly, it was never intended to be some sort of inappropriate information that might be appropriate for junior high or high school students.” McCain’s accusation, Swanson told me, was “bogus.”

I suggested to Swanson that the bill seemed to provide for HIV education for youngsters before the sixth grade, and perhaps as early as kindergarten. “As I recall the discussion, there was a conversation where in different places in the state — that was something that should be left to local circumstances,” Swanson told me. “What might be appropriate in an urban inner city might not be appropriate in a rural community. I don’t recall anybody, from our perspective, having a one-rule-fits-all vision.”

Swanson suggested that if I wanted to know more I should get in touch with the bill’s sponsors. There were five — State Senator Ronen, as well as Sens. M. Maggie Crotty, Susan Garrett, Iris Martinez, and Jeffrey Schoenberg. All were from the greater Chicago area. But getting in touch with them was easier said than done.

Ronen has left the Illinois state senate. When I called her home, I reached a woman who did not give me her name but told me she knew how to reach Ronen. I gave her my information, but there has been no call back, nor has Ronen answered a number of follow-up calls.

An assistant in Garrett’s office helpfully gave me the senator’s cell-phone number, so I was able to have a few brief conversations with her. In one, she said she couldn’t talk and asked me to call back in a few minutes. I did, and then did again, and ended up doing so several times over an extended period, all without an answer. The next day, I reached Garrett again, who told me that since the debate took place five years ago, she couldn’t speak about it “unless I have the bill in front of me . . . I’d be happy to do that if I could just print out the bill . . . I just want to be sure I get it right.” We agreed that I would email her the bill, but after I did, she didn’t answer the phone. She still hasn’t.

I’ve gotten no response from Crotty or Schoenberg.

That leaves Sen. Martinez, who was kind enough to speak to me by phone Monday afternoon. Martinez began by saying that the bill was indeed about inappropriate touching. “We know that young children, very, very young, have things happen to them that they don’t speak about,” Martinez told me. “It’s important that we teach our young kids very, very young to speak up.”

When I asked Martinez the rationale for changing grade six to kindergarten, she said that groups like Planned Parenthood and the Cook County Department of Health — both major contributors to the bill — “were finding that there were children younger than the sixth grade that were being inappropriately touched or molested.” When I asked about the elimination of references to marriage and the contraception passages, Martinez said that the changes were “based on some of the information we got from Planned Parenthood.”

After we discussed other aspects of the bill, I told Martinez that reading the bill, I just didn’t see it as being exclusively, or even mostly, about inappropriate touching. “I didn’t see it that way, either,” Martinez said. “It’s just more information about a whole variety of things that have to go into a sex education class, the things that are outdated that you want to amend with things that are much more current.”

So, I asked, you didn’t see it specifically as being about inappropriate touching?

“Absolutely not.”

“THAT WASN’T WHAT I HAD IN MIND”
The controversy over the McCain sex-ed ad is a rerun of a similar controversy that erupted in the 2004 Illinois Senate race, when Obama’s opponent, the Republican transplant Alan Keyes, brought up the same issue. In a debate that year, when Keyes accused Obama of supporting sex education for kindergartners, Obama answered, “Actually, that wasn’t what I had in mind. We have a existing law that mandates sex education in the schools. We want to make sure that it’s medically accurate and age-appropriate. Now, I’ll give you an example, because I have a six-year-old daughter and a three-year-old daughter, and one of the things my wife and I talked to our daughter about is the possibility of somebody touching them inappropriately, and what that might mean. And that was included specifically in the law, so that kindergarteners are able to exercise some possible protection against abuse, because I have family members as well as friends who suffered abuse at that age. So, that’s the kind of stuff that I was talking about in that piece of legislation.”

Obama’s explanation for his vote has been accepted by nearly all commentators. And perhaps that is indeed why he voted for Senate Bill 99, although we don’t know for sure. But we do know that the bill itself was much more than that. The fact is, the bill’s intention was to mandate that issues like contraception and the prevention of sexually-transmitted diseases be included in sex-education classes for children before the sixth grade, and as early as kindergarten. Obama’s defenders may howl, but the bill is what it is.

Byron York, NR’s White House correspondent, is the author of the book The Vast Left Wing Conspiracy: The Untold Story of How Democratic Operatives, Eccentric Billionaires, Liberal Activists, and Assorted Celebrities Tried to Bring Down a President — and Why They’ll Try Even Harder Next Time.
———————————————————————————-

——————————————————————————

Posted in Current Affairs & History | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Wall Street’s Crisis, More Bubble Wrap Than Balloon

I keep hearing that the credit bubble has popped. But since there is a lot of popping going on, it’s time to shift the metaphor from a balloon to bubble wrap.

Perception:

  • The recent Wall Street crisis is attributable to deregulation and greed.

Economic Reality:

  • Greed – If an unusually large number of airplanes crash during a given week, do you blame gravity? No. Greed, like gravity, is a constant. It can’t explain why the number of crashes is higher than usual.
  • Deregulation – There has been no deregulation in the last decade. On the contrary, we’ve had a strengthening of the Community Reinvestment Act, which has encouraged banks to make mortgage loans to borrowers who previously would have been rejected as non-creditworthy. And we’ve had the imposition of Basel II capital requirements, which have encouraged banks to game the accounting system through quasi-off-balance-sheet vehicles, unhelpfully reducing balance sheet transparency.

That very point was made in the NY Times by economist Tyler Cowen:

There is a misconception that President Bush’s years in office have been characterized by a hands-off approach to regulation. In large part, this myth stems from the rhetoric of the president and his appointees, who have emphasized the costly burdens that regulation places on business.

But the reality has been very different: continuing heavy regulation, with a growing loss of accountability and effectiveness. That’s dysfunctional governance, not laissez-faire.

For a better perspective, we should always turn to the editorial page of the WSJ – all articles referenced in this post are copied in full at end of post:

We’re happy to report that the world didn’t end yesterday, though sometimes it was hard to tell. A major Wall Street banking house filed for bankruptcy, the taxpayers didn’t come to the rescue, and financial markets lurched but didn’t crash. Amid the current panic, this is a salutary lesson that our fate is in our own hands and that a deeper downturn is far from inevitable.

The immediate priority is to calm markets and prevent a crash, and to do so it helps to recall how we got here. We are not living through some “crisis of capitalism,” unless policy blunders make it so. Nor is this largely the fault of the Bush Administration, as Barack Obama claims, or of some lack of regulation, as John McCain asserts. These politically convenient riffs do nothing to reassure the public.

The current panic is the ugly aftermath of the credit mania that took flight in the middle years of this decade.

For a slightly different perspective, economist Jeremy Siegel:

We can argue about who was responsible for the overleveraging of the financial industry and the poor to nonexistent credit standards that prevailed in real estate. Certainly the regulatory agencies, including the Federal Reserve, should have sounded a warning. But the lion’s share of the blame must go to the heads of the financial firms that issued and held these flawed credit instruments and then, in many cases, “doubled down” by buying more when their price was falling.

Overleveraging has been the cause of many past financial crises, and will undoubtedly be the cause of those in the future. It was the cause of the 1998 blowup of Long Term Capital Management, where the Fed also intervened to prevent a crisis. Then two years later the tech and Internet boom burst.

A Possible Solution, again from the WSJ, with an assist from Paul Volcker:

Which leads us to suggest another Resolution Trust Corp. as one more tool to calm financial markets. The first RTC helped to buy, stabilize and liquidate troubled assets amid the savings and loan mess of the late 1980s. Then it blessedly went out of business. Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker endorsed an RTC II yesterday in a speech in Naples, Florida, and we suspect the idea will gain more traction. He said he “reluctantly” embraced the idea for “dealing with the market breakdown, breaking the logjam of mortgages and other assets of uncertain value [and] restoring a sense of reasonable valuation and market confidence.”


—————————————————————————————
WSJ Editorial
REVIEW & OUTLOOK
SEPTEMBER 16, 2008

Surviving the Panic

We’re happy to report that the world didn’t end yesterday, though sometimes it was hard to tell. A major Wall Street banking house filed for bankruptcy, the taxpayers didn’t come to the rescue, and financial markets lurched but didn’t crash. Amid the current panic, this is a salutary lesson that our fate is in our own hands and that a deeper downturn is far from inevitable.

The immediate priority is to calm markets and prevent a crash, and to do so it helps to recall how we got here. We are not living through some “crisis of capitalism,” unless policy blunders make it so. Nor is this largely the fault of the Bush Administration, as Barack Obama claims, or of some lack of regulation, as John McCain asserts. These politically convenient riffs do nothing to reassure the public.

The current panic is the ugly aftermath of the credit mania that took flight in the middle years of this decade. As students of economic historian Charles Kindleberger know (“Panics, Manias, and Crashes”), financial manias throughout history have shared one trait: the excessive expansion of credit. This bubble was no different.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates too low for too long, creating a subsidy for debt and a global commodity price spike. The excess liquidity and capital flows this spurred became the fuel for the wizards on Wall Street and in mortgage-finance who created new financial instruments that in turn fueled the housing bubble. As long as it lasted, nearly everyone inhaled the euphoria of rising asset prices and soaring profits. Normal risk assessment gave way to the excesses that always attend manias.

Enter the panic stage, or the great deleveraging that began some 13 months ago. Fear now trumps greed, while the short-seller and cash are kings. The core of our financial problem, as Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said yesterday, is that these mortgage instruments are underpinned by real-estate assets whose value keeps declining. Until home prices stabilize, no one knows how large the losses will be. Thus no one is sure which financial companies are truly endangered, or how many.

Amid this turmoil and uncertainty, the challenge for policy makers is twofold: Protect the overall financial system from the fallout of individual bank failures, and protect the larger economy from recession caused by financial distress. They each require different policy levers.

On the finance side, there has already been much progress, albeit not enough. The banking system is reforming itself right before our eyes, without the advice of Congress or new regulation. The days of banks running with leverage at 30 or 40 to 1 are over. The companies that took those risks have either failed (Bear Stearns, Lehman) or been absorbed by others (Merrill Lynch, Countrywide). The SIVs, CDOs and other exotic creatures have been put back on balance sheets, losses have been taken, and new capital has been raised to absorb those losses. We are moving to a sturdier system.

On that score, Lehman’s bankruptcy filing is another sign of progress. The Treasury and Fed have signaled they can say no. While Lehman’s failure has spooked markets, the lesson that a storied investment house can fail without a federal rescue is its own crash course in risk management. The weekend decision by a group of major banks to establish a common fund to borrow against is also hopeful. The banks, which each anted up $7 billion to be part of this private lending fund, realize that acting in concert can serve their self-interest — a lesson that J.P. Morgan would have applauded in the Panic of 1907.

And yet the financial system will remain fragile as long as asset values keep declining. More major bank failures are a certainty, including some very large ones. That means more Sunday soap operas like this month’s, with all of the anxiety that inspires among the public. The longer these melodramas continue, the greater the risk of a recession.

Which leads us to suggest another Resolution Trust Corp. as one more tool to calm financial markets. The first RTC helped to buy, stabilize and liquidate troubled assets amid the savings and loan mess of the late 1980s. Then it blessedly went out of business. Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker endorsed an RTC II yesterday in a speech in Naples, Florida, and we suspect the idea will gain more traction. He said he “reluctantly” embraced the idea for “dealing with the market breakdown, breaking the logjam of mortgages and other assets of uncertain value [and] restoring a sense of reasonable valuation and market confidence.”

Yes, this would require a Congressional appropriation, and in that sense it would cost taxpayers. But by now it should be clear that some taxpayer money is going to be needed, if only to pay off insured depositors at failing banks. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has already said it may need to borrow from its Treasury line of credit, and that’s based on what could be optimistic estimates about home prices.

The taxpayer is also currently at risk through the Fed, which has become ever more creative with its use of the discount window. Its new lending facilities have been necessary amid this crisis, but they have also meant that the Fed is accepting ever-dodgier paper as collateral. Over the weekend it agreed to take non-investment grade paper. The danger is that all of this will put the Fed’s own balance sheet at risk — which would mean even bigger trouble. Better to put this bad mortgage paper on the Treasury side of the federal balance sheet.

Meanwhile, a new RTC would provide a buyer for securities for which there is no market, set a floor under the market, hold the securities until markets stabilize, and liquidate them in an orderly fashion, perhaps at a profit. Failed institutions and managers would not be bailed out. There’s always a risk that the politicians will meddle, which is one reason for the Bush Administration to do this now so it can insist on enough political insulation.

As for the larger economy, the last 13 months are a guide to what not to do. The Fed recklessly cut interest rates, while Congress and the White House dropped “rebate” checks from helicopters. The rate cuts ignited another oil and commodity spike that walloped middle-class consumers, while the rebates did nothing to change incentives or lift investment.

We hope the Fed heeds this lesson and holds firm on rates today. Yesterday it injected $70 billion in liquidity to stabilize the fed fund rate at its peg of 2%, as it should in a crisis. But that money can be withdrawn over time as the crisis eases. Meanwhile, a more cautious monetary policy overall will help the dollar, which in turn will mean lower oil prices and more capital flows to the U.S.

What the economy really needs is a big pro-growth tax cut, the kind that will restore confidence and risk-taking. This is an opportunity for both candidates, but especially for Mr. McCain. Instead of focusing on an extension of the Bush tax cuts, the Arizonan should offer his own tax cut to revive capital markets and prevent a recession. Democrats will claim he’s helping “the rich,” but our guess is that every American who owns a 401(k) will figure he’s one of those “rich.”

One great lesson of past panics is that they needn’t become crashes, if policy makers make the right decisions. Thirteen months into this crisis, the best choices are the same as they were last August: energetic emergency plumbing to protect the financial system, steady monetary policy to defend the dollar, and a tax cut to spur growth. It’s also the kind of agenda — and leadership — that could win an election.
—————————————————————————————
WSJ – SEPTEMBER 16, 2008
The Resilience of American Finance
By JEREMY J. SIEGEL

The turmoil in the financial markets will reorganize the financial landscape. But this does not mean the financial industry will shrink dramatically. In fact the current crisis could well lead to an increase in the demand for financial services, as the world grapples with the need for new financial instruments, new risk management techniques, and the increasing complexity of the financial world.

There is no doubt that some of the most hallowed names in the industry, such as Bear Stearns, Merrill, Lehman and others will disappear as separate entities. Their demise was caused by bad risk management, and a failure to understand the high risks of an overheated real-estate market, the root cause of our current problems.

We can argue about who was responsible for the overleveraging of the financial industry and the poor to nonexistent credit standards that prevailed in real estate. Certainly the regulatory agencies, including the Federal Reserve, should have sounded a warning. But the lion’s share of the blame must go to the heads of the financial firms that issued and held these flawed credit instruments and then, in many cases, “doubled down” by buying more when their price was falling.

Overleveraging has been the cause of many past financial crises, and will undoubtedly be the cause of those in the future. It was the cause of the 1998 blowup of Long Term Capital Management, where the Fed also intervened to prevent a crisis. Then two years later the tech and Internet boom burst. If banks would have been allowed to buy on leverage these stocks during the bubble, they would have been in even more trouble than now.

But few were willing to admit that subprime real-estate loans could be as risky as stocks. It was just too profitable to issue these mortgages. So eyes were closed and the money kept pouring in. Groupthink prevailed. To paraphrase John Maynard Keynes, it is much easier for a man to fail conventionally than to stand against the crowd and speak the truth.

There is no doubt in my mind that if we didn’t have a proactive Federal Reserve and deposit insurance, we would have been following the same course as we did in the 1930s, when the bursting of the stock bubble and fear of loan defaults led to thousands of bank failures and ushered in the Great Depression.

That will not happen this time. The rapid provisions of liquidity by the Fed will prevent any full scale downturn. In fact, I take it as a mark of confidence in our financial system that the Fed did not feel compelled to bail out Lehman Brothers as they did last March when they folded Bear Stearns into J.P. Morgan. Certainly politics played a role in this election year, as critics (and some Congressmen) criticized the government for bailing out the big boys, while letting homeowners twist in the wind.

Despite the recent turmoil, there is good evidence that the worst is over, especially for the commercial banks with access to Federal Reserve credit. Despite yesterday’s severe sell-off, most are significantly higher than their July 15 low, and some such as Wells Fargo and UBS are up over 50%.

Nevertheless, the current crisis will change the financial landscape. Certainly Bear, Merrill, Lehman and others will disappear as separate corporate entitles. But other institutions, specifically the commercial banks that absorb these firms, and who have direct access to Federal Reserve credit, will become larger.

The demand for financial services will in no way disappear as the automobile pushed out the horse and buggy a century ago. Although unemployment on Wall Street will undoubtedly rise, many workers will be reabsorbed elsewhere in the industry. The current financial crisis calls out for new products and services as well as more, not less, information about what is safe and profitable in the future environment.

It is easy to be pessimistic about the future of financial services in the current climate. But objective facts indicate that the future demand for these services will be high. Looking beyond past losses, the demand for financial services, especially internationally, has been strong. The growth of the developing countries, combined with the aging in the developed countries, will lead to huge international capital flows that will be facilitated by new and existing financial intermediaries.

It is shocking that firms that withstood the Great Depression are now failing in what economists might not even call a recession. But their failure was not caused by lack of demand for their services. It was caused by management’s unwillingness to understand and face the risks of the investments they made. The names of the players will change, but the future growth of the financial services industry is assured.

Mr. Siegel, a professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, is the author of “Stocks for the Long Run,” now in its 4th edition from McGraw-Hill.
—————————————————————————
New York Times
September 14, 2008
Economic View
Too Few Regulations? No, Just Ineffective Ones
By TYLER COWEN

THERE is a misconception that President Bush’s years in office have been characterized by a hands-off approach to regulation. In large part, this myth stems from the rhetoric of the president and his appointees, who have emphasized the costly burdens that regulation places on business.

But the reality has been very different: continuing heavy regulation, with a growing loss of accountability and effectiveness. That’s dysfunctional governance, not laissez-faire.

When it comes to financial regulation, for example, until the crisis of the last few months, the administration did little to alter a regulatory structure that was built over many decades. Banks continue to be governed by a hodgepodge of rules and agencies including the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the international Basel accords on capital standards, state authorities, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Publicly traded banks, like other corporations, are subject to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.

And legislation that has been on the books for years — like the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act and the Community Reinvestment Act — helped to encourage the proliferation of high-risk mortgage loans. Perhaps the biggest long-term distortion in the housing market came from the tax code: the longstanding deduction for mortgage interest, which encouraged overinvestment in real estate.

In short, there was plenty of regulation — yet much of it made the problem worse. These laws and institutions should have reined in bank risk while encouraging financial transparency, but did not. This deficiency — not a conscientious laissez-faire policy — is where the Bush administration went wrong.

It would be unfair, however, to blame the Republicans alone for these regulatory failures. The Democrats have a long history of uncritically favoring expansion of homeownership, which contributed to the excesses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the humbled mortgage giants.

The privatization of Fannie Mae dates back to the Johnson administration, which wanted to get the agency’s debt off its books. But now, of course, the government is on the hook for the agency’s debt. As late as this spring, Congressional Democrats were pushing for weaker capital requirements for the mortgage agencies. The regulatory reality was that few politicians were willing to exchange short-term economic gains — namely, higher rates of homeownership — for protection against longer-term financial risks.

Still, the Bush administration’s many critiques of regulation are belied by the numbers, which demonstrate a strong interest in continued and, indeed, expanded regulation. This is the lesson of a recent study, “Regulatory Agency Spending Reaches New Height,” by Veronique de Rugy, senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, and Melinda Warren, director of the Weidenbaum Center Forum at Washington University. (Disclosure: Ms. de Rugy’s participation in this study was under my supervision.) For the proposed 2009 fiscal budget, spending by regulatory agencies is to grow by 6.4 percent, similar to the growth rate for last year, and continuing a long-term expansionary trend.

For the regulatory category of finance and banking, inflation-adjusted expenditures have risen 43.5 percent from 1990 to 2008. It is not unusual for the Federal Register to publish 70,000 or more pages of new regulations each year.

In other words, financial regulation has produced a lot of laws and a lot of spending but poor priorities and little success in using the most important laws to head off a disaster. The pattern is reminiscent of how legislators often seem more interested in building new highways — which are highly visible projects — than in maintaining old ones.

The biggest financial deregulation in recent times has been an implicit one — namely, that hedge funds and many new exotic financial instruments have grown in importance but have remained largely unregulated. To be sure, these institutions contributed to the severity of the Bear Stearns crisis and to the related global credit crisis. But it’s not obvious that the less regulated financial sector performed any worse than the highly regulated housing and bank mortgage lending sectors, including, of course, the government-sponsored mortgage agencies.

In other words, the regulation that we have didn’t work very well.

There are two ways to view this history. First, with the benefit of hindsight, one could argue that we needed only a stronger political will to regulate every corner of finance and avert a crisis.

Under the second view, which I prefer, regulators will never be in a position to accurately evaluate or second-guess many of the most important market transactions. In finance, trillions of dollars change hands, market players are very sophisticated, and much of the activity takes place outside the United States — or easily could.

Under these circumstances, the real issue is setting strong regulatory priorities to prevent outright fraud and to encourage market transparency, given that government scrutiny will never be universal or even close to it. Identifying underregulated sectors in hindsight isn’t a useful guide for what to do the next time.

Both presidential candidates have endorsed regulatory reform, but they have yet to signal that it will become a priority. That isn’t surprising. Fixing these problems may seem a very abstract way of helping the average citizen, and it will certainly require taking on special interests. It’s easier to tell voters that the regulators have taken care of last year’s problem, even if that accomplishes nothing for the future.

In the meantime, if you hear a call for more regulation, without a clear explanation of why regulation failed in the past, beware. The odds are that we’ll get additional regulation but with even less accountability and even less focus on solving our very real economic problems.

Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University.
—————————————————————————

Tagged | Leave a comment

Role of Fair Value Acg in the Subprime Meltdown

The problem is summarized by Peter Wallison of AEI:

When the dotcoms were in vogue, the assets of securities firms and other equity intermediaries were inflated, just as, more recently, rising housing values made banks and other mortgage lenders look flush. Inflated balance sheets and income statements supported more borrowing and more leverage; suddenly, the markets were awash in liquidity and risk premiums fell to unprecedented levels. It could be argued, then, that fair value accounting was the hothouse in which these bubbles bloomed; when prices are rising this system seems both to stimulate and ride the wave of irrational exuberance.

But matters look much less agreeable when the same asset values are falling. Then, the process works in reverse, and the spiral points downwards.

As assets fall in value, leverage rises, creditors and counterparties demand more collateral coverage, and companies must sell assets that they can no longer finance. Forced asset sales drive down prices, causing further writedowns of assets under fair value principles–even for those who are not selling.

And so it goes on. The downward spiral is continuing as this is written, and where it stops nobody knows. Fair value accounting also has a one-size-fits-all quality that mimics the inflexibility of over-regulation.

It is very telling to note that Mr Wallison does not attempt a specific suggestion with what to replace fair value accounting with. You know there is great confusion when the SEC feels the need to step in and give ‘tips’ on how to report balance sheet items to companies with the best accountants money can buy.

Here’s a defense of fair value accounting from an industry insider, Michael Young in the Journal of Accountancy:

So the subprime experience with fair value accounting has given the naysayers some genuine experiences with which to make their case.

Still, the subprime experience also demonstrates that there are two legitimate sides to this debate. For the difficulties in financial markets were not purely the consequences of an accounting system. They were, more fundamentally, the economic consequences of a market in which a bubble had burst.

And advocates of fair value can point to one aspect of fair value accounting—and Statement no. 157 in particular—that is pretty much undeniable. It has given outside investors real-time insight into market gyrations of the sort that, under old accounting regimes, only insiders could see. True, trying to deal with those gyrations can be difficult and the consequences are not always desirable. But that is just another way of saying that ignorance is bliss.

So dear reader, if you’ve made it this far into the post you have gained an important piece of knowledge, namely why it is so tempting to be have a liberal political mindset. It is much more satisfying to have bad and greedy people to blame for problems, instead of figuring out whether its preferable to use ‘fair’ or ‘historical’ values for financial reporting purposes.

——————————————————————————————————————-
The Role of Fair Value Accounting in the Subprime Mortgage Meltdown

As the credit markets froze and stocks gyrated, investors and pundits naturally looked for someone, or some thing, to blame. Fair value accounting quickly emerged as an oft-cited problem. But is fair value really a cause of the crisis, or is it just a scapegoat? And might it have prevented an even worse calamity? On the following pages, the JofA presents three views on the debate.

Both Sides Make Good Points

by Michael R. Young

How often do we get to have a raging national debate on an accounting standard? Well, we’re in one now.

And while the standard at issue—FASB Statement no. 157, Fair Value Measurements—is fairly new, the underlying substance of the debate goes back for decades: Is it best to record assets at their cost or at their fair (meaning market) value? It is an issue that goes to the very heart of accountancy and stirs passions like few others in financial reporting. There are probably two reasons for this. First, each side of the debate has excellent points to make. Second, each side genuinely believes what it is saying.

So let’s step back, take a deep breath, and think about the issue with all of the objectivity we can muster. The good news is that the events of the last several months involving subprime-related financial instruments give us an opportunity to evaluate the extent to which fair value accounting has, or has not, served the financial community. Indeed, some might point out that the experience has been all too vivid.

WHAT HAPPENED
We’re all familiar with what happened. This past summer, two Bear Stearns funds ran into problems, and the result was increasing financial community uncertainty about the value of mortgage backed financial instruments, particularly collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). As investors tried to delve into the details of the value of CDO assets and the reliability of their cash flows, the extraordinary complexity of the instruments provided a significant impediment to insight into the underlying financial data.

As a result, the markets seized. In other words, everyone got so nervous that active trading in many instruments all but stopped.

The practical significance of the market seizure was all too apparent to both owners of the instruments and newspaper readers. What was largely missed behind the scenes, though, was the accounting significance under Statement no. 157, which puts in place a “fair value hierarchy” that prioritizes the inputs to valuation techniques according to their objectivity and observability (see also “Refining Fair Value Measurement,” JofA, Nov. 07, page 30). At the top of the hierarchy are “Level 1 inputs” which generally involve quoted prices in active markets. At the bottom are “Level 3 inputs” in which no active markets exist.

The accounting significance of the market seizure for subprime financial instruments was that the approach to valuation for many instruments almost overnight dropped from Level 1 to Level 3. The problem was that, because many CDOs to that point had been valued based on Level 1, established models for valuing the instruments at Level 3 were not in place. Just as all this was happening, moreover, another well-intended aspect of our financial reporting system kicked in: the desire to report fast-breaking financial developments to investors quickly.

To those unfamiliar with the underlying accounting literature, the result must have looked like something between pandemonium and chaos. They watched as some of the most prestigious financial organizations in the world announced dramatic write downs, followed by equally dramatic write downs thereafter. Stock market volatility returned with a vengeance. Financial institutions needed to raise more capital. And many investors watched with horror as the value of both their homes and stock portfolios seemed to move in parallel in the wrong direction.

To some, this was all evidence that fair value accounting is a folly. Making that argument with particular conviction were those who had no intention of selling the newly plummeting financial instruments to begin with. Even those intending to sell suspected that the write-downs were being overdone and that the resulting volatility was serving no one. According to one managing director at a risk research firm, “All this volatility we now have in reporting and disclosure, it’s just absolute madness.”

IS FAIR VALUE GOOD OR BAD?
So what do we make of fair value accounting based on the subprime experience?

Foremost is that some of the challenges in the application of fair value accounting are just as difficult as some of its opponents said they would be. True, when subprime instruments were trading in active, observable markets, valuation did not pose much of a problem. But that changed all too suddenly when active markets disappeared and valuation shifted to Level 3. At that point, valuation models needed to be deployed which might potentially be influenced by such things as the future of housing prices, the future of interest rates, and how homeowners could be expected to react to such things.

The difficulties were exacerbated, moreover, by the suddenness with which active markets disappeared and the resulting need to put in place models just as pressure was building to get up-to-date information to investors. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that in some instances asset values had to be revised as models were being refined and adjusted.

Imperfect as the valuations may have been, though, the real-world consequences of the resulting volatility were all too concrete. Some of the world’s largest financial institutions, seemingly rock solid just a short time before, found themselves needing to raise new capital. In the aftermath of subprime instrument write-downs, one of the most prestigious institutions even found itself facing a level of uncertainty that resulted in what was characterized as a “run on the bank.”

So the subprime experience with fair value accounting has given the naysayers some genuine experiences with which to make their case.

Still, the subprime experience also demonstrates that there are two legitimate sides to this debate. For the difficulties in financial markets were not purely the consequences of an accounting system. They were, more fundamentally, the economic consequences of a market in which a bubble had burst.

And advocates of fair value can point to one aspect of fair value accounting—and Statement no. 157 in particular—that is pretty much undeniable. It has given outside investors real-time insight into market gyrations of the sort that, under old accounting regimes, only insiders could see. True, trying to deal with those gyrations can be difficult and the consequences are not always desirable. But that is just another way of saying that ignorance is bliss.

For fair value advocates, that may be their best argument of all. Whatever its faults, fair value accounting and Statement no. 157 have brought to the surface the reality of the difficulties surrounding subprime-related financial instruments. Is the fair value system perfect? No. Is there room for improvement? Inevitably. But those favoring fair value accounting may have one ultimate point to make. In bringing transparency to the aftermath of the housing bubble, it may be that, for all its imperfections, the accounting system has largely worked.

Michael R. Young is a partner in the New York based law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP, where he specializes in accounting irregularities and securities litigation. He served as a member of the Financial Accounting Standards Advisory Council to FASB during the development of FASB Statement no. 157. His e-mail address is myoung@willkie.com.
————————————————————————————-
The Capital Markets’ Needs Will Be Served

Fair value accounting limits bubbles rather than creates them.

by Paul B.W. Miller

With regard to the relationship between financial accounting and the subprime-lending crisis, I observe that the capital markets’ needs will be served, one way or another.

Grasping this imperative leads to new outlooks and behaviors for the better of all. In contrast to conventional dogma, capital markets cannot be managed through accounting policy choices and political pressure on standard setters. Yes, events show that markets can be duped, but not for long and not very well, and with inevitable disastrous consequences.

With regard to the crisis, attempts to place blame on accounting standards are not valid. Rather, other factors created it, primarily actors in the complex intermediation chain, including:

Borrowers who sought credit beyond their reach.

Borrowers who sought credit beyond their reach.

Investment bankers who earned fees for bundling and selling vaporous bonds without adequately disclosing risk.

Institutional investors who sought high returns without understanding the risk and real value.

In addition, housing markets collapsed, eliminating the backstop provided by collateral. Thus, claims that accounting standards fomented or worsened this crisis lack credibility.

The following paragraphs explain why fair value accounting promotes capital market efficiency.

THE GOAL OF FINANCIAL REPORTING
The goal of financial reporting, and all who act within it, is to facilitate convergence of securities’ market prices on their intrinsic values. When that happens, securities prices and capital costs appropriately reflect real risks and returns. This efficiency mutually benefits everyone: society, investors, managers and accountants.

Any other goals, such as inexpensive reporting, projecting positive images, and reducing auditors’ risk of recrimination, are misdirected. Because the markets’ demand for useful information will be satisfied, one way or another, it makes sense to reorient management strategy and accounting policy to provide that satisfaction.

THE PERSCRIPTION
The key to converging market and intrinsic values is understanding that more information, not less, is better. It does no good, and indeed does harm, to leave markets guessing. Reports must be informative and truthful, even if they’re not flattering.

To this end, all must grasp that financial information is favorable if it unveils truth more completely and faithfully instead of presenting an illusory better appearance. Covering up bad news isn’t possible, especially over the long run, and discovered duplicity brings catastrophe.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND
To reap full benefits, management and accountants must meet the markets’ needs. Instead, past attention was paid primarily to the needs of managers and accountants and what they wanted to supply with little regard to the markets’ demands. But progress always follows when demand is addressed. Toward this end, managers must look beyond preparation costs and consider the higher capital costs created when reports aren’t informative.

Above all, they must forgo misbegotten efforts to coax capital markets to overprice securities, especially by withholding truth from them. Instead, it’s time to build bridges to these markets, just as managers have accomplished with customers, employees and suppliers.

THE CONTENT
In this paradigm, the preferable information concerns fair values of assets and liabilities. Historical numbers are of no interest because they lack reliability for assessing future cash flows. That is, information’s reliability doesn’t come as much from its verifiability (evidenced by checks and invoices) as from its dependability for rational decision making. Although a cost is verifiable, it is unreliable because it is a sample of one that at best reflects past conditions. Useful information reveals what is now true, not what used to be.

It’s not just me: Sophisticated users have said this, over and over again. For example, on March 17, Georgene Palacky of the CFA Institute issued a press release, saying, “Fair value is the most transparent method of measuring financial instruments, such as derivatives, and is widely favored by investors.” This expressed demand should help managers understand that failing to provide value-based information forces markets to manufacture their own estimates. In turn, the markets defensively guess low for assets and high for liabilities. Rather than stable and higher securities prices, disregarding demand for truthful and useful information produces more volatile and lower prices that don’t converge on intrinsic values.

However it arises, a vacuum of useful public information is always filled by speculative private information, with an overall increase in uncertainty, cost, risk, volatility and capital costs. These outcomes are good for no one.

THE STRATEGY
Managers bring two things to capital markets: (1) prospective cash flows and (2) information. Their work isn’t done if they don’t produce quality in both. It does no good to present rosy pictures of inferior cash flow potential because the truth will eventually be known. And it does no good to have great potential if the financial reports obscure it.

Thus, managers need to unveil the truth about their situation, which is far different from designing reports to prop up false images. Even if well-intentioned, such efforts always fail, usually sooner rather than later.

It’s especially fruitless to mold standards to generate this propaganda because readers don’t believe the results. Capital markets choose whether to rely on GAAP financial statements, so it makes no sense to report anything that lacks usefulness. For the present situation, then, not reporting best estimates of fair value frustrates capital markets, creates more risk, diminishes demand for a company’s securities and drives prices even lower.

THE ROLE FOR ACCOUNTING REPORTING
Because this crisis wasn’t created by poor accounting, it won’t be relieved by worse accounting. Rather, the blame lies with inattention to CDOs’ risks and returns. It was bad management that led to losses, not bad standards.

In fact, value-based reporting did exactly what it was supposed to by unveiling risk and its consequences. It is pointless to condemn FASB for forcing these messages to be sent. Rather, we should all shut up, pay attention, and take steps to prevent other disasters.

That involves telling the truth, cleanly and clearly. It needs to be delivered quickly and completely, withholding nothing. Further, managers should not wait for a bureaucratic standard-setting process to tell them what truth to reveal, any more than carmakers should build their products to minimum compliance with government safety, mileage and pollution standards.

I cannot see how defenders of the status quo can rebut this point from Palacky’s press release: “…only when fair value is widely practiced will investors be able to accurately evaluate and price risk.”

THE FUTURE
Nothing can prevent speculative bubbles. However, the sunshine of truth, freely offered by management with timeliness, will certainly diminish their frequency and impact.

Any argument that restricting the flow of useful public information will solve the problem is totally dysfunctional. The markets’ demand for value-based information will be served, whether through public or private sources. It might as well be public.

Paul B.W. Miller, CPA, Ph.D., a professor of accounting at the University of Colorado, served on both FASB’s staff and the staff of the SEC’s ­Office of the Chief Accountant. He is also a member of the JofA’s Editorial Advisory Board. His e-mail address is pmiller@uccs.edu.
————————————————————————————-
The Need for Reliability in Accounting

Why historical cost is more reliable than fair value.

by Eugene H. Flegm

In 1976, FASB issued three documents for discussion: Tentative Conclusions on Objectives of Financial Statements of Business Enterprises; Scope and Implications of the Conceptual Framework Project; and Conceptual Framework for Financial Accounting and Reporting: Elements of Financial Statements and Their Measurement. These documents started a revolution in financial reporting that continues today.

As the director of accounting, then assistant comptroller-chief ­accountant, and finally as auditor general for General Motors Corp., I have been involved in the resistance to this revolution since it began.

Briefly, the proposed conceptual framework would shift the determination of income from the income statement and its emphasis on the matching of costs with related revenues to the determination of income by measuring the “well offness” from period to period by measuring changes on the two balance sheets on a fair value basis from the beginning and the ending of the period. The argument was made that these data are more relevant than the historic cost in use and not as subjective as the concept of identifying costs with related revenues. In addition, those in favor of the change claimed that the fair value data was more relevant than the historic cost data and thus more valuable to the possible lenders and investors, ignoring the needs of the actual managers and, in the case of private companies, the owners.

RELEVANCY REQUIRES RELIABILITY
It seems to me that the recent meltdown in the finance industry as well as the Enron experience would have made it clear that to be relevant the data must be reliable.

Enron took advantage of the mark-to-market rule to create income by just writing up such assets as Mariner Energy Inc. (see SEC Litigation Release no. 18403).

Charles R. Morris writes in his recently released book, The Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers, and the Great Credit Crash, that “Securitization fostered irresponsible lending, by seeming to relieve lenders of credit risk, and at the same time, helped propagate shaky credits throughout the global financial system.”

There is much talk of the need for “transparency,” and it now appears we have completely obscured a company’s exposure to loss! We still do not know the extent of the meltdown!

ASSIGNING BLAME
We are still trying to assign blame—Morris identifies former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s easy money policies—and certainly the regulators allowed the finance industry to get out of control. However, FASB and its fascination with “values” and mark to market must be a part of the problem.

Holman W. Jenkins Jr. began his editorial, “Mark to Meltdown,” (Wall Street Journal, p. A17, March 5, 2008) by stating, “No task is more thankless than to write about accounting for a family newspaper, yet it must be shared with the public that ‘mark to market,’ an accounting and regulatory innovation of the early 1990s, has proved another of Washington’s fabulous failures.”

Merrill Lynch reported a $15 billion loss on mortgages for 2007. Citicorp had about $12 billion in losses, and Bear Stearns failed. These huge losses came from mortgages that had been written up to some fictitious value based on credit ratings during the preceding years! In addition there is some doubt that those loss estimates might be too conservative and at some point in the future a portion of them may be reversed.

THE BASIC PURPOSE OF ACCOUNTING
Anyone who has ever run an accounting operation knows that the basic purpose of accounting is to provide reliable, transaction-based data by which one can control the assets and liabilities and measure performance of both the overall company and its individual employees.

A forecast of an income statement each month as well as an analysis of the actual results compared to the previous month’s forecast are a key factor in controlling a company’s operations. The balance sheet will often be used by the treasury department to analyze cash flows and the need for financing. I do not know of a company that compares the values of the beginning and ending balance sheets to determine the success of its operations.

How did we reach the current state of affairs where the standard setters no longer consider the stewardship needs of the manager but focus instead on the potential investor or creditor and potential values rather than transactional results?

The problem developed because of the conflict between economics, accounting and finance—and the education of accountants. All three fields are vital to running a company but each has its place. In what some of us perceive to be an exercise of hubris, FASB has attempted to serve the needs of all three fields at the expense of manager or owner needs for control and performance measurements.

HOW WE GOT HERE
The debate over the need for any standards began with the 1929 market crash and the subsequent formation of the SEC. Initially, Congress intended that the chief accountant of the SEC would establish the necessary standards. However, Carmen Blough, the first SEC chief accountant, wanted the American Institute of Accountants (a predecessor to the AICPA) to do this. In 1937 he succeeded in convincing the SEC to do just that. The AICPA did this through an ad hoc committee for 22 years but finally established a more formal committee, the Accounting Principles Board, which functioned until it was deemed inadequate and FASB was formed in 1973.

FASB’s first order of business was to establish a formal “constitution” as outlined by the report of the Trueblood Committee (Objectives of Financial Statements, AICPA, October 1973). With the influence of several academics on that committee, the thrust of the “constitution” was to move to a balance sheet view of income versus the income view which had arisen in the 1930s. Although the ultimate goal was never clarified, it was obvious to some, most notably Robert K. Mautz, who had served as a professor of accounting at the University of Illinois and partner in the accounting firm Ernst & Ernst (a predecessor to Ernst & Young) and finally a member of the Public Oversight Board and the Accounting Hall of Fame. Mautz realized then that the goal was fair value accounting and traveled the nation preaching that a revolution was being proposed. Several companies, notably General Motors and Shell Oil, led the opposition that continues to this day.

The most recent statement on the matter was FASB’s 2006 publication of a preliminary views (PV) document called Conceptual Framework for Financial Reporting: Objective of Financial Reporting and Qualitative Characteristics of Decision-Useful Financial Reporting Information. It is clear that FASB has abandoned the real daily users who apply traditional accounting to manage their businesses. The PV document refers to investors and creditors only. It mentions the need for comparability and consistency but does not attempt to explain how this would be possible under fair value accounting since each manager would be required to make his or her own value judgments, which, of course, would not be comparable to any other company’s evaluations.

The only reference to the management of a company states that “…management has the ability to obtain whatever information it needs.” That is true, but under the PV proposal management would have to maintain a third set of books to keep track of valuations. (The two traditional sets would be the operating set based on actual costs and sales, which would need to be continued to allow management or owners to judge actual performance of the company and personnel, while the other set is that used for federal income tax filings.)

Since there are about 19 million private companies that do not file with the SEC versus the 17,000 public companies that do, private companies are in a quandary. The majority of them file audited financial statements with banks and creditors based on historical costs and for the most part current GAAP. They are already running into trouble with several FASB standards that introduce fair value into GAAP. What GAAP do they use?

Judging by the crash of the financial system and the tens of billions of dollars in losses booked by investment banks this year, the answer seems clear: Return to establishing standards that are based on costs and transactions, that inhibit rather than encourage manipulation of earnings (such as mark to market, FASB Statements no. 133 and 157 to name a few), and that result in data as reliable as it can be under an accrual accounting system.

The analysts and other investors and creditors will have to do their own estimates of a company’s future success. However, the success of any company will depend on the quality of its products and services and the skill of its management, not on a guess at the “value” of its assets. Writing up assets was a bad practice in the 1920s and as bad a practice in recent years.

Eugene H. Flegm, CPA, CFE, (now retired) served for more than 30 years as an accounting executive for General Motors Corp. He is a frequent contributor to various accounting publications. His e-mail address is ehflegm@earthlink.net.
——————————————————————————–
fair value defined
Fair Value definition, relevance and measurement

What is Fair Value? Definition.

Fair Value is an accounting term, originally defined by the SEC.

Under GAAP, the fair value of an asset is the amount at which that asset could be bought or sold in a current transaction between willing parties, other than in a liquidation. On the other side of the balance sheet, the fair value of a liability is the amount at which that liability could be incurred or settled in a current transaction between willing parties, other than in a liquidation.
If available, a quoted market price in an active market is the best evidence of fair value and should be used as the basis for the measurement. If a quoted market price is not available, preparers should make an estimate of fair value using the best information available in the circumstances. In many circumstances, quoted market prices are unavailable. As a result, difficulties occur when making estimates of fair value.

Why Fair Value accounting? Relevance.

In today’s dynamic and volatile markets, whether it is to buy or sell, what people want to know is what an asset is worth today.

Accounting research supports that assertion. The FASB, after extensive discussions, has concluded that fair value is the most relevant measure for financial instruments. In its deliberations of Statement 133, the FASB revisited that issue and again renewed its commitment to eventually measuring all financial instruments at fair value.

Fair value accounting provides more transparency than historical cost based measurements. Maybe, if companies in the United States and Asia had measured all financial instruments at fair value, regulators, depositors, and investors could have achieved greater regulatory and market discipline and avoided some of the losses that investors and taxpayers have had to pay during previous downturns in the economy.
——————————————————————————

Tagged , | Leave a comment

Microsoft Stock Buyback – What Does It Mean?

A WSJ article notes that Microsoft is planning to buyback $40 billion dollars worth of its stock. Why do companies do that? The basics:

  • Once reacquired, the stock becomes treasury stock unless retired by the company, which was not noted in this case.
  • Buybacks typically occur over a period of time — 5 years in this case — and are intended to be interpreted as companies believing that their stock price is under-valued. However, as John Waggoner of USA Today has noted, a better indicator of whether a stock is under-valued is to notice if company directors are also purchasing the stock.
  • For example purposes – although buybacks don’t occur at once – let’s assume they do in the case of Microsoft. The market capitalization of $230 million would be unchanged, but the outstanding shares would decrease by about 17% – from approximately 9.1 to 7.5 million shares outstanding. The theory is that the remaining outstanding shares would be worth more.
  • Buybacks benefit option holders by reducing the required dividend payments, which option holders do not participate in.
  • Stock buybacks can represent a more tax efficient method to benefit shareholders since the increased value of the stock is not taxable [until sold], as opposed to a dividend, which is taxable.

With the help of The Motley Fool, we’ll walk through an example:

Let’s look at the math via a simplified example. Imagine that Scruffy’s Chicken Shack (Ticker: BUKBUK) has 100 shares outstanding, and you own five of them, or 5% of the company. (This is really simplified. Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK), for example, recently had more than 60 million shares outstanding; 100 shares is approximately one 600,000th of the company.)

If Scruffy’s bought back 10 shares, 90 would remain. Assuming you still held your five shares, they would now represent 5.6% of the company. Your ownership stake has gone up, and each share is tied to a bigger piece of the company.

Think of the firm’s earnings per share (EPS), for example. If its net income for the year was $600, pre-buyback the EPS would be $6. After the buyback, the net income would be divided by 90 shares, yielding an EPS of $6.67.

Buybacks thus increase the earning power of your investment by increasing the amount of the company each share represents.

All articles referenced are copied in full at end of post.
—————————————————————————–

Will Stock Buybacks Make You Rich?

http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2008/04/17/will-stock-buybacks-make-you-rich.aspx

Selena Maranjian
April 17, 2008

Stock buybacks have a great reputation for being a powerful way for shareholders to build wealth, and they’ve been especially popular lately.

According to a December 2007 Standard & Poor‘s report, stock buybacks have become one of the largest expenditures that S&P 500 companies make. In the past three years, companies have bought back around $1.32 trillion in shares, beating out capital expenditures ($1.28 trillion), regular dividends ($600 billion), and research and development ($375 billion). In the third quarter of 2007, buyback levels had increased 57% year over year.

So what exactly is a share buyback? Well, when a company makes a hefty profit, it can spend that money on growing the business, paying down its debt, rewarding employees, or rewarding shareholders through a dividend payment. It can also buy some of its existing shares on the open market and then essentially retire them: the share buyback.

The good side
Why are buybacks good for investors? Let’s look at the math via a simplified example.

Imagine that Scruffy’s Chicken Shack (Ticker: BUKBUK) has 100 shares outstanding, and you own five of them, or 5% of the company. (This is really simplified. Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK), for example, recently had more than 60 million shares outstanding; 100 shares is approximately one 600,000th of the company.)

If Scruffy’s bought back 10 shares, 90 would remain. Assuming you still held your five shares, they would now represent 5.6% of the company. Your ownership stake has gone up, and each share is tied to a bigger piece of the company.

Think of the firm’s earnings per share (EPS), for example. If its net income for the year was $600, pre-buyback the EPS would be $6. After the buyback, the net income would be divided by 90 shares, yielding an EPS of $6.67.

Buybacks thus increase the earning power of your investment by increasing the amount of the company each share represents.

Over the past few years, plenty of well-known blue chips have executed sizable stock buybacks.

Stock Buybacks from 2004 Q4 to 2007 Q3
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) $21.7 billion
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) $76.2 billion
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) $57.4 billion
Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) $21.5 billion
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) $29.4 billion
Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO) $26.2 billion

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

But wait!
Although stock buybacks seems like an unqualified benefit, there’s the potential for downside. If the shares are bought back when they’re trading at inflated prices, then the company isn’t doing its shareholders any favors. In fact, it’s destroying value.

Sometimes buybacks are executed simply because it will look good, conveying management’s confidence in the company, when there are actually better uses of the funds.

But more importantly, the conventional wisdom about the worth of share buybacks may not hold water. A recent S&P study noted that many believe that stock prices rise from buybacks, that more buybacks have a bigger impact than fewer buybacks, and that buybacks reduce total shares outstanding. Yet S&P’s Equity Research Services actually looked at the data from the beginning of 2006 to the middle of 2007 and concluded that none of those three points was supported by the actual figures. Yikes!

What to do
Since buybacks may not be so effective, what should you do? Well, investigate how promising one is before getting excited about it. And also…

Consider dividends instead! As my colleague James Early has pointed out in his article “Make Millions with 7 Stocks,” the vast majority of gains from stocks over the past 130 years have come from reinvested dividends. Furthermore, high-yielding dividend-paying stocks often have higher earnings growth than their lower-income counterparts.

Why do dividends seem like a more reliable path to wealth than buybacks? Well, remember that buybacks are executed by managements that are often trying to look good to the public. Dividends reflect more of a long-term commitment. No company wants to ever lower or eliminate its dividend, so it isn’t likely to overpay them. Companies know that raising dividends regularly is attractive to investors, so they try to do that, too.

For help finding significant dividend payers, I invite you to check out our Motley Fool Income Investor newsletter, which recommends two compelling investments each month. Last time I checked, its recommendations were beating the market with average returns of 21%, vs. 14%, and there were more than 20 recommendations with dividend yields topping 6%. A free trial will give you access to all past issues and all recommendations — it’s worth a look.

Learn more in these articles:

—————————————————————————–
WSJ 9/22/08
Microsoft Boosts Stock Buybacks
By KERRY E. GRACE

Microsoft Corp.’s board authorized the repurchase of $40 billion in stock and an 18% dividend increase as personal-computer giant Hewlett-Packard Co. announced another $8 billion buyback.

The moves by the two technology titans, coupled with Microsoft’s plans to tap the debt market for the first time — show that they aren’t concerned about the turmoil roiling the financial markets.

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer has continued investing in online services despite the failed Yahoo bid, but the stock buyback signals the software maker isn’t planning any big acquisitions.

Microsoft’s latest buyback effort also signals no big acquisition plans on the horizon — such as its effort earlier this year to acquire Yahoo Inc. — and comes after Microsoft said in 2004 that it would repurchase up to $30 billion in stock over the next four years. That plan ultimately grew to $40 billion and has been completed.

The next $40 billion is set to be purchased over the next five years. Microsoft’s market capitalization is about $230 billion.

The company noted Monday that in the past five years, it has returned about $115 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. That is solace to longtime shareholders who own a stock that has traded below $30 for essentially all of the past 6 1/2 years.

Microsoft’s board also approved taking out up to $6 billion in debt and the establishment of a $2 billion commercial paper program. Microsoft will use the proceeds from any debt financing for general purposes, including the stock buybacks. The company has no debt.

Also Monday, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s bestowed Microsoft with AAA, their highest rating. It’s S&P’s first new AAA rating in a decade and Moody’s first since 2002. Microsoft is one of only six nonfinancial companies to receive an AAA rating from the firms.

S&P said Microsoft’s size, scope and low risk contributed to its rating, adding that the AAA category would likely continue to get smaller as part of the “expected ongoing trend toward reduced credit quality.”

Meanwhile, H-P’s $8 billion buyback plan is intended to manage dilution created by shares under employee stock plans. The amount is in addition to the nearly $3 billion that can be repurchased under the $8 billion stock-repurchase program approved in November. The company’s market value is just short of $120 billion.

Write to Kerry E. Grace at kerry.grace@dowjones.com
————————————————————————–

Posted in Business & Economics | Tagged , | Leave a comment

September 13, 1961– Personal Freedom Day

Click on image to enlarge

Thank you USA

Gracias Ela y Adolfo

Below, a camera captures my first glimpse of
Ronald Wilson Reagan

Posted in Random Observations | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Palin survival odds increasing – Rod Serling

OK, I know Rod Serling’s been dead since 1975, but the whole Palin thing has been so strange, he seems best qualified [although his Foreign policy credentials were notoriously weak] to comment on it.

I keep expecting a very negative development re Palin to arise, given all the attention. The Presidential election may ride on it. By now, I can pretty much determine what’s a puff piece [key word – impressive] or a hatchet job [key word – troubling] by just glancing at the article.

The headline in the USA Today article alone, is worth its weight in gold for McCain – see an excerpt below, the entire article is at end of post:

Palin ‘governed from the center,’ went after big oil

… But in her 21 months as governor, Palin has taken few steps to advance culturally conservative causes. Instead, after she knocked off an incumbent amid an influence-peddling scandal linked to the oil industry, Palin pursued a populist agenda that toughened ethics rules and raised taxes on oil and gas companies.

And she did so while relying on Democratic votes in the Legislature.

“She has governed from the center,” says Rebecca Braun, author of Alaska Budget Report, a non-partisan political newsletter. “She has in some small ways supported her religious views — for example, proposing money to continue the office of faith-based and community initiatives — but she has actually been conspicuously absent on social issues. She came in with a big oil and gas agenda, which really required Democratic allies to get through.”

Combined with the ABC interview, this could be the turning point for her. The consensus could emerge that while she is obviously inexperienced in foreign affairs, she is smart enough and tough enough to get to where she should be knowledge-wise.

This is the flip side of the attempt to ruin her credibility, if she surives, she does so as a heroine. By the time the VP debate with Biden rolls around, it may not matter. We are witnessing someone making their ‘bones’ in the public square. I can’t believe this is happening.

This reminds me of a piece of advice Tim Russert gave to an intern [relax, not a Clinton anecdote]:

I’d first met Russert that June, while interning for PBS’s “Charlie Rose” in New York. My important duties that day were to get Russert coffee and walk him out of the Bloomberg building after the taping. I told him I’d love to work on “Meet the Press.”

“You’re being too nice,” he said at the time, laughing. “Guys like you should want to host the show.” More seriously, he added, “Look, you just have to get out there and do it.” Russert took in the swarm of people on Lexington Avenue and asked “Where are you from, son?”

“Bucks County, Pennsylvania,” I said. Russert gestured to the people rushing by. “All of these folks,” he said, “don’t let them intimidate you. When I first started working for Pat Moynihan, I thought all of these Ivy League guys were ahead of me, that I could never catch up. Then Senator Moynihan took me aside one day, when I told him I didn’t think I had it in me to compete in the big leagues, and he said, Tim, what they know, you can learn. What you know, they’ll never understand.

That’s why I think people like her. They assume that she can acquire policy skills, but her life choices are not something the political left will ever understand and therefore cannot compete with. That and the whole Baberham Lincoln thing.

————————————————————————–

Palin ‘governed from the center,’ went after big oil

By Ken Dilanian, USA TODAY

ANCHORAGE — Weeks after taking office as Alaska’s governor in December 2006, Sarah Palin vetoed a bill that sought to ban benefits for the same-sex partners of state workers. It was unconstitutional, she said.

This year, she rebuffed religious conservatives who wanted her to add two abortion restriction measures to a special legislative session on oil and gas policy, even though she supported the bills. Former aide Larry Persily said she didn’t want to risk offending Democrats, whose votes she needed on energy legislation.

Since Republican presidential candidate John McCain picked Palin as his running mate, much attention has been focused on her deeply conservative social views — including her opposition to abortion even in cases of rape and incest and her attendance at a church that promotes the “transformation” of homosexuals through prayer.

But in her 21 months as governor, Palin has taken few steps to advance culturally conservative causes. Instead, after she knocked off an incumbent amid an influence-peddling scandal linked to the oil industry, Palin pursued a populist agenda that toughened ethics rules and raised taxes on oil and gas companies.

And she did so while relying on Democratic votes in the Legislature.

“She has governed from the center,” says Rebecca Braun, author of Alaska Budget Report, a non-partisan political newsletter. “She has in some small ways supported her religious views — for example, proposing money to continue the office of faith-based and community initiatives — but she has actually been conspicuously absent on social issues. She came in with a big oil and gas agenda, which really required Democratic allies to get through.”

John Bitney, who was Palin’s issues adviser during the 2006 campaign and later worked as her legislative liaison before she fired him, says, “She’s a very devout Christian. That’s a part of her core. But we never put those issues forward in the campaign. She takes the positions she takes because that’s who she is, but when she came into office, that wasn’t her agenda.”

A focus on energy

Palin’s agenda has been dominated by an energy policy that, in part, bears more resemblance to the one put forward by Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama and other Democrats than the one backed by McCain and the GOP.

Obama supports a so-called windfall tax on oil profits; McCain opposes it. McCain also opposed repealing billions of dollars in oil tax breaks as a way of paying for renewable energy subsidies.

“If that plan sounds familiar, it’s because that was President Carter’s big idea, too,” McCain said of Obama’s windfall tax proposal in June in San Antonio.

Six months earlier in Alaska, Palin had signed a bill that increased state taxes on oil profits. The measure imposed a graduated scale, so the state’s share would go up even more when oil prices rise.

Palin dubbed her plan “Alaska’s Clear and Equitable Share.” Oil company profits are taxed at a 25% base rate, up from the previous 22.5%. The tax rate rises 0.2% for each dollar the price of oil exceeds $52 per barrel.

The state’s coffers are brimming, and Palin and the Legislature this month are sending $1,200 checks to every Alaskan, on top of $2,069 each will receive as part of the annual slice of state oil and gas revenue. Palin also suspended the state’s gasoline tax for a year. Oil and gas royalties make up 85% of state revenue in Alaska, which has no income or sales tax.

Oil executives said the law amounted to a $6 billion tax increase this year and criticized it on the same grounds that McCain and Republicans have opposed efforts by congressional Democrats to repeal federal tax breaks for oil producers. They said it would cost jobs and reduce investment in exploration.

“The tax increase that Gov. Palin has signed into law reduces the attractiveness of future oil developments in Alaska,” Kimberly Brasington, a spokeswoman for ExxonMobil, said after the bill passed in December. “We are re-evaluating investment plans.”

Tim Bradner, an energy industry specialist for the Alaska Economic Report, says two oil projects worth about $1 billion have been canceled because they became uneconomical under the Palin tax increase.

It was a remarkable development in a state where the oil industry has long wielded outsized influence in politics.

‘Surprising turn of events’

Palin got tough with major oil producers in other ways, too. She moved to revoke ExxonMobil’s license to develop oil and natural gas at Point Thomson on the North Slope, arguing the company had sat for too long on the site without developing the reserves. ExxonMobil says it will begin drilling this winter, but the state says the plans are inadequate.

In August, Palin signed a bill to give a half-billion-dollar state subsidy to a Canadian company to build a $30 billion natural gas pipeline after major oil producers boycotted the bidding.

“Here you are in Alaska, a state that grew rich on oil and gas, in a state where Republicans generally protected the industry,” says Persily, who worked for Palin in Washington. “Now you have Palin who comes in, says, ‘Tax ’em,’ and the Legislature says, ‘We’ll see your tax, and we’ll double it,’ and everyone went home happy other than the oil industry. It’s a very surprising turn of events.”

Eric Croft, a former Democratic state representative from Anchorage, says, “On oil and gas, her positions are much closer to that of the national Democratic Party than of the national Republican Party.”

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, McCain’s policy director, sees a distinction.

“The key difference between what the governor did and what Sen. Obama is proposing is, the governor did not impose a windfall profits tax,” Holtz-Eakin said during a lunch with reporters last week. “It’s a permanent change. It’s not an opportunistic grab for ‘windfall profits,’ and I think that’s a fundamental difference in the approach. She was trying to set the state up for both good and bad times in the oil industry, and that’s very sensible.”

Palin has been unavailable to the news media for interviews other than ABC News. Her spokeswoman, Maria Comella, said in an e-mail: “Just like John McCain, Gov. Palin understood the need to eliminate corruption, raise ethical standards, and serve the people with a comprehensive approach to fixing the tax code and supporting an appropriate royalties system.”

In August, before she was McCain’s running mate, Palin issued a statement praising parts of Obama’s energy plan, especially his proposal “to offer $1,000 rebates to those struggling with the high cost of energy.” She questioned Obama’s proposed windfall profits tax without explaining how it would differ from her new tax.

Even so, she differs sharply from Obama and McCain on the politically sensitive issue of opening areas of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to oil drilling. She supports it; the presidential candidates do not.

In an interview with CNBC’s Larry Kudlow this summer, Palin said McCain is “wrong on ANWR, but we’re still working on that.”

‘Who are these people?’

Palin’s oil populism isn’t just one aspect of her record: It’s central to her identity as a politician. And it was instrumental in her rise to power.

After serving as mayor of small town Wasilla from 1996 to 2002, she ran for lieutenant governor that fall. She came in second, but her out-of-nowhere performance made an impression across Alaska, says Republican state Sen. Lyda Green.

Gov. Frank Murkowski, a Republican, appointed her to a $118,000-a-year job on an important oil and gas commission. Several months later, she filed an ethics complaint against a fellow commissioner — the state chairman of the Republican Party — alleging he was doing political business on state time. He resigned and later paid a $12,000 fine.

Palin complained that Murkowski hadn’t taken the complaint seriously. She quit and began planning to challenge him in the 2006 primary. Among Palin’s lines of attacks: He was too close to the oil industry.

The unpopular Murkowski also was being challenged in the GOP primary by state Sen. John Binkley of Fairbanks. Because few initially thought Palin had a chance, Alaska lobbyist Ashley Reed recalls, party activists asked Reed to approach her to see whether she would step aside and run as Binkley’s lieutenant governor.

Palin refused. She handily beat Murkowski and Binkley with 51% of the vote; Murkowski finished third with 19%.

That evening, at the traditional election night gathering place in downtown Anchorage where candidates go to do television interviews, Reed recalls marveling at the crowd of enthusiastic supporters who surrounded Palin. In a small state where most politicos know one another, he says, “I watched in amazement, because what I saw was people I never saw before. I just stood there and was like, ‘Who are these people?’ ”

Running against big oil

Nine days after the primary, the FBI raided the offices of six Alaska legislators, and documents made clear the investigation was oil-related.

The burgeoning scandal, which included revelations of favors done for politicians by oil services company VECO, set the stage for Palin’s general election campaign. She promised to overhaul ethics laws and re-examine the state’s relationships with the oil industry.

It wasn’t just the VECO scandal: Alaskans were fed up with high gas prices and with Exxon’s court fight to avoid paying punitive damages in connection with the Exxon Valdez oil tanker spill, Green says.

“It became kind of the thing to do to, quote, hate the industry,” she says. “That became part of her campaign: We’re not gonna let these people tell us what to do anymore. The raids really emboldened her to run against the party, run against the industry.”

Palin told the Associated Press in October 2006, “I’ve been blessed with the right timing.”

It was a three-way race against a seasoned former governor, Democrat Tony Knowles, and a former legislator, Andrew Halcro. There were 23 debates, says Bitney, who helped Palin prepare. She wasn’t particularly conversant with public policy, he recalls, but she “learned enough about issues to know where not to go.”

She didn’t shy away from her conservative stands on social issues. But at one debate, she said she favored teaching students about contraception, including condoms.

Palin won with 48% of the vote. In her State of the State address in January, she promised to shelve the pipeline deal her predecessor had cut behind closed doors and reopen the bidding. In July, as the scandal mushroomed, she signed a bill requiring disclosure of lobbyist gifts to legislators.

On Dec. 19, she signed the oil tax increase. Six days before, in the U.S. Senate, an energy bill that would have repealed billions in tax breaks for oil companies failed by one vote. Obama voted yea; McCain skipped the vote.

Financial news service Bloomberg opined that when it comes to extracting more revenue from oil companies, Palin, “is succeeding where Venezuela President Hugo Chávez, a former paratrooper and military coup leader, so far has failed.”

Anchorage lawyer Allison Mendel, who sued the state on behalf of partners seeking same-sex health benefits, says she doesn’t think Palin’s restraint on social issues in Alaska would necessarily translate in Washington.

Mendel says Palin hasn’t pushed cultural conservatism because it wasn’t politically expedient, not because she didn’t want to. “Almost all the time she has been governor has been totally taken up with ethics and oil,” Mendel says.

Indeed, there once was a governor from a conservative state who was known for his ability to work with Democrats. His campaign theme was “compassionate conservatism,” and his name was George W. Bush.

Many observers, including both candidates running for president this year, say Washington is more divided and rancorous than ever.

Posted in Current Affairs & History | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Old Policy Disputes Disguised as Compassion

If our Cuban-American community is to show maturity on the issue of how to respond to the train-wreck of a government and coming changes in Cuba, I would think less, not more, emotion would be a goal. Yet, in response to the damage inflicted by Hurricane Ike, the pages of the Miami Herald — local columnist Myriam Marquez and local business leader, Carlos Saldriagas, have made what I consider to be emotional appeals regarding their support of temporarily [90 days] lifting the direct remittance bans, proposed by the Democrat challenger to the US House of Representatives, Raul Martinez.

Their appeals are aimed not at the logic and expected implications of abandoning the current policy, but straight at the heartstrings – evoking the imagery of hurricane damage and the need for doing the ‘right thing’ [the ‘wrong thing’ coalition apparently having failed to get their letter published]. Who believes that at the end of the 90 days, the same people requesting the change now would be satisfied and support the policy reverting to it’s current position. I can give you their speeches now; ‘we had hoped that the 3 month period would have been enough, but the enormity of the task is only now becoming evident to us. Think of ourselves in Miami and how long it took us to recover from Andrew. So let us now pledge, during this Christmas season….’

Now if the people requesting the policy change would state that they would unequivocally support the policy reverting to its current status, that would be different and something to consider. But not just an election season promise, which we know can change with ease. But rather a believable case on why 90 days would be enough, when we know going into this that 90 days will not even come close to addressing years of mismanagement and corruption, let alone hurricane damage.

But that’s the point. Just as those of us who support trade and remittance restrictions are routinely accused of supporting failed policies, those advocating this change need to address in unemotional terms; why the bread and circus of a 90 day window, for people trapped by a hospice-like government which is immune to suffering? Differentiate why monies sent directly to Cuba differ from those which were well intentioned aid yesterday, but today line the pockets and extend the regime-life of a Mugabe in Zimbabwe. If it’s because of our heritage as opposed to our faith, then say so clearly. Because as a Christian, when I look at Caribbean countries who have suffered greatly recently, who truly have no other options and for whom I sincerely believe a concentrated period of assistance from compassionate Miamians would do real good, that country is Haiti.

Given all that, my prayers, energies and dollars will go to Catholic Relief Charities for both Haiti and Cuba, not old policy disputes, disguised as compassion.

[Post-post Sept 16]: From a Miami Herald article which explores why Cuba rejected a $5 million offer of US aid:

”The Cuban Interests Section in Washington wishes to communicate to the government of the United States that our country cannot accept a donation from the country that blockades us, although it is willing to purchase the indispensable materials that the North American companies export to the markets, and requests authorization for the provision of same, as well as the credits that are normal in all commercial operations,” the statement said.

“If the government of the United States does not wish to do so permanently, the government of Cuba requests that at least it do so during the next six months.”

Last week, U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutiérrez said the Cuban government is behind on payments to most of its creditors, and suggested that the request was a pretext.

”Do they really want us to extend their credits?” he said.

Pro-embargo lobbyist Mauricio Claver-Carone said the Cuban government historically uses natural disasters to poke holes in the trade embargo. Hurricane Michelle in 2001 legalized cash agricultural sales, and now American farmers are among the top providers of food to Cuba.

”This isn’t the first time they do this,” Claver-Carone said. “In 2001, it opened a Pandora’s box.”

Note: Since Herald web links expire – their complete column & letter are provided at end of this post.

————————————————————————————-
Posted on Wed, Sep. 10, 2008
Ike a chance to show our compassion
BY MYRIAM MARQUEZ
The heavenly signs pierce the soul, harsh and devastating.

You can see them in the eyes of a wounded Haitian child caked in mud, gasping for life after Ike, the Category 3 hurricane that killed more than 300 and left a million homeless. Feel them in the tremble of a sobbing father holding his dead little girl. Hear them in prayers of Miami’s Little Haiti community to Notre Dame du Perpétuel Secours, our Lady of Perpetual Help.

You can track the signs, too, in Hurricane Ike’s path through Cuba. It roared through Nipe Bay near Santiago, where almost 400 years ago on that very day two young Indian brothers and a slave boy survived a storm and found a floating wood statue, bone dry, proclaiming “I am the Virgin of Charity.”

LOST OPPORTUNITIES

As a multitude of Cuban exiles solemnly prayed the rosary Monday on the anniversary of the virgin’s apparition, Ike’s trajectory became a replay of historical misses and lost opportunities.

Ike kept pushing, challenging, reminding us of old battles as it ripped through central Cuba and swirled just a few miles from Playa Girón where young exiles fought in the failed Bay of Pigs invasion.

By Tuesday, Havana’s old buildings were crumbling from Ike. The storm was blamed for the death of at least four Cubans in other towns and was expected to do more damage to an already devastated Pinar del Río province, where Gustav 10 days earlier destroyed crops and 100,000 homes.

How many more signs before we walk the compassionate conservative talk?

Haitians without U.S. immigration papers deserve temporary protected status. If not now, when? That immigration category is used during times of natural disasters and wars, giving undocumented immigrants the opportunity to remain in the United States and work, just as Salvadorans and Nicaraguans have been allowed to do.

You can’t send help to your loved ones if you’re in an immigration cell, unable to work for no other crime than your status as persona non grata.

South Florida’s congressional delegation has consistently called for TPS for Haitians. Republicans and Democrats, alike, see the moral imperative. Republican U.S. Reps. Lincoln Diaz Balart, Mario Diaz Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen quickly called on President Bush to do right by Haiti on TPS, as have Rep. Kendrick Meek and other Democrats.

A KEY MOMENT

Students of history know there are pivotal moments that offer remarkable transformations. The collapse of the Berlin Wall that led to the end of the Soviet empire caught the West by surprise. Ike may be our test.

For Bush has the opportunity to rise above the expected political drill of nothing for Cuba until the Castro brothers leave. It’s good to see the Treasury Department is poised to approve new licenses for nongovernmental groups to offer hurricane relief to the Cuban people, but we can do more.

No one with any sense is saying dump the Cuba embargo and kiss up to the Castros. But what’s so wrong with a 90-day window for Cuban exiles to rush to their families left behind and offer help, as Democratic congressional candidate Raúl Martinez has suggested?

I suspect Fidel and Raúl won’t allow it. They only care about free credit so their already debt-driven government can get U.S. goods for nothing. Let them play politics with Cubans’ suffering.

We are better than that.

Even for 90 days, only for 90 days, let’s get rid of the political babble, the white noise and seize the challenge of our better angels.
————————————————————————————-
Miami Herald – Posted on Wed, Sep. 10, 2008
We are hurting Cubans, not the regime
Given the current debate over how the United States should react to the devastation left by Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in Cuba, it is important to put things in perspective. Hundreds of thousands of people have been seriously affected by the storms, and there will be a profound impact on a nation already on the verge of a food and housing crisis.

Ramon Saul Sanchez’s Democracy Movement has asked the federal government to temporarily lift restrictions on remittances to allow Cuban Americans to send monetary and physical assistance to family on the island. Several exile organizations, including those that form part of Consenso Cubano, expressed their support for such a move. Almost all the leading Cuban dissidents have, also. To most observers, this is a perfectly logical, ethical, humanitarian and effective thing to do — but not in the irrational and absurd context of U.S.-Cuba policy.

Disappointingly, but swiftly, the administration, in collaboration with Cuban-American legislators from both parties, chose to play politics, issuing a statement challenging the Cuban regime to, among other things, allow the U.S. Interests Section in Havana to directly distribute aid, offering a paltry and offensive $100,000. In a continuing political chess game where the suffering Cuban people are pawns, the United States challenges the regime in ways reminiscent of Fidel Castro’s offer to send doctors to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

I wish that our presidential candidates had refrained from intervening on this issue. When candidates take positions, issues become politicized. However, Barack Obama’s comments were positive and constructive. While I have not heard John McCain’s position on this issue, I cannot believe that he would agree with the administration’s position, given his wife’s recent trip to Vietnam and her laudable work there helping children with cleft palates. Vietnam holds more political prisoners and has more human-rights violations than Cuba. But the McCains have demonstrated that humanitarian efforts should transcend politics.

To propose, as the only option, something that the administration knows the Cuban regime is going to reject is playing politics with Cubans’ suffering. If U.S. officials are sincere about helping them, they should act to unilaterally lift, temporarily, all restrictions on remittances and allow U.S. NGOs to send aid to Cuba. Our government cannot control how the Cuban government will react. But its leaders will be held accountable by Cubans and history’s harsh judgment. What the Cuban government does, or fails to do, should not dictate our actions.

Instead of rushing to help our brethren, some in the Cuban-American community have engaged in the old, tired and increasingly sterile political debate.

Can we for once put the Cuban people first? This is the perfect opportunity to inject ethical considerations into a debate from which they have been absent for a long time. Can we continue to allow the end to justify cruel means? Can we expect to justify one wrong because the Cuban government commits another? Where are the voices of religious leaders? It is precisely on issues like these that they need to be heard, clearly and unequivocally.

The majority of the Cuban-American community is increasingly fed up with the continuing ineffective and worn out diatribe.

We ought to be freed to help our brethren in any way we can, directly and indirectly. In the end, it will be more politically effective to prioritize helping the Cuban people over hurting the regime. It is the only right thing to do.

CARLOS SALADRIGAS, Miami
————————————————————————————–
Miami Herald
Posted on Tue, Sep. 16, 2008
Cuba rejects U.S. supplies, asks for suspension of trade embargo
BY FRANCES ROBLES

A civilian aircraft was ready to be loaded with supplies to help residents of this hard-hit province and fly out of Miami Tuesday, but Havana rejected the U.S. humanitarian assistance offer — repeating that what it really needs is a temporary suspension of the trade embargo.

Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Shannon called the offer made to Cuban diplomats ”unique and unprecedented,” because in the interest of speeding up delivery, the U.S. government was prepared to turn over up to $2 million in plastic sheeting, hygiene kits, blankets and other items directly to the Castro government — an exception Washington was willing to make because of the extreme humanitarian need.

The initial flight loaded with $348,000 in goods was part of a $5 million aid package the Cuban government shunned, saying in a statement Monday that it cannot accept help from “government that blockades them.”

Henrietta Fore, director of the U.S. Agency for International Development, told reporters that about $3 million in cash will make its way to the storm-wracked island anyway through various nongovernmental organizations, earmarked for some 35,000 hurricane victims.

”This was a genuine offer,” Fore said in a conference call with reporters Monday afternoon. “We knew of the dire need. This was an important, serious offer of humanitarian assistance. We are hoping the Cuban government will reconsider.”

Washington came under fire last week because its first two offers to help Cuba in the wake of devastating back-to-back hurricanes were for just $100,000 — if the Cubans allowed a disaster assessment team to survey storm damage. Critics argued that Washington was playing politics during a disaster and failed to step up at a critical time for the Cuban people.

Cuba rejected the two proposals, saying no assesment team was necessary. Fore stressed that its latest, more generous offer, made verbally to Cuban diplomats in Washington, had no conditions attached.

”People in need in time of a natural disaster like this are simply people in need,” Fore said.

In its statement made public Monday, the Cuban government asked Washington for a six-month reprieve on embargo rules that prohibit the communist country from making purchases from American companies.

U.S. law allows Cuba to make cash agricultural purchases but prohibits it from buying on credit. Cuba’s request for a six-month embargo suspension would require an act of Congress, experts said.

After two sharply worded statements — including one that called Washington officials cynical liars — Monday’s note from the Cuban foreign ministry took a softer tone.

”The Cuban Interests Section in Washington wishes to communicate to the government of the United States that our country cannot accept a donation from the country that blockades us, although it is willing to purchase the indispensable materials that the North American companies export to the markets, and requests authorization for the provision of same, as well as the credits that are normal in all commercial operations,” the statement said.

“If the government of the United States does not wish to do so permanently, the government of Cuba requests that at least it do so during the next six months.”

Last week, U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutiérrez said the Cuban government is behind on payments to most of its creditors, and suggested that the request was a pretext.

”Do they really want us to extend their credits?” he said.

Pro-embargo lobbyist Mauricio Claver-Carone said the Cuban government historically uses natural disasters to poke holes in the trade embargo. Hurricane Michelle in 2001 legalized cash agricultural sales, and now American farmers are among the top providers of food to Cuba.

”This isn’t the first time they do this,” Claver-Carone said. “In 2001, it opened a Pandora’s box.”

In Cuba, storm victims aren’t waiting around for help from Washington — or Havana.

From coast to coast, Cubans are picking up debris, hacking away at felled trees and hammering nails. Convoys of trucks barrel down the highways with the first of much-needed supplies. Eighteen-wheelers are loaded with debris, wood, concrete shingles — and people.

People are working alone or together doing everything from fixing their homes to fixing roads and utility poles.

Yosmany González, who lives in Holguín province in eastern Cuba, said most Cubans were gathering up materials themselves. Off the floor.

He spent the weekend gathering wooden sticks that were left of his home to begin laying the foundation for the rebuilding of his house.

”The people from the Committee in Defense of the Revolution said the materials would be coming from Venezuela in a few months,” his wife Yanexy said.

On the outskirts of Sancti Spíritus, Miguel Portal and his buddy Leonardo fixed Portal’s ceramic roof, piecing together remaining chunks like a jigsaw puzzle. Leonardo — known as ”Chi Chi” — painstakingly examined each piece to see which were good enough to use and where to place them.

”I don’t have much hope that the government will help me out,” Portal said. “I have been waiting four years for the materials to make my house sturdier. They said they would provide the materials to make it look better, because it was close to the main road and they want it to look better when tourists drive by.”

The dairy farmer said materials are generally provided by community leaders.

”Lots of times they send you on a wild goose chase,” he said. “They say, `Well, we don’t have anything here, so go to this city or this place and talk to this person, and when you get there, you have to go on another wild goose chase.’

”I’m done chasing geese,” he said. “I have to figure things out for myself.”

And in Pinar del Río in western Cuba, a message for President Bush hung from a window shop: “Mr. Bush, this town can’t be fooled, and we can’t be bought.”

Miami Herald correspondents spread across Cuba contributed to this report. Their names are not being published because they lack the visas required by the Cuban government to report from the island. Robles reported from Miami.
—————————————————-

Posted in Cuba | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Judge Cohen Punts Even When She Rules

I am glad that the stadium plan cleared this hurdle, but …

I had an earlier post which speculated on whether a judge could recuse themselves due to an election. But now, safely reelected, you would think that Judge Cohen would be free to provide a clear perspective on the case brought by Norman Braman against the Marlins and local governments. However, by ruling in the Marlins favor that a new stadium could serve the public good, but then noting — see Sarah Talalay’s blog — that the Marlins got a ‘sweet deal,’ she still seems more concerned about not appearing to endorse the stadium plan, even if the law did not allow her to rule against it.

I noted the following items in Judge Cohen’s ruling:

  • The financial condition of the Marlins is unknown to anyone except the Marlins and MLB [that sentence is a source of great sadness to this blogger].
  • Marlins consistently have among the lowest attendance figures in MLB.
  • Marlins are the seventh most watched MLB team on television.
  • The County will loan the Marlins $35 million for the construction of the stadium. The Marlins will repay that loan at $2.3 million per year for 30 years – that amount has incorrectly been referred to as rent.
  • Marlins will pay the City of Miami approx $4.6 million per year for parking spaces.
  • Braman claimed that several years ago Marlins were $60 million in debt.
  • 18 new stadiums since 1992 were constructed, are under construction, or are in pre-construction stage in cities throughout the nation … most with large contributions of public funds and significant revenue streams to the sports franchise.
  • Only two courts in the country have held that the building of sports facilities do not satisfy a paramount public purpose.
  • Judge agrees with Braman that the Marlins got a sweet deal and that they may not be able to honor their financial obligations.

Things I would have liked to see addressed in her ruling:

  • Why is it a sweet deal? In comparison to which of the other recent stadium financing agreement(s)?
  • Beyond the Braman testimony regarding possible Marlins debt years ago, what other facts contribute to her perception that the Marlins may not be able to meet their obligations?
  • What would account for government officials entering into a stadium agreement with the Marlins without having informed themselves as to their finances?
  • If the Marlins are deep in debt, is the sweet deal a necessary component to having a viable MLB franchise in Miami?
  • How much sweeter would the deal have to be in order for her not be concerned about the Marlins meeting their obligations to the county?

I would have expected a judicial ruling to either address the questions I list or avoid topics which are ‘not the business of the Court.’ So Judge Cohen, next time, please put up [quantify] or … edit more aggressively.

See a link to a PDF of her decision. See various complete Sun-Sentinel and Miami Herald articles below.
———————————————————————–
South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com
Marlins win major battle in lawsuit over stadium

By Sarah Talalay

SunSentinel.com

7:57 PM EDT, September 9, 2008

MIAMI

The Florida Marlins say they will proceed with plans for a $515 million ballpark at the site of the former Orange Bowl after a Miami judge ruled Tuesday that the project serves a “paramount public purpose” – meaning public dollars can be used to build it.

Miami-Dade Circuit Court Judge Jeri Beth Cohen called the ballpark issue “contentious and emotional,” but said the law is clear in the case filed by auto dealer Norman Braman targeting the financing of $3 billion in Miami projects, including the ballpark.

“The job of this Court is to examine the facts and apply those facts to the law,” Cohen wrote.

The Marlins, Miami-Dade County and city of Miami will continue negotiating final construction and financing agreements and hope to present them to city and county commissioners in the coming weeks. The team plans to unveil renderings of the 37,000-seat ballpark shortly.

“This is a critical step in securing the long-term future of Major League Baseball in Miami,” Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria said in a statement. “We will proceed immediately to finalize discussions with the County and the City to put in place all the long-awaited final agreements.”

Braman, however, vowed to fight on.

“We’re optimistic we’re going to prevail on appeal,” Braman said. “We’re going to take it to the district court and if necessary to the Supreme Court of the State of Florida.”

Cohen plans to rule on the case’s remaining count – whether a public vote is needed on a portion of the funding of the $3 billion in projects – after Sept. 15, as she is waiting for the state Supreme Court to rule in similar cases.

Regardless, the team, city and county believe they can move forward because the ballpark’s financing does not rely on property tax dollars. Braman, however, disagrees and says the funding for all the projects, including the stadium, must be subject to a public vote.
—————————————————————————————-
South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com
Marlins Stadium Update No. 0-60
> Posted by Sarah Talalay at 11:40 PM

The Marlins scored a huge victory Tuesday when Miami-Dade Circuit Judge Jeri Beth Cohen ruled their ballpark serves a “paramount public purpose” – meaning public dollars can be used to help build it.

The team, Miami-Dade County and city of Miami believe the ruling in the case filed by auto dealer Norman Braman targeting the financing for $3 billion in Miami projects, including the ballpark, means they can move ahead with their plans for the $515 million stadium at the site of the former Orange Bowl.

They plan to step up negotiations of definitive construction, financing and other documents so they can bring them to city and county commissioners in the coming weeks. And the team says it will finally be able to share new renderings of the ballpark soon.

“We welcome Judge Cohen’s ruling, which confirms that our elected officials have made the right decision for the future of our community. It is unfortunate that so much time and so much of the public’s money has been wasted in this legal process,” Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria said in a statement. “This is a critical step in securing the long-term future of Major League Baseball in Miami. We will proceed immediately to finalize discussions with the County and the City to put in place all the long-awaited final agreements.”

Interestingly, Cohen’s ruling indicated that she understood the ballpark issue is “contentious and emotional,” but acknowledged it was the court’s role to apply the law, not sentiment.

“While the Court agrees with Plaintiff that the Marlins are getting what amounts to a “sweet deal,” this is, put bluntly, not the business of this Court,” Cohen wrote in her 41-page ruling.

The team would like to begin construction by year’s end and open the 37,000-seat retractable roof ballpark in 2011. That time frame is getting exceedingly unlikely, but hasn’t been written off yet.

“Our plan is to recommend to the board that we proceed as we’ve always intended,” Miami-Dade County Manager George Burgess said. “We’re happy about the project … We’re committed to a project and if you’re confident in your position, why would you stop?”

Braman, however, plans to continue his legal fight, taking his case to appellate court.

“We’re disappointed in the judge’s ruling, but not that surprised by it,” Braman said. “We’re going to be appealing the judge’s decision, we’re optimistic we’re going to prevail on appeal. This is the first round of a fight, that we expected would last beyond the lower court.”

Braman said he will take the case to appellate court and even as far as the Florida Supreme Court, if necessary.

He also quoted Winston Churchill as saying “Never, never, never, never, never, never surrender your principles. Fight on.”

Besides, he said, “This is the end of the third inning of a nine-inning game. It’s got six more innings to go.”

Among the items Braman is referring to is the one remaining count in his case on which Cohen has yet to rule: whether a portion of the financing for the $3 billion in city projects must go to a vote of the public.

Cohen said she will not rule until after Sept. 15, as she is waiting for the Florida Supreme Court to rule on similar cases.

But the team, city and county say that ruling is immaterial to the ballpark since the financing for the venue does not rely on property taxes.

Braman, however, disagrees. He believes the entire financing package for the Miami projects must go to public referendum.

Burgess and Marlins President David Samson say the referendum question is unrelated to the ballpark.

“All I can say is he can avail himself of whatever legal process is his right,” Samson said. “As far as we’re concerned this is the right result. We’re very confident it will be upheld at any and all appellate levels.”

Braman was not shocked to learn the team plans to move forward.

“There’s nothing here that surprises me,” Braman said. “They still have to get bonding. If they get someone silly enough to get them bonding, if they’re willing to take that risk, that’s their problem, not mine.”
————————————————————————————-
Miami Herald

Posted on Wed, Sep. 10, 2008
Judge: Florida Marlins stadium serves public good

BY CHARLES RABIN AND LARRY LEBOWITZ

The Florida Marlins took a major stride Tuesday in their lengthy quest for a permanent South Florida home, when a judge ruled that a new ballpark funded primarily through tax dollars serves the public good.

With Miami-Dade Circuit Court Judge Jeri Beth Cohen’s ruling, the county and Marlins said they will move ahead with construction of the $515 million, 37,000-seat, retractable-roof stadium in Little Havana.

”This is the one we’ve been waiting for,” said Marlins President David Samson. “It’s a complete victory. It took a long time.”

County Mayor Carlos Alvarez on Tuesday restated what he told the court during his deposition: Building the ballpark will revitalize the neighborhood and create much-needed jobs.

”When the economy is hurting, it means thousands of jobs — good-paying construction jobs — for people who need them now,” he said.

The team and government are going forward even as one of billionaire auto dealer Norman Braman’s seven lawsuit counts has yet to be adjudged. They believe that issue — involving the complex financing that set the stadium and a string of other public works projects in motion — would not affect the new ballpark eyed for the former Orange Bowl site.

Braman took minor solace in Cohen’s 41-page ruling. Though Cohen found that the stadium meets the key ”public purpose” test, she also gave credence to his belief that the stadium can be viewed as a ”sweet deal” for the Marlins.

Cohen noted the county didn’t do an economic impact study for the Little Havana area, said the site has no link to downtown, noted the team did not have to make its financials public even though almost $400 million in public money would be spent, and agreed with Braman that clear proof does not exist that a new stadium would stimulate the neighborhood.

”It reminds me of a football game that you lose when all the statistics are on your side,” Braman said after the ruling. “It’s not what we believe the constitution of the state of Florida states, and we will appeal the judge’s decision to the Supreme Court.”

Replied Samson: “Let’s cut right through it. The trial court’s job is to apply the law — not to make the law.”

FORCE OF LAW

Ultimately, Cohen said the case law was unshakable, and that she could not counter 39 years of rulings that backed the Marlins, the county and the city of Miami’s contention that the public would benefit from a new stadium.

” . . . The law in Florida is clear that retaining a professional baseball team in Miami satisfies a paramount public purpose,” the judge wrote.

Braman sued the county, Miami and the Marlins over a smattering of issues, chief among them the claim that the use of $382 million in tourist tax dollars to build a private entity a ballpark does not serve a public purpose.

His bigger concern was that the public did not get a vote, through referendum, on the spending — part of a larger multibillion-dollar megaplan for Miami. Government leaders countered that the public elected the politicians who approved the development blueprint.

Tuesday’s ruling continued a string of losses for Braman, with all six lawsuit counts adjudged so far going against him.

Still on the table is a ruling from Cohen on the sole remaining count: whether the county can use Community Redevelopment Agency dollars to pay off a $484 million construction debt at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts.

Though that financing, on the surface, has no ties to building a ballpark, it’s all part of Miami’s most expansive public works plan in decades — the $3 billion deal to build a port tunnel, a park at Bicentennial, the ballpark and a streetcar system, and pay off the Arsht Center debt.

MORE MONEY

Paying off the debt frees up another pot of money to help fund the ballpark, Braman contends, noting that the team signed an agreement linking the arts center payoff and the ballpark.

The county argues it could build the stadium regardless of the arts center debt.

The agreement calls for the Marlins to put $120 million toward the stadium, and also repay the county another $35 million in “rent payments.”

Braman believes that if he wins on the last count, the court could potentially order a referendum on the spending at the Arsht Center. That, he believes, could doom the stadium.

The other side sees that last issue differently.

The ballpark, they said, will be financed with an array of tourist and convention-development and sports-franchise taxes, plus a $50 million bond voters approved in 2004 for Orange Bowl renovations — but no CRA funds.

Though Alvarez and County Manager George Burgess say there’s no link between the final ruling and the stadium, they’ve avoided answering how the Arsht Center debt would be paid off — if the judge rules it’s illegal.

Cohen said she’ll make her decision after the Supreme Court rules on a similar case from Escambia County. Initially, the court decided property tax money couldn’t be used to pay off bond debt without a public vote, a ruling that could have resonance in the Braman case.

The court then decided to rehear a motion and hasn’t issued a final ruling. There is no sense when Cohen will decide this issue.

Braman’s hope now is that, with a favorable ruling in that count, a political change of will would doom the stadium.

But Tuesday, the government was focused on the ruling at hand.

”We were quite confident that was how this ruling was going to come down,” Burgess said Tuesday at County Hall.

Miami Mayor Manny Diaz said the still-pending count of Braman’s suit will not hold back construction, though he couldn’t pinpoint the date for a stadium groundbreaking.

The city will move ”as fast as we humanly, physically, possibly can,” Diaz said.

The Marlins are pushing ahead with architectural drawings and finalizing arrangements with a contractor, all in the hopes of opening the 2011 season in the new park.

If the Marlins hope to break ground this year, county commissioners must finalize construction, management and other agreements; and city leaders need to approve land-platting and permits.

But that was the last thing on Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria’s mind Tuesday, shortly before his team took the field against National League rival Philadelphia.

The team said a retractable roof stadium would draw crowds otherwise driven away by South Florida’s steamy, rainy weather. One midday game last week drew fewer than 600 fans in their seats for the first pitch.

A new stadium would pour concession and skybox proceeds into the bottom line of a team that has won two World Series but has had among the lowest payrolls and attendance in baseball.

”We look forward to the Marlins playing in the new ballpark for generations to come,” Loria said in a prepared statement.

Miami Herald staff writer Michael R. Vasquez contributed to this report.
——————————————————

Posted in Marlins Ballpark & Finances | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Real poverty and those who fight it

Hint: It would include no one advocating a greater role for government in the life of the poor. Those types may be well-intentioned, but the goal of eliminating poverty is fundamentally at odds with the need to establish constituencies — i.e. folks to be ‘saved.’ To date, tobacco is the only industry which knowingly attempts to kill off their clientele.

A recent NYT article highlights the efforts of Chandra Bhan Prasad, a former Maoist revolutionary who was born into a Hindu caste system in India, and his advice to his fellow untouchables:

Get rid of your cattle, because the care of animals demands children’s labor. Invest in your children’s education instead of in jewelry or land. Cities are good for Dalit outcastes like us, and so is India’s new capitalism.

Gary Becker gives us the economic rationale which explains why Prasad’s belief — that competitive and open markets is the only hope for his caste [the poor] — is valid:

The Indian government early after it became independent in 1947 officially abolished the caste system, and especially the horrible position of the 160 million untouchables. Nevertheless, this caste experienced limited progress during the 40 years of socialism and slow economic growth that followed independence. Prasad became an economic liberal after seeing what he interpreted as the dramatic effects of 15 years of economic reform on the economic opportunities of the untouchables.

The economic theory of discrimination adds analytical support to Prasad’s observations. An employer discriminates against untouchables, women, or other minority members when he refuses to hire them even though they are cheaper relative to their productivity than the persons he does hire. Discrimination in this way raises his costs and lowers his profits. This puts him at a competitive disadvantage relative to employers who maximize their profits, and hire only on the basis of productivity per dollar of cost. Strongly discriminating employers, therefore, tend to lose out to other employers in competitive industries that have easy entry of new firms.

The rapid growth of world trade during the past several decades, and the increasing market orientation of different economies, sometimes raise rather than lower income inequality, as least for a while. However, trade and competition has made this inequality more dependent on differences in human and other capital, and less directly on skin color, gender, religion, caste, and other roots of discrimination. This is an unsung but major consequence of greater trade and globalization.

Not coincidentally, that belief strongly correlates with the work being done by Muhammad Yunus, of neighboring Bangladesh, founder of the Grameen Bank and pioneer of the the micro-lending movement.

See the complete article and post referenced above, below.

———————————————————————————-

August 30, 2008
Crusader Sees Wealth as Cure for Caste Bias
By SOMINI SENGUPTA

AZAMGARH DISTRICT, India — When Chandra Bhan Prasad visits his ancestral village in these feudal badlands of northern India, he dispenses the following advice to his fellow untouchables: Get rid of your cattle, because the care of animals demands children’s labor. Invest in your children’s education instead of in jewelry or land. Cities are good for Dalit outcastes like us, and so is India’s new capitalism.

Mr. Prasad was born into the Pasi community, once considered untouchable on the ancient Hindu caste order. Today, a chain-smoking, irrepressible didact, he is the rare outcaste columnist in the English language press and a professional provocateur. His latest crusade is to argue that India’s economic liberalization is about to do the unthinkable: destroy the caste system. The last 17 years of new capitalism have already allowed his people, or Dalits, as they call themselves, to “escape hunger and humiliation,” he says, if not residual prejudice.

At a time of tremendous upheaval in India, Mr. Prasad is a lightning rod for one of the country’s most wrenching debates: Has India’s embrace of economic reforms really uplifted those who were consigned for centuries to the bottom of the social ladder? Mr. Prasad, who guesses himself to be in his late 40s because his birthday was never recorded, is an anomaly, often the lone Dalit in Delhi gatherings of high-born intelligentsia.

He has the zeal of an ideological convert: he used to be a Maoist revolutionary who, by his own admission, dressed badly, carried a pistol and recruited his people to kill their upper-caste landlords. He claims to have failed in that mission.

Mr. Prasad is a contrarian. He calls government welfare programs patronizing. He dismisses the countryside as a cesspool. Affirmative action is fine, in his view, but only to advance a small slice into the middle class, who can then act as role models. He calls English “the Dalit goddess,” able to liberate Dalits.

Along with India’s economic policies, once grounded in socialist ideals, Mr. Prasad has moved to the right. He is openly and mischievously contemptuous of leftists. “They have a hatred for those who are happy,” he said.

There are about 200 million Dalits, or members of the Scheduled Castes, as they are known officially, in India. They remain socially scorned in city and country, and they are over-represented among India’s uneducated, malnourished and poor.

The debate over caste in the New India is more than academic. India’s leaders are under growing pressure to alleviate poverty and inequality. Now, all kinds of groups are clamoring for what Dalits have had for 50 years — quotas in university seats, government jobs and elected office — making caste one of the country’s most divisive political issues. Moreover, there are growing demands for caste quotas in the private sector.

Mr. Prasad’s latest mission is sure to stir the debate. He is conducting a qualitative survey of nearly 20,000 households here in northern state of Uttar Pradesh to measure how everyday life has changed for Dalits since economic liberalization began in 1991. The preliminary findings, though far from generalizable, reveal subtle shifts.

The survey, financed by the Center for the Advanced Study of India at the University of Pennsylvania, finds that Dalits are far less likely to be engaged in their traditional caste occupations — for instance, the skinning of animals, considered ritually unclean — than they used to be and more likely to enjoy social perks once denied them. In rural Azamgarh District, for instance, nearly all Dalit households said their bridegrooms now rode in cars to their weddings, compared with 27 percent in 1990. In the past, Dalits would not have been allowed to ride even horses to meet their brides; that was considered an upper-caste privilege.

Mr. Prasad credits the changes to a booming economy. “It has pulled them out of the acute poverty they were in and the day-to-day humiliation of working for a landlord,” he said.

To prove his point, Mr. Prasad recently brought journalists here to his home district. In one village, Gaddopur, his theory was borne out in the tale of a gaunt, reticent man named Mahesh Kumar, who went to work in a factory 300 miles away so his family would no longer have to live as serfs, tending the animals of the upper caste.

When he was a child, Dalits like him had to address their upper-caste landlords as “babu-saab,” close to “master.” Now it is acceptable to call them “uncle” or “brother,” just as people would members of their own castes.

Today, Mr. Kumar, 61 and uneducated, owns an airless one-room factory on the outskirts of Delhi, with a basic gas-fired machine to press bolts of fabric for garment manufacturers. With money earned there, he and his sons have built a proper brick and cement house in their village.

Similar tales are echoed in many other villages across India. But here is the problem with Mr. Prasad’s survey. Even if it chronicles progress, the survey cannot tie it to any one cause, least of all economic changes. In fact, other empirical studies in this budding area of inquiry show that in parts of India where economic liberalization has had the greatest impact, neither rural poverty nor the plight of Dalits has consistently improved.

Abhijit Banerjee, an economist at M.I.T. who studies poverty in India, says that the reform years coincide with the rise of Dalit politicians, and that both factors may have contributed to a rise in confidence among Dalits.

Moreover, Old India’s caste prohibitions have made sure that some can prosper more easily than others. India’s new knowledge-based economy rewards the well-educated and highly skilled, and education for centuries was the preserve of the upper castes.

Today, discrimination continues, with some studies suggesting that those with familiar lower-caste names fare worse in job interviews, even with similar qualifications. The Indian elite, whether corporate heads, filmmakers, even journalists, is still dominated by the upper castes.

From across India still come reports of brutality against untouchables trying to transcend their destiny.

It is a measure of the hardships of rural India that so many Dalits in recent years are migrating to cities for back-breaking, often unregulated jobs, and that those who remain in their villages consider sharecropping a step up from day labor.

On a journey across these villages with Mr. Prasad, it is difficult to square the utter destitution of his people with Dalit empowerment. In one village, the government health center has collapsed into a pile of bricks. Few homes have toilets. Children run barefoot. In Gaddopur, the Dalit neighborhood still sits on the edge of the village — so as not to pollute the others, the thinking goes — and in the monsoon, when the fields are flooded, the only way to reach the Dalits’ homes is to tramp ankle deep in mud. The land that leads to the Dalit enclave is owned by intermediate castes, and they have not allowed for it to be used to build a proper brick lane.

Indu Jaiswal, 21, intends to be the first Dalit woman of Gaddopur to get a salaried job. She has persuaded her family to let her defer her marriage by a few years, an audacious demand here, so she could finish college and get a stable government job. “With education comes change,” Ms. Jaiswal said. “You learn how to talk. You learn how to work. And you get more respect.”

Without education, the migrants from Gaddopur also know, they can go only so far in the big cities that Mr. Prasad so ardently praises. Their fabric-pressing factories in and around Delhi have been losing business lately, as the big textile factories acquire computerized machines far more efficient than their own crude contraptions. One man with knowledge of computers can do the work of 10 of their men, they say. Neither Mr. Kumar, nor the two sons who work with him, can afford to buy these new machines. Even if they could, they know nothing about computers.

The village Dalits do not challenge Mr. Prasad with such contradictions as he travels among them preaching the virtues of economic liberalization. He is a big man, a success story that makes them proud.

Among the broad generalizations he favors, he says that Dalits aspire to marry upper-caste Brahmins to step up the ladder. He married a woman from his own caste, who, he proudly points out, is light-skinned. Across the caste ladder, fair complexion is still preferred over dark.

“Economic expansion is going to neutralize caste in 50 years,” he predicted. “It will not end caste.”
—————————————————————————————
September 07, 2008
Competitive Markets and Discrimination Against Minorities – Gary Becker

An eye-opening article in the New York Times on August 29th discusses the effects of India’s economic reforms and subsequent economic growth on the poverty and progress of the untouchables. This is India’s lowest and poorest caste whose members have been shunned by the other castes for centuries. They have been confined to the dirtiest and least desirables jobs. The article is built around the views of a successful untouchable, Chandra Bhan Prasad, a former Maoist revolutionary who is married to another untouchable. His observations and interpretation of the effects of India’s economic liberalization that started in 1991 on progress of some untouchables converted him to the belief that competitive and open markets is the only hope for his caste.

The Indian government early after it became independent in 1947 officially abolished the caste system, and especially the horrible position of the 160 million untouchables. Nevertheless, this caste experienced limited progress during the 40 years of socialism and slow economic growth that followed independence. Prasad became an economic liberal after seeing what he interpreted as the dramatic effects of 15 years of economic reform on the economic opportunities of the untouchables.

The economic theory of discrimination adds analytical support to Prasad’s observations (see my The Economics of Discrimination, 2nd. ed., 1973). An employer discriminates against untouchables, women, or other minority members when he refuses to hire them even though they are cheaper relative to their productivity than the persons he does hire. Discrimination in this way raises his costs and lowers his profits. This puts him at a competitive disadvantage relative to employers who maximize their profits, and hire only on the basis of productivity per dollar of cost. Strongly discriminating employers, therefore, tend to lose out to other employers in competitive industries that have easy entry of new firms.

This is why minorities typically do better in new industries with young and initially smaller firms. Both Jews and American blacks were accepted more readily in Hollywood in its early days than in other established industries, like steel making and banking, although blacks were limited primarily to entertainment roles. Contrast this with American baseball, where the major league owners had a virtual monopoly of the industry. They did not accept any black players until Branch Rickey broke the color bar in 1947 by promoting Jackie Robinson from the minor leagues to the Brooklyn Dodgers. This long delay in accepting blacks by the baseball monopoly occurred despite the fact that for decades many outstanding black players could be observed playing in segregated Negro leagues.

Employee discrimination against minority fellow workers-such as a male worker who does not want to work for a female boss- cannot be so easily competed away by non-discriminating employers. For they have to pay discriminating employees more, perhaps a lot more, to work with minority members. A similar argument applies to consumers who do not want to be served by particular minorities. Yet in these cases too, competition can blunt the impact of prejudice. For profit-maximizing employers will attempt to avoid the cost of discriminating employers by segregating minorities into separate companies. For example, women bosses may have mainly women employees, or untouchable foremen will supervise untouchable workers.

Segregated minority workers in competitive markets may get paid just as much relative to their productivity as do majority workers in these markets. In a fundamental way, segregation can serve as a way to bypass the prejudices of other workers, consumers, and employers. When Jews could not get work in the banking industry at the turn of 20th century, they began to open their own banks that hired mainly other Jews. African -American doctors and dentists in the old South catered to other blacks as their patients.

Globalization and the growth of world trade have added another competitive force against discrimination, one that is surely helping Indian untouchables and other minorities. As I mentioned earlier, costs of production are raised when employers discriminate against various minorities in their country. Employers in other countries not burdened with costs of discrimination will be able to undersell discriminating employers in the international market for goods. This too acts as a force lowering the impact of discriminating employers, and reduces the international competitiveness of countries where discrimination in employment is dominant.

The slow growth of the old American South is a good illustration of the effects of international and interregional competition. Discrimination against former slaves was rampant in most parts of the South. Private desires to discriminate were supported and often enforced by discrimination by state and local governments. Blacks were denied access to schools of equal quality, and local governments sometimes retaliated against local companies that promoted blacks to higher-level positions. As a result, Southern manufacturing companies were at a disadvantage relative to companies from the North and West, and also to those from other countries. In good measure because of this systematic government discrimination, and private discrimination enforced often by government pressures, the South performed poorly for a century after the end of the Civil War.

The rapid growth of world trade during the past several decades, and the increasing market orientation of different economies, sometimes raise rather than lower income inequality, as least for a while. However, trade and competition has made this inequality more dependent on differences in human and other capital, and less directly on skin color, gender, religion, caste, and other roots of discrimination. This is an unsung but major consequence of greater trade and globalization.
—————————————————————————————-
September 07, 2008
Competition, Discrimination, and Law — Richard Posner’s Comment

Becker points to India as an example of a society in which competition has been more effective than law in reducing discrimination in employment. As with most analyses of historical phenomena, determining causation is rife with uncertainty. Had the Indian government not abolished the caste system, would discrimination against untouchables have declined as much as it has?

The question is of more than academic interest from an American standpoint because we have laws against so many forms of employment discrimination–discrimination on racial grounds, of course, but also on grounds of ethnicity, religion, sex, disability, and age. We also had a caste system in the South until relatively recently. So do we need discrimination laws, or can competition be relied on to eliminate discrimination?

The answer I would give is that competition cannot be relied upon to eliminate discrimination (nor has Becker ever argued that it can be), but that, even so, laws against discrimination may not be desirable on balance, at least from the standpoint of economic efficiency, as distinct from making a political or moral statement. They may also not be very effective. I will confine my analysis largely to employment discrimination.

If an important class of customers does not want to be served by, say, black employees, or if an important class of workers does not want to work with black employees, then the tendency in the absence of a discrimination law, as Becker explains, will be segregation of the workforce: the market will be served by a combination of all-white and all-black firms. If, however, segregation raises employers’ costs by more than the increase in wages that they would have to pay their white employees to induce them to work side by side with blacks, plus the loss of net revenues from white customers who do not want to be served by black employees, there will be competitive pressure on the employers to integrate their work forces. The pressure will depend in part on how strong the whites’ aversion to working with or dealing with blacks is. There is no reason for competition to affect that aversion, other than by bringing the costs of it home to employers and through them to their white workers and customers.

Although law can try to eliminate employment discrimination, it is unlikely to be very effective and if it is effective it may not be efficient. Take the second point first. Suppose white employees have a strong aversion to working with blacks. Then forbidding discrimination will impose a heavy cost on the white employees. If there are more of them than there are blacks, the cost to the white employees may exceed the benefits to the black employees. Of course, an antidiscrimination law may rest on a political or moral judgment that costs imposed by thwarting a taste for discrimination should not count in the social calculus, but that is a judgment outside of economics.

Now as to the efficacy of such laws: it is bound to be limited unless enforced by savage penalties, which our discrimination laws are not. There are three reasons for their limited efficacy. The first is that an employer who wants to continue discriminating against blacks can (within limits) reconfigure his work force to reduce his demand for skills likely to be possessed by black applicants for employment, can substitute capital for labor, and can relocate to areas in which the applicant pool contains few blacks. Second, felt legal pressure to hire blacks results in “affirmative action,” which both creates resentment among whites and casts some doubt on the average quality of black employees and so in effect stigmatizes the entire class. And third, because a discrimination law makes it more difficult to fire a member of the class protected by the law, it increases the cost of hiring members of the class and so increases the incentive to discriminate in hiring. There is some evidence that the passage of the Americans with Disabilities Act, forbidding discrimination against the disabled, led to an actual decline in the number of disabled persons employed.

Although an employment discrimination law is thus apt to be of limited (though not zero) efficacy, other bodies of law can play a large role—larger even than market forces—in reducing employment discrimination. Much employment is public, and public bodies can decide to incur the costs of eliminating discrimination in their work forces and hire many blacks. In addition, laws that reinforce a caste system, such as the Jim Crow laws in the southern states that persisted into the 1950s, can reduce employment opportunities for blacks beyond what private discrimination would do, for example by limiting their educational opportunities. The repeal or invalidation of such laws can thus indirectly increase black employment opportunities.

Deregulation is a minor but interesting legal change that tends to reduce discrimination. A regulated monopoly is constrained in the amount of monetary profit that it can obtain, but unconstrained in nonmonetary perks, including indulging a taste for discrimination.

Neither legal nor market forces have brought employment parity between whites and blacks in the United States. Parallel with the struggle of blacks for parity, Jews, East Asians, and immigrants generally, have made rapid economic progress and indeed (at least in the case of Jews and East Asians) largely overcome discrimination, yet without significant help from the law. An open economy provides opportunities even to victims of discrimination, especially if the victim group is large enough to achieve economies of scale in trade within the group. As members of the group grow modestly affluent and thus achieve a standard of living that enables them to assimilate to the larger culture, as by consuming similar goods and services and sending their children to good schools, discrimination against them declines because they cease to seem “different” from the majority. When members of a minority group talk and think and act like the majority and have the same tastes and in short share the same culture, the fact that they may have a different physical appearance ceases to count greatly against them, as indicated by high rates of intermarriage in the groups I have mentioned. Assimilation to the dominant culture, as yet incomplete for a great many blacks, may thus be the major force in reducing discrimination, with competition and law playing lesser roles.
———————————————————————–

Posted in Business & Economics | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment