Fund Investors Face Risk of Tax Hit Despite Losses

WSJ Tax article
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Fund Investors Face Risk of Tax Hit Despite Losses Many Managers Are Planning Capital-Gains Distributions Before the End of This Year

OCTOBER 22, 2008

By TOM HERMAN

For most mutual-fund investors, it’s been an abysmal year. The average U.S. diversified stock fund is down 33% through Monday, according to Morningstar Inc. Foreign stock funds have also posted steep declines, as have funds in most other categories.

And some investors may have to pay hefty tax bills on their losing funds anyway.

At issue are year-end capital-gains distributions. Mutual funds typically pay net capital gains to investors around the end of each year. These payments generally are taxable if the investments are held in a taxable account, rather than in a 401(k) plan or other tax-favored retirement account.

Considering diving back into a stock fund in the coming weeks? Keep these points in mind:

* Contact the fund first to see if it’s planning a taxable capital- gains payout.
* If the payout is significant, consider buying another fund or waiting until after the qualifying date.
* You also can invest in the fund in a tax- advantaged account.

Despite the stock market’s nose dive, many funds are likely to make year-end capital-gains distributions this year, fund managers and financial advisers predict. That means it may be a good time to consider selling some underperforming funds before they make a taxable distribution. It also means that bargain-hunters looking to get back into the market now need to be careful. Otherwise they could be saddled with a stiff tax bill that could easily have been avoided.

“Many people are looking for a time to step back into the market,” says Gary Schatsky, a fee-only financial adviser based in New York. If they’re planning on doing so through a taxable account at mutual funds, “they’d better be aware of the distribution dates of the mutual fund — and either wait to invest until after that date or find an alternative that doesn’t have onerous tax consequences.”

Most capital-gains payouts are made in December, and some fund families have already published preliminary 2008 payout estimates, based on results through late September, or will do so soon. For example, OppenheimerFunds says its Developing Markets fund, based on results through late September, had estimated short- and long-term capital gains of nearly $7.20 a share, or almost 20% of net asset value.

Why? “Emerging markets as a whole have done extremely well over the past three to five years, and as a result, the manager decided to close out some long-term holdings,” a spokesman says. Another reason: A new portfolio manager joined the fund last year, and the fund “underwent a significant reorientation and consolidation of its holdings,” he says. The company also says its Global Opportunities fund had estimated gains of around $3 a share, or more than 11% of its net asset value.

At T. Rowe Price Group, the number of funds making capital-gains distributions this year “has not declined very much,” says Greg Hinkle, treasurer of the T. Rowe Price Funds. “We had 50 funds that made capital-gains distributions last year.” Right now, he estimates that 42 funds will make distributions this year. But the total amount of those payments “is estimated to be less than half of last year’s total,” he says.

Vanguard Group “doesn’t expect more than a handful of capital-gains distributions for 2008, and those distributions will be on the modest side,” a spokesman says.

A Fidelity Investments spokesman says it’s difficult to give details on capital-gains payouts just yet. “However, broadly speaking, we believe only a few Fidelity funds will pay distributions of capital gains this year, unlike in recent years, and that the amount of the distributions will generally be significantly lower,” the spokesman says.

Some of Capital Research and Management Co.’s American Funds are likely to make year-end payouts, says Maura Griffin, a spokeswoman. Among them is the New Perspective fund, a global blue-chip stock fund. Based on Sept. 30 results, the fund estimates a payout of 7% to 9% of its net asset value, according to the group’s Web site. The distribution will be paid Dec. 24 to shareholders of record Dec. 23.

Similarly, the company expects its New World fund, a global growth fund, to pay out around 4% to 6% of its net asset value, with the same distribution and record dates as the New Perspective fund, Ms. Griffin says. Most other funds in the family are expected to make much smaller payouts, or none at all, she says.

“Investors may wonder why, in a declining market, capital gains could be possible,” Ms. Griffin says. “These realized gains are not short-term but are correlated to stocks we held for several years that had strengthened before fund managers chose to sell them.”

Before investing a significant amount of money in a fund in coming weeks, check to see if the fund is likely to be making a year-end payout, and if so, how much and when. Many fund organizations post this information on their Web sites. Then crunch the numbers to see if the payout will increase your taxes significantly. If the answer is yes, consider another fund — or wait to invest until after the date to qualify for the payment.

This doesn’t mean investors should automatically shy away from any fund planning year-end distributions. After all, one of the easiest ways to make a bad mistake is to make an investment decision based solely on tax considerations, instead of investment fundamentals.

“In markets with big daily moves, keep investment considerations foremost,” says T. Rowe Price’s Mr. Hinkle. “If you stay out of a fund for one day to avoid a 5% distribution, but lose out on a 6% or 7% upward market move that day, you’ve lost ground.”

Nobody knows the exact amount of gains that will be handed out this year, or even how many funds will be making them, since the accounting period for the year isn’t over yet. But fund managers say the total number of funds making payments, as well as the dollar amounts, are expected to be far below a year ago, when funds made their largest payouts in history.

According to the Investment Company Institute, mutual funds distributed nearly $415 billion in capital gains to shareholders in 2007. That total, which includes both paid and reinvested capital gains, was up sharply from about $257 billion in 2006. About 36% of the 2007 distributions were paid to taxable household accounts, the ICI says. Stock funds typically account for the bulk of the distributions.

Investors can offset capital gains and losses on a dollar-for-dollar basis, with no limit. If your losses exceed your gains, or if you have no gains at all, you typically can deduct as much as $3,000 of net capital losses ($1,500 if you’re married and filing separately from your spouse) from wages and other ordinary income. Additional losses are carried over into future years.

But if you sell and decide to reinvest the proceeds quickly, be careful you don’t run afoul of what are known as the “wash sale” rules. You can’t deduct losses from sales of stock or other securities in a wash sale, which typically occurs when you sell or trade securities at a loss and buy the same, or “substantially identical,” securities within 30 days before or after a sale.

If an investor does sink money into a fund just before a sizable year-end distribution, there is at least one consolation, according to the Ernst & Young Tax Guide 2008. Your higher basis will reduce the amount of any capital gain on a later sale — or, if you sell the fund at a loss, it will increase the size of your capital loss. However, the guide says, “if you want to limit your current tax liability and lower your basis in the shares, you should delay your purchase of fund shares until after the record date for the distribution.”

Many workers will pay higher Social Security taxes next year.

The maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax in 2009 will be $106,800, the Social Security Administration said. That’s up $4,800, or 4.7%, from $102,000 this year. This dollar threshold is adjusted annually to reflect changes in average wages.

Thus the maximum additional Social Security tax that might be collected on an employee earning above the 2008 wage base will be $297.60, says Avram Sacks, Social Security law analyst at CCH, which provides tax and payroll information and software and is part of Wolters Kluwer Law & Business.

“Taxes for self-employed individuals use the same earnings base, but the rates are double those of employees, since the self-employed must also pay the ’employer’ portion of the taxes,” says Mr. Sacks. “This means that high-earning, self-employed individuals may owe as much as $595.20 in additional self-employment tax in 2009. However, they can recoup some of this amount through a deduction on their federal income tax.”

Of the estimated 164 million workers who will pay Social Security taxes in 2009, about 11 million will pay higher taxes due to this increase in the taxable minimum, the Social Security Administration said.

The rate for the “hospital insurance,” or Medicare, tax stays at 1.45%. This applies to every dollar you earn.
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Powell’s exit strategy on Obama

Well at least Colin Powell practices what he preaches. Just as in his advice to President Bush about the Iraq war, his endorsement of Obama contained an exit strategy. I come at this from the following perspective, everything Powell said on Sunday was carefully thought out and executed. If you don’t believe that, and assume that he answered off-the-cuff, then I am making too much of this. But remember that this is someone who is used to having his words carefully parsed. Here is what Powell said on separate occasions:

  • … trying to suggest that, because of this very, very limited relationship that Senator Obama has had with Mr. Ayers
  • … because Mr. Barack Obama had some contacts of a very casual nature–they sat on a educational board–over time is somehow connected to his thinking or his actions

Here is what Powell could have said that would not have made his endorsement of Obama conditional on the depth of the alliance between Obama and Ayers:

  • Look Tom, I know that in politics people make all sorts of contacts and associations which don’t reflect their beliefs, it’s one of the reasons I’m not a politician [chuckle]
  • I’ve read about the Ayers allegations and I don’t find them persuasive, what I do find persuasive …
  • Tom, I’m very uncomfortable with the whole guilt by association mentality implicit in the Ayers attacks.

I believe that over time the Ayers alliance will be proven to be much more than casual. Perhaps even at the level of Ayers having helped Obama write his first book [ghost-writers are very common for politicians]. I also believe that practically all who support Obama today will shrug their shoulders when that happens. But it will matter then if he’s lying now and I suspect it matters to Powell as well.

All articles referenced are copied in full at end of post.

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Meet the Press – 10/19/08
MSNBC.com – Oct. 19: Former Secretary of State Gen. Colin Powell (Ret.), Chuck Todd, political roundtable
Former Secretary of State Gen. Colin Powell (Ret.), Chuck Todd, David Brooks, Jon Meacham, Andrea Mitchell, Joe Scarborough
updated 12:04 p.m. ET, Sun., Oct. 19, 2008

MR. TOM BROKAW: Our issues this Sunday: He served as President George W. Bush’s secretary of state and was once called the man most likely to become the nation’s first African-American president. He has been courted by both the Obama and McCain presidential campaigns and said this last month:

(Videotape)

GEN. COLIN POWELL (RET.): I have been watching both of these individuals. I know them both extremely well, and I have not decided who I’m going to vote for yet.

(End videotape)

MR. BROKAW: Is he now ready to make an endorsement in this presidential race? What are his thoughts on the major issues facing the country and the world? Our exclusive guest this Sunday, former Secretary of State General Colin Powell.

Then, with 16 days to go, Decision 2008 heads into the home stretch. What states still are in play? We will hear the latest on some new state polls with NBC’s political director, Chuck Todd. Also, insights and analysis on the race to the White House with David Brooks of The New York Times, Jon Meacham of Newsweek magazine, Andrea Mitchell of NBC News, and Joe Scarborough of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

But first, General Colin Powell, welcome back to MEET THE PRESS.

GEN. POWELL: Thank, thank you, Tom.

MR. BROKAW: We indicated in that opening, there is a lot of anticipation and speculation about your take on this presidential campaign. We’ll get to that in a moment. But in your old business we might call this a tour of the horizon. Whoever’s elected president of the United States, that first day in the Oval Office on January 21st will face this: an American economy that’s in a near paralytic state at this time; we’re at war in two different countries, Afghanistan and Iraq; we have an energy crisis; we have big decisions to make about health care and about global climate change. The president of the United States and the Congress of the United States now have the highest disapproval ratings that we have seen in many years. In all your years of public service, have you ever seen an incoming president face such daunting challenges?

GEN. POWELL: No. I have seen more difficult times in our history. I think about the early ’70s when we were going through Watergate, Spiro Agnew, Nixon period, that was not a good time. But right now we’re also facing a very daunting period. And I think the number one issue the president’s going to have to deal with is the economy. That’s what the American people are worried about. And, frankly, it’s not just an American problem, it’s an international problem. We can see how all of these economies are now linked in this globalized system. And I think that’ll be number one. The president will also have to make decisions quickly as to how to deal with Iraq and Afghanistan. And also I think the president has to reach out to the world and show that there is a new president, a new administration that is looking forward to working with our friends and allies. And in my judgment, also willing to talk to people who we have not been willing to talk to before. Because this is a time for outreach.

MR. BROKAW: Given the state of the American economy, can we continue our military commitments around the world at the level that they now exist?

GEN. POWELL: We can. I think we have to look as to whether they have to be at that level. But we have the wealth, we have the wherewithal to do that. (Clears throat) Excuse me, Tom. We have the ability to do that. And so, first and foremost, we have to review those commitments, see what they are, see what else is needed, and make sure we give our troops what they need to get the job done as we have defined the job. We have that ability.

MR. BROKAW: If you were called into the Oval Office on January 21st by the new president, whoever it happens to be, and he said to you, “General Powell, I need from you your recommendation on where I begin. What should be my priorities?” Where would you start?

GEN. POWELL: I would start with talking to the American people and talking to the world, and conveying a new image of American leadership, a new image of America’s role in the world.

The problems will always be there, and there’s going to be a crisis come along in the 21st or 22nd of January that we don’t even know about right now. And so I think what the president has to do is to start using the power of the Oval Office and the power of his personality to convince the American people and to convince the world that America is solid, America is going to move forward, and we’re going to fix our economic problems, we’re going to meet our overseas obligations. But restoring a sense of purpose, a sense of confidence in the American people and, in the international community, in America.

MR. BROKAW: What’s not on the screen right now that concerns you that should be more prominent in the minds of the American people and the people running for president?

GEN. POWELL: I think the American people and the gentlemen running for president will have to, early on, focus on education more than we have seen in the campaign so far. America has a terrible educational problem in the sense that we have too many youngsters not finishing school. A third of our kids don’t finish high school, 50 percent of minorities don’t finish high school. We’ve got to work on this, and my, my wife and I are leading a campaign with this purpose.

Also, I think, the new president has to realize that the world looks to America for leadership, and so we have to show leadership on some issues that the world is expecting us to, whether it’s energy, global warming and the environment. And I think we have to do a lot more with respect to poverty alleviation and helping the needy people of the world. We need to increase the amount of resources we put into our development programs to help the rest of the world. Because when you help the poorest in the world, you start to move them up an economic and social ladder, and they’re not going to be moving toward violence or terrorism of the kind that we worry about.

MR. BROKAW: Well, let’s move to the American presidential campaign now, if we can. We saw at the beginning of this broadcast a short tease of what you had to say just a month ago. Let’s share with our viewers now a little more of Colin Powell on these two candidates and your position.

(Videotape, September 20, 2008)

GEN. POWELL: I’m an American, first and foremost, and I’m very proud–I said, I’ve said, I’ve said to my beloved friend and colleague John McCain, a friend of 25 years, “John, I love you, but I’m not just going to vote for you on the basis of our affection or friendship.” And I’ve said to Barack Obama, “I admire you. I’ll give you all the advice I can. But I’m not going to vote for you just because you’re black.” We, we have to move beyond this.

(End videotape)

MR. BROKAW: General Powell, actually you gave a campaign contribution to Senator McCain. You have met twice at least with Barack Obama. Are you prepared to make a public declaration of which of these two candidates that you’re prepared to support?

GEN. POWELL: Yes, but let me lead into it this way. I know both of these individuals very well now. I’ve known John for 25 years as your setup said. And I’ve gotten to know Mr. Obama quite well over the past two years. Both of them are distinguished Americans who are patriotic, who are dedicated to the welfare of our country. Either one of them, I think, would be a good president. I have said to Mr. McCain that I admire all he has done. I have some concerns about the direction that the party has taken in recent years. It has moved more to the right than I would like to see it, but that’s a choice the party makes. And I’ve said to Mr. Obama, “You have to pass a test of do you have enough experience, and do you bring the judgment to the table that would give us confidence that you would be a good president.”

And I’ve watched him over the past two years, frankly, and I’ve had this conversation with him. I have especially watched over the last six of seven weeks as both of them have really taken a final exam with respect to this economic crisis that we are in and coming out of the conventions. And I must say that I’ve gotten a good measure of both. In the case of Mr. McCain, I found that he was a little unsure as to deal with the economic problems that we were having and almost every day there was a different approach to the problem. And that concerned me, sensing that he didn’t have a complete grasp of the economic problems that we had. And I was also concerned at the selection of Governor Palin. She’s a very distinguished woman, and she’s to be admired; but at the same time, now that we have had a chance to watch her for some seven weeks, I don’t believe she’s ready to be president of the United States, which is the job of the vice president. And so that raised some question in my mind as to the judgment that Senator McCain made.

On the Obama side, I watched Mr. Obama and I watched him during this seven-week period. And he displayed a steadiness, an intellectual curiosity, a depth of knowledge and an approach to looking at problems like this and picking a vice president that, I think, is ready to be president on day one. And also, in not just jumping in and changing every day, but showing intellectual vigor. I think that he has a, a definitive way of doing business that would serve us well. I also believe that on the Republican side over the last seven weeks, the approach of the Republican Party and Mr. McCain has become narrower and narrower. Mr. Obama, at the same time, has given us a more inclusive, broader reach into the needs and aspirations of our people. He’s crossing lines–ethnic lines, racial lines, generational lines. He’s thinking about all villages have values, all towns have values, not just small towns have values.

And I’ve also been disappointed, frankly, by some of the approaches that Senator McCain has taken recently, or his campaign ads, on issues that are not really central to the problems that the American people are worried about. This Bill Ayers situation that’s been going on for weeks became something of a central point of the campaign. But Mr. McCain says that he’s a washed-out terrorist. Well, then, why do we keep talking about him? And why do we have these robocalls going on around the country trying to suggest that, because of this very, very limited relationship that Senator Obama has had with Mr. Ayers, somehow, Mr. Obama is tainted. What they’re trying to connect him to is some kind of terrorist feelings. And I think that’s inappropriate.

Now, I understand what politics is all about. I know how you can go after one another, and that’s good. But I think this goes too far. And I think it has made the McCain campaign look a little narrow. It’s not what the American people are looking for. And I look at these kinds of approaches to the campaign and they trouble me. And the party has moved even further to the right, and Governor Palin has indicated a further rightward shift. I would have difficulty with two more conservative appointments to the Supreme Court, but that’s what we’d be looking at in a McCain administration. I’m also troubled by, not what Senator McCain says, but what members of the party say. And it is permitted to be said such things as, “Well, you know that Mr. Obama is a Muslim.” Well, the correct answer is, he is not a Muslim, he’s a Christian. He’s always been a Christian. But the really right answer is, what if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer’s no, that’s not America. Is there something wrong with some seven-year-old Muslim-American kid believing that he or she could be president? Yet, I have heard senior members of my own party drop the suggestion, “He’s a Muslim and he might be associated terrorists.” This is not the way we should be doing it in America.

I feel strongly about this particular point because of a picture I saw in a magazine. It was a photo essay about troops who are serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. And one picture at the tail end of this photo essay was of a mother in Arlington Cemetery, and she had her head on the headstone of her son’s grave. And as the picture focused in, you could see the writing on the headstone. And it gave his awards–Purple Heart, Bronze Star–showed that he died in Iraq, gave his date of birth, date of death. He was 20 years old. And then, at the very top of the headstone, it didn’t have a Christian cross, it didn’t have the Star of David, it had crescent and a star of the Islamic faith. And his name was Kareem Rashad Sultan Khan, and he was an American. He was born in New Jersey. He was 14 years old at the time of 9/11, and he waited until he can go serve his country, and he gave his life. Now, we have got to stop polarizing ourself in this way. And John McCain is as nondiscriminatory as anyone I know. But I’m troubled about the fact that, within the party, we have these kinds of expressions.

So, when I look at all of this and I think back to my Army career, we’ve got two individuals, either one of them could be a good president. But which is the president that we need now? Which is the individual that serves the needs of the nation for the next period of time? And I come to the conclusion that because of his ability to inspire, because of the inclusive nature of his campaign, because he is reaching out all across America, because of who he is and his rhetorical abilities–and we have to take that into account–as well as his substance–he has both style and substance–he has met the standard of being a successful president, being an exceptional president. I think he is a transformational figure. He is a new generation coming into the world–onto the world stage, onto the American stage, and for that reason I’ll be voting for Senator Barack Obama.

MR. BROKAW: Will you be campaigning for him as well?

GEN. POWELL: I don’t plan to. Two weeks left, let them go at each other in the finest tradition. But I will be voting for him.

MR. BROKAW: I can already anticipate some of the reaction to this. Let’s begin with the charge that John McCain has continued to make against Barack Obama. You sit there, as a man who served in Vietnam, you commanded a battalion of 101st, you were chairman of the Joint Chiefs, you were a national security adviser and secretary of state. There is nothing in Barack Obama’s history that nearly paralyze any–parallels any of the experiences that you’ve had. And while he has performed impressively in the context of the campaign, there’s a vast difference between sitting in the Oval Office and making tough decisions and doing well in a campaign.

GEN. POWELL: And he knows that. And I have watched him over the last two years as he has educated himself, as he has become very familiar with these issues. He speaks authoritatively. He speaks with great insight into the challenges we’re facing of a military and political and economic nature. And he is surrounding himself, I’m confident, with people who’ll be able to give him the expertise that he, at the moment, does not have. And so I have watched an individual who has intellectual vigor and who dives deeply into issues and approaches issues with a very, very steady hand. And so I’m confident that he will be ready to take on these challenges on January 21st.

MR. BROKAW: And you are fully aware that there will be some–how many, no one can say for sure–but there will be some who will say this is an African-American, distinguished American, supporting another African-American because of race.

GEN. POWELL: If I had only had that in mind, I could have done this six, eight, 10 months ago. I really have been going back and forth between somebody I have the highest respect and regard for, John McCain, and somebody I was getting to know, Barack Obama. And it was only in the last couple of months that I settled on this. And I can’t deny that it will be a historic event for an African-American to become president. And should that happen, all Americans should be proud–not just African-Americans, but all Americans–that we have reached this point in our national history where such a thing could happen. It will also not only electrify our country, I think it’ll electrify the world.

MR. BROKAW: You have some differences with Barack Obama. He has said that once he takes office, he wants to begin removing American troops from Iraq. Here’s what you had to say about that: “I have found in my many years of service, to set arbitrary dates that don’t coincide with the situation on the ground or what actually is happening tends not to be a useful strategy. … Arbitrary deadlines that are snatched out of the air and are based on some lunar calculation is not the way to run a military or a strategic operation of this type.” That was on February 10th of this year on CNN. Now that you have Barack Obama’s ear in a new fashion, will you say to him, “Drop your idea of setting a deadline of some kind to pull the troops out of Iraq”?

GEN. POWELL: First of all, I think that’s a great line, and thanks for pulling it up. And I believe that. But as I watch what’s happening right now, the United States is negotiating the–an agreement with the Iraqi government that will call for most major combat operations to cease by next June and for American forces to start withdrawing to their bases. And that agreement will also provide for all American troops to be gone by 2011, but conditioned on the situation as it exists at that time. So there already is a timeline that’s being developed between the Iraqis and the United States government. So I think whoever becomes the president, whether it’s John McCain or whether it’s Barack Obama, we’re going to see a continued drawdown. And when, you know, which day so many troops come out or what units come out, that’ll be determined by the commanders and the new president. But I think we are on a glide path to reducing our presence in Iraq over the next couple of years. Increasingly, this problem’s going to be solved by the Iraqis. They’re going to make the political decisions, their security forces are going to take over, and they’re going to have to create an environment of reconciliation where all the people can come together and make Iraq a much, much better place.

MR. BROKAW: Let me go back to something that you raised just a moment ago, and that’s William Ayers, a former member of the Weathermen who’s now active in school issues in Illinois. He had some past association with Barack Obama. Wouldn’t it have been more helpful for William Ayers to, on his own, to have renounced his own past? Here was a man who was a part of the most radical group that existed in America at a time when you were serving in Vietnam, targeting the Pentagon, the Capitol. He wrote a book about it that came out on 2001, on September 11th that said, “We didn’t bomb enough.”

GEN. POWELL: It’s despicable, and I have no truck for William Ayers. I think what he did was despicable, and to continue to talk about it in 2001 is also despicable. But to suggest that because Mr. Barack Obama had some contacts of a very casual nature–they sat on a educational board–over time is somehow connected to his thinking or his actions, I think, is a, a terrible stretch. It’s demagoguery.

MR. BROKAW: I want to ask you about your own role in the decision to go to war in Iraq. Barack Obama has been critical of your appearance before the United Nations at that time. Bob Woodward has a new book out called “The War Within,” and here’s what he had to say about Colin Powell and his place in the administration: “Powell … didn’t think [Iraq] was a necessary war, and yet he had gone along in a hundred ways, large and small. He had resisted at times but had succumbed to the momentum and his own sense of deference–even obedience–to the president. … Perhaps more than anyone else in the administration, Powell had been the `closer’ for the president’s case on war.”

And then you were invited to appear before the Iraq Study Group. “`Why did we go into Iraq with so few people?’ [former Secretary of State James] Baker asked. … `Colin just exploded at that point,’ [former Secretary of Defense William] Perry recalled later. `He unloaded,’ Former White House Chief of Staff] Leon Panetta added. `He was angry. He was mad as hell.’ … Powell left [the Study Group meeting]. Baker turned to Panetta and said solemnly, `He’s the one guy who could have perhaps prevented this from happening.'”

What’s the lesson in all of that for a former–for a new secretary of state or for a new national security adviser, based on your own experience?

GEN. POWELL: Well, let’s start at the beginning. I said to the president in 2002, we should try to solve this diplomatically and avoid war. The president accepted that recommendation, we took it to the U.N. But the president, by the end of 2002, believed that the U.N. was not going to solve the problem, and he made a decision that we had to prepare for military action. I fully supported that. And I have never said anything to suggest I did not support going to war. I thought the evidence was there. And it is not just my closing of the whole deal with my U.N. speech. I know the importance of that speech, and I regret a lot of the information that the intelligence community provided us was wrong. But three months before my speech, with a heavy majority, the United States Congress expressed its support to use military force if it was necessary. And so we went in and used military force. My unhappiness was that we didn’t do it right. It was easy to get to Baghdad, but then we forgot that there was a lot more that had to be done. And we didn’t have enough force to impose our will in the country or to deal with the insurgency when it broke out, and that I regret.

MR. BROKAW: Removing the weapons of mass destruction from the equation…

GEN. POWELL: I also assure you that it was not a correct assessment by anybody that my statements or my leaving the administration would have stopped it.

MR. BROKAW: Removing the weapons of mass destruction from the equation, because we now know that they did not exist, was it then a war of necessity or just a war of choice?

GEN. POWELL: Without the weapons of mass destruction present, as conveyed to us by the intelligence community in the most powerful way, I don’t think there would have been a war. It was the reason we took it to the public, it was the reason we took it to the American people to the Congress, who supported it on that basis, and it’s the presentation I made to the United Nations. Without those weapons of mass destruction then Iraq did not present to the world the kind of threat that it did if it had weapons of mass destruction.

MR. BROKAW: You do know that there are supporters of Barack Obama who feel very strongly about his candidacy because he was opposed to the war from the beginning, and they’re going to say, “Who needs Colin Powell? He was the guy who helped get us into this mess.”

GEN. POWELL: I’m not here to get their approval or lack of approval. I am here to express my view as to who I’m going to vote for.

MR. BROKAW: There’s a summing up going on now as, as the Bush/Cheney administration winds down. We’d like to share with our audience some of what you had to say about the two men who are at the top of the administration. At the convention in 2000, this is Colin Powell on President Bush and Dick Cheney at that time.

(Videotape, July 31, 2000)

GEN. POWELL: Dick Cheney is one of the most distinguished and dedicated public servants this nation has ever had. He will be a superb vice president.

The Bush/Cheney team will be a great team for America. They will put our nation on a course of hope and optimism for this new century.

(End videotape)

MR. BROKAW: Was that prophetic or wrong?

GEN. POWELL: It’s what I believed. It reflected the agenda of the new president, compassionate conservatism. And some of it worked out. I think we have advanced our freedom agenda, I think we’ve done a lot to help people around the world with our programs of development. I think we’ve done a lot to solve some conflicts such as in Liberia and elsewhere. But, at the same time, we have managed to convey to the world that we are more unilateral than we really are. We have not explained ourself well enough. And we, unfortunately, have left an impression with the world that is not a good one. And the new president is going to have to fix the reputation that we’ve left with the rest of the world.

Now, let me make a point here. The United States is still seen as the leader at the world that wants to be free. Even though the numbers are down with respect to favorability ratings, at every embassy and consular office tomorrow morning that we have, people will be lined up, and they’ll all say the same thing, “We want to go to America.” So we’re still the leader of the world that wants to be free. We are still the inspiration of the rest of the world. And we can come back. In 2000, it was moment where I believed that the new administration coming in would be able to achieve the agenda that President-elect Bush had set out of compassionate conservatism.

MR. BROKAW: But it failed?

GEN. POWELL: I don’t think it was as successful–excuse me (clears throat)–I don’t think it was as successful as it might have been. And, as you see from the presidential approval ratings, the American people have found the administration wanting.

MR. BROKAW: Let me as, you a couple of questions–quick questions as we wrap all of this up. I know you’re very close to President Bush 41. Are you still in touch with him on a regular basis? And what do you think he’ll think about you this morning endorsing Barack Obama?

GEN. POWELL: I will let President Bush 41, speak for himself and let others speak for themselves, just as I have spoken for myself. Let me make one point, Tom, both Senator McCain and Senator Obama will be good presidents. It isn’t easy for me to disappoint Senator McCain in the way that I have this morning, and I regret that. But I strongly believe that at this point in America’s history, we need a president that will not just continue, even with a new face and with some changes and with some maverick aspects, who will not just continue, basically, the policies that we have been following in recent years. I think we need a transformational figure. I need–think we need a president who is a generational change. And that’s why I’m supporting Barack Obama. Not out of any lack of respect or admiration for Senator John McCain.

MR. BROKAW: And finally, how much of a factor do you think race will be when voters go into that booth on November 4th?

GEN. POWELL: I don’t know the answer to that question. One may say that it’s going to be a big factor, and a lot of people say they will vote for Senator Obama but they won’t pull a lever. Others might say that has already happened. People are already finding other reasons to say they’re not voting for him. “Well, he’s a Muslim,” “He’s this.” So we have already seen the so-called “Bradley factor” in the current–in the current spread between the candidates. And so that remains to be seen. I hope it is not the case. I think we have advanced considerably in this country since the days of Tom Bradley. And I hope that is not the case. It would be very unfortunate if it were the case.

MR. BROKAW: Finally, if Senator Obama is elected president, will there be a place for Colin Powell in that administration? Maybe as the ambassador at large in Africa or to take on the daunting task of resolving the Israeli/Palestinian issue?

GEN. POWELL: I served 40 years in government, and I–I’m not looking forward to a position or an assignment. Of course, I have always said if a president asks you to do something, you have to consider it. But I am in no way interested in returning to government. But I, of course, would sit and talk to any president who wishes to talk to me.

MR. BROKAW: You’re not ruling it out?

GEN. POWELL: I would sit and talk to any president who wishes to talk to me, but I’m not anxious to rule it in.

MR. BROKAW: General Colin Powell, thank you very much for being with us this morning. Appreciate it.

GEN. POWELL: Thank you, Tom.
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Why the Amish don’t have mustaches

Clearly, I am referring to the men.

Anyways, I was flipping through the Miami Herald yesterday and spot a full-page ad for an Amish ‘Miracle’ Heater. Their uniformity of appearance triggered my curiosity and within 3 seconds unproductive neurons planted the the mustache question in my brain. The web and my lack of discipline being what they are, within 43 seconds I had my answer. Then the fun began, they have a web site, a toll-free number and a 30-day satisfaction guaranteed warranty. This was weird on many levels;

  1. Yes, they can justify the web site because they don’t maintain it. I’m sure this distinction was inspired during the Clinton years.
  2. I’m hoping the Herald ad was part of a national ad buy, otherwise some black hats will have to roll over pushing the heater idea for the South Florida market.
  3. Post Title question – A long beard is the mark of an adult Amishman. Mustaches, on the other hand, have a long history of being associated with the military, and therefore are forbidden among the Amish people.
  4. It’s hard to see, but in the ad picture, an Amish worker in the background had the following crocheted on the back of her bonnet, ‘McCain reminds me of W.’ It’s been that kind of week for the McCain campaign….

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Hopkins Win

Miami Herald boxing article by Santos Perez on Bernard Hopkins.
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Hopkins looks like his old self in win against Pavlik

Posted on Mon, Oct. 20, 2008

BY SANTOS A. PEREZ

As New Jersey boxing officials counted the scorecards of Bernard Hopkins’ inevitable victory, Hopkins found the appropriate occasion to stand near those who predict outcomes of fights.

Hopkins stared without saying a word. His silent yet forceful glare at media members sitting at press row spoke volumes.

“Never underestimate Bernard Hopkins.”

Given minimal opportunity to win, Hopkins taught Kelly Pavlik a boxing lesson in their light-heavyweight fight late Saturday in Atlantic City. The 43-year-old Hopkins controlled the pace in a convincing unanimous decision.

”I wanted to stop him because [media] have been saying I’ve been playing it safe because of my age,” Hopkins said. “So [Saturday] I wanted to pick it up.”

Hopkins didn’t knock out Pavlik but inflicted enough damage on the previously unbeaten middleweight champion. Hopkins’ effective and quick combinations left Pavlik bruised, bloodied and bewildered.

All three judges verified Hopkins’ near-flawless performance, scoring the bout 119-106, 118-108 and 117-109.

”Styles make fights,” Hopkins said. “He is a great fighter but I knew my style and quickness was being underrated.”

And so was Hopkins’ future in the sport.

A loss against Joe Calzaghe on April 19 seemingly had Hopkins headed for extinction. Uncertainty about his career further escalated when Hopkins agreed to fight the 26-year-old Pavlik, who had stopped 30 of his first 34 opponents.

But Hopkins was intent on disproving the doubters. With co-trainers Nazim Richardson and John David Jackson, Hopkins prepared for the fight at Normandy Gym in Miami Beach, devising strategy and undergoing an arduous physical regimen for a bout many of the so-called experts expected him to lose.

Hopkins (49-5-1) was far from a finished fighter Saturday. From the opening round, Hopkins set the tone with quick shots to the head. Pavlik (34-1) pursued and sought to initiate action but Hopkins adeptly slipped his combinations or clinched in limiting Pavlik’s punch volume.

”I just couldn’t get off, I don’t know why,” Pavlik said. “It wasn’t because of Bernard’s slickness. There was something wrong with me [Saturday].”

Considered a rising star, Pavlik moved up 10 pounds to face Hopkins. After the fight, Pavlik confirmed a return to the 160-pound middleweight class, where he currently holds the World Boxing Council and World Boxing Organization titles.

Instead of retirement, Hopkins feels energized and expects to prolong his Hall of Fame-bound career. Hopkins now has appealing fight options, including rematches with Calzaghe or Roy Jones Jr. Calzaghe and Jones will fight Nov. 8 in New York.

Before his 10-year run as middleweight champion, Hopkins lost a decision against Jones in 1993.

”I would fight Roy but I’d also go to England to fight Calzaghe,” Hopkins said. “I’d fight either one of those guys, but fighting Roy would be huge and that’s the one that people would want to see.”

ANDRADE BOUT SET

Demetrius Andrade will be the first member of the 2008 U.S. Olympic boxing team to fight professionally Thursday night in Spokane, Wash.

Andrade will make his debut against Patrick Cape in a scheduled four-round junior-middleweight fight.
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Is reality is a little too ‘Real World’ for MTV executive?

In the Miami Herald’s Business Monday, they published an interview with an MTV executive conducted by Douglas Hanks. Below an excerpt:

Q: Is Cuba the only country where you don’t have a channel?
A: We talked about it. We were prevented. I talked with [Fidel] Castro directly.

I met him in my AIDS work because he hosted a lot of Caribbean countries at an AIDS conference several years ago. [Cuba] turned the whole epidemic around. They had no deaths one year from AIDS.

(Roedy explained Castro cited two priorities in their conversations: medical care and literacy.)

In China they have a show called MTV English. Where we actually stop the lyrics midstream and go back and put English on the screen. He loved the idea in Cuba because he wanted, a couple years ago, for everyone to speak English.

We didn’t [pursue] it any further . . . There’s been some talk over the years of music events. But no MTV Cuba.

No deaths attributable to such a deadly disease? Leaving aside the fact that the year was not specified, that is not believable. Where is the interviewer’s follow-up or why the lack of editing on that answer? If you are going to print an MTV executive’s thoughts about AIDS in Cuba, go the logical next step and follow up. If it’s meant to be a puff piece with some corporate mouth-piece, then please avoid serious topics and stick to celebrating MTV’s success in ridding an entire generation of superfluous and fatty brain cells.

Since I clearly have the space, let’s address that next question here. First, let’s assume that the rate of AIDS in Cuba is much lower than other Caribbean countries. The normal–or unsycophantic–question would be to ask why. Is Cuba claiming to have lower rates of homosexuality among its people than other Caribbean nations? I would assume no. How does their treatment of AIDS differ different from other countries? Better medicine? No, the absence of even basic medicine–like aspirin, let alone expensive AIDS medication–has long been a problem for the dictatorship.

It is much more likely that their success in battling AIDS is tied to the absence of freedom in Cuba. Turns out that when you do not have to worry about human rights, the odds of ‘success’ for government ‘campaigns’ dramatically improve. Let Reinaldo Arenas describe it:

The system of parameterization was imposed; that is, every gay writer, every gay artist, every gay dramatist, received a telegram telling him that his behavior did not fall within the political and moral parameters necessary for his job, and that he was therefore either terminated or offered another job in the forced-labor camps… the island became a maximum-security jail, where everybody, according to Castro, was happy to stay.

Perhaps that reality is a little too ‘real world’ for Mr. Roedy, whose pretentiousness is apparently only exceeded by his gullibility. Please see this link from Babalu, which describes a recently canceled gay parade. Mr. Arenas was the subject of the film, Before Night Falls.

[Post-post – Oct 22] – I sent a letter to the Herald based on this post and they printed the following:

AIDS in Cuba

In the Oct. 20 Business Monday article Top MTV exec in tune with Miami, Bill Roedy says that Cuba “had no deaths one year from AIDS.”

There were no deaths attributable to this deadly disease? Leaving aside the fact that the year was not specified, that is not believable. Where was the follow-up question from the reporter or an editor? If the story was meant to be a puff piece, then it should have avoided serious topics and stuck to celebrating MTV’s success in ridding many a child of superfluous brain cells.

Whatever success Cuba may have experienced in treating AIDS is likely attributable to its willingness to quarantine homosexuals. Roedy’s pretentiousness apparently is exceeded only by his gullibility.

JORGE COSTALES, Miami

Just another day on the Cuba dilettantes watch.

All articles referenced are copied in full at end of post.

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Top MTV exec in tune with Miami

Miami Herald – Posted on Mon, Oct. 20, 2008

BY DOUGLAS HANKS

Bill Roedy can tell you about pop videos in Bombay, comedy news spoofs in Holland and educational television in Beijing. He’s in charge of all of them.

The head of MTV Networks International has fought on the front lines of the music network’s spread around the world, an expansion driven by a ”localization” strategy Roedy championed in the 1980s. That approach calls for building each foreign MTV operation from the ground up, with local personalities hosting a stream of programs designed for that country’s audience.

”It shrunk the margins initially,” Roedy said during an interview at his summertime residence in South Beach. “But the basic driving force has been local product, local sensitivity, local attitude. . . . There’s no one out there who does it to the magnitude [we do] because we’ve been doing it for so long.”

Roedy, 59, lives in London, but he’s from Miami. The North Miami High graduate got his start in the media as a copy boy at The Miami Herald (in those times of sprawling newspaper staffs, Roedy used to go on coffee runs for 56 people). The West Point graduate (and holder of a Harvard MBA) earned the Bronze Star in Vietnam and went on to command NATO missile bases in Italy.

After the Army, Roedy took a job at the fledging Home Box Office network, eventually rising to a vice president. He joined MTV in the 1980s as CEO of the network’s European division, then became its chairman five years later.

Now he’s socializing with Bono and mingling with world leaders through MTV’s ”Staying Alive” campaign aimed at HIV prevention. He’s also served as the chairman of the United Nation’s Global Media AIDS Initiative. (Among the heads of state he’s chatted with: Fidel Castro.)

The father of four (ages 5 to 12) sat down with Business Monday in the lobby of the South Beach condo he owns with his wife, Alex. It overlooks the ocean and is about a 10-minute walk from MTV’s Lincoln Road office.

The history of that location reflects Miami’s diminished relationship with MTV. Once the creative hub for the network’s Latin American unit, it now only holds the corporate side of the division. Creative moved to Argentina last year.

And while MTV held back-to-back awards shows in 2004 and 2005, the spectacle hasn’t returned after a string of hurricane complications for those late-summer events.

But Roedy says Miami’s gravitational pull on the music industry doesn’t seem to be waning. Like the music video, he says, Miami has a knack for retaining star power.

Q: What is the state of the music video?

A: It’s not like it was in the ’80s, or even the ’90s.

Over the years, the MTV channel has evolved into a much bigger thing than just music videos, although it’s in our name so we still feel that in many ways it’s the heart and soul of what we do.

When you combine [MTV and VH-1] with our digital channels, we play more music videos than we have at any time in our history, ironically. The music video is still alive and well. We tend to get better ratings with the long-form youth programming. But we still generate a lot of good ratings from music videos.

You have so many different sources of music videos now. While you may not see a lot of music videos produced in Miami, you see it produced in India — big time — and China, never more than now. If you look at it globally, there’s probably more music videos being produced now than there ever was.

Q: Is Miami’s role as a creative hub for Latin America being diluted? You guys have moved your creative operations for the region out of Miami.

A: I don’t think it diminishes Miami. For us, we’ve always been driven by the premise of staying as close as possible to our audience. In that context, Miami was a bit of an anomaly for us. But it worked because of the whole thing we’re talking about: the Latin connection. . . . I wouldn’t worry about [MTV’s move] too much. All of us will continue to do a lot of ‘creative’ in Miami.

It’s a very friendly environment. And the weather is just among all the great benefits. Plus you have all the [production] infrastructure.

Q: When you talk about the social ills MTV focuses on — violence, irresponsible sexual behavior, AIDS — do you see a conflict between the programs that air on MTV, which lots of times do glorify violence and sex?

A: That’s a fair question. We deal with it all the time, obviously.

The best answer on that is our success has been to establish an audience that we have credibility with and who trust us for straight talk.

And when you have that connection with an audience, then you have a great opportunity to deliver the message. Because you have the trust.

So yeah, we do push the envelope, no question. We try very hard not to have a point of view.

We don’t preach. We can’t — they’ll turn us off in a second. We try to give them the straight information.

Q: Is Cuba the only country where you don’t have a channel?

A: We talked about it. We were prevented. I talked with [Fidel] Castro directly.

I met him in my AIDS work because he hosted a lot of Caribbean countries at an AIDS conference several years ago. [Cuba] turned the whole epidemic around. They had no deaths one year from AIDS.

(Roedy explained Castro cited two priorities in their conversations: medical care and literacy.)

In China they have a show called MTV English. Where we actually stop the lyrics midstream and go back and put English on the screen. He loved the idea in Cuba because he wanted, a couple years ago, for everyone to speak English.

We didn’t [pursue] it any further . . . There’s been some talk over the years of music events. But no MTV Cuba.

Q: Is there any international market where the MTV format has not worked, where it hasn’t caught on?

A: Uh . . . no.
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Posted in 2TG Favorites, Cuba | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Faith informing our politics

As the elections approach, today’s Gospel is a reminder of that our politics and our faith have a division.

Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 22,15-21.

Then the Pharisees went off and plotted how they might entrap him in speech. They sent their disciples to him, with the Herodians, saying, “Teacher, we know that you are a truthful man and that you teach the way of God in accordance with the truth. And you are not concerned with anyone’s opinion, for you do not regard a person’s status. Tell us, then, what is your opinion: Is it lawful to pay the census tax to Caesar or not?” Knowing their malice, Jesus said, “Why are you testing me, you hypocrites? Show me the coin that pays the census tax.” Then they handed him the Roman coin. He said to them, “Whose image is this and whose inscription?” They replied, “Caesar’s.” At that he said to them, “Then repay to Caesar what belongs to Caesar and to God what belongs to God.”

With that reading in mind, a local Catholic priest, Rev. Vallee, provides some perspective. He weighs in on how Catholics should avoid putting God in any political party:

We as Catholics must inform ourselves and vote our consciences. We must not do what Jerry Farwell and the Moral Majority did which is to turn our religion into a partisan political party. Such a tactic conflates the place of God and Caesar in society. I am not going tell you who to vote for; don’t let anyone else tell you who to vote for. Here is the point. This pulpit is here that we might preach the Gospel of Our Lord Jesus Christ, not the agenda of Obama or the platform of McCain. To use religion in such a cynical way renders everything unto Caesar and leaves nothing for God. That is a decision you must make in good conscience, in your own mind and heart. And remember these issues are not simple. It is not a matter of souls or no souls. It is usually more like ‘little souls.’ We need to turn down the vicious rhetoric and turn up the wisdom and charity. Which side is right? They are both wrong when they fight like bratty children calling one another nasty names.

I also addressed my confusion over how to properly address a priest.

All homilies referenced are copied in full at end of post.

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Fr Vallee’s 10/19/08 Homily

I. Caesar, elections
As we approach the November elections, Jesus tells us to render unto Caesar what is Caesar’s and unto God what is God’s, let me attempt to preach the Gospel without making either the democrats or the republicans out there too angry. The best way to do that, I guess is with a story. It is a true story of St. Teresa of Avila. By the end of her life, she was nearly universally acclaimed as a saint.

II. Story of missionary
Anyhow, it came to pass that a missionary had been traveling in Africa. He was a kindly man but not the sharpest knife in the drawer. He had seen so many strange and wondrous things that, one day, while walking on the beach, he saw a flock of very large birds, speaking what he took to be a strange and exotic language. The dim young priest, presuming them to be a tribe of people, with great zeal and little intelligence, baptized the entire flock of birds. When he got back to Rome, they figured out what happened and a debate among the learned theologians broke out. The Franciscans, with their well known love for animals, argued that the birds were infused with souls capable of being saved by virtue of the grace of baptism. The Dominicans, with their well known love of precision, argued that whatever is received is received according to the capacity of the receiver. Hence, the birds did not need and could not receive salvation.

III. Teresa’s decision
Things finally got so out of hand that a fist-fight broke out on the streets of Rome between a Franciscan and a Dominican theologian. Finally the pope intervened. He got both sides to agree that they would submit themselves to the binding arbitration of Teresa of Avila. Whatever she decided, they would accept and no more fighting. They gave Teresa hundreds of pages they had written and she took a few weeks to read it all. When she had finished the Dominicans and Franciscans came back to her and asked: “Well, which is it? Do they have souls or not? Teresa sighed a weary sigh and said: “Well, alright but little souls.�

IV. The current debates
I don’t know about you but, as for me, political discourse in this country has descended into just such a war of little boys and little girls. So much of what we hear is absolute and fanatical. Let us be very clear. Neither the democrats nor the republicans are on the side of the angels. Even, if I may be so bold, this whole economic mess is the not fault of only one party. Both democrats and republicans are plenty guilty. Where is the nuance and where is the wisdom? Let us be even more clear. There is no one Catholic party in this country. This is because both sides have very serious moral issues they fall on the wrong side of: for the democrats, abortion and for the republicans, just war. Both abortion and unjust war are intrinsically disordered. Don’t take my word for it; they both have been explicitly and repeated condemned by the last two popes, John Paul II and Benedict XVI.

V. Conscience
We as Catholics must inform ourselves and vote our consciences. We must not do what Jerry Farwell and the Moral Majority did which is to turn our religion into a partisan political party. Such a tactic conflates the place of God and Caesar in society. I am not going tell you who to vote for; don’t let anyone else tell you who to vote for. Here is the point. This pulpit is here that we might preach the Gospel of Our Lord Jesus Christ, not the agenda of Obama or the platform of McCain. To use religion in such a cynical way renders everything unto Caesar and leaves nothing for God. That is a decision you must make in good conscience, in your own mind and heart. And remember these issues are not simple. It is not a matter of souls or no souls. It is usually more like ‘little souls.’ We need to turn down the vicious rhetoric and turn up the wisdom and charity. Which side is right? They are both wrong when they fight like bratty children calling one another nasty names.
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Roberto Acevedo

Miami Herald boxing article by Santos Perez on Roberto Acevedo.
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Puerto Rico’s Acevedo wins his fourth consecutive fight

Posted on Sat, Oct. 18, 2008

BY SANTOS A. PEREZ

Motivated by new management and encouragement from an older brother who is a former Olympic medalist, Roberto Acevedo increased his victory streak Friday night.

Acevedo, of Puerto Rico, won his fourth consecutive fight with a majority decision over Miami resident Lenin Arroyo in an undercard bout at Miccosukee Resort and Gaming.

”Hopefully this victory opens the door for bigger fights,” Acevedo said. “I am very satisfied with how my career is going on right now.”

Acevedo, whose brother, Anibal, won a silver medal in the 1992 Olympics, used effective boxing skills throughout the six-round junior-welterweight bout against a charging Lenin Arroyo.

Judges Mark Streisand and John Ruppert scored the bout 59-57 for Acevedo, and Rocky Young scored it 57-57.

”I was told that he was going to come right at me and initiate the action,” Acevedo said. “But I was able to trade as well as box with him.”

Acevedo (9-4-3) controlled the pace early, connecting with combinations to the head. Late in the first round, Acevedo scored with short combinations that temporarily staggered Arroyo.

Arroyo (20-8-1) tried to pressure Acevedo into the ropes but Acevedo slipped most of Arroyo’s shots by moving in angles.

In the fifth, Arroyo finally found shorter punching range and pinned Acevedo on the ropes, where he connected with combinations to the body and a right uppercut.

But Acevedo still found openings in the middle of the ring and forced Arroyo to briefly retreat with rights and lefts to the head.

Arroyo again pursued Acevedo in the final round, keeping him on the ropes with combinations to the body.

The card’s main event, between Mexico’s Jorge Lacierva and Colombia’s Feider Viloria for a regional super-bantamweight title, was fought late Friday.

In another undercard bout, Miami resident Sergio Garcia won a unanimous decision against Carlos Pena.

Garcia turned the tight four-round welterweight bout in his favor after staggering Pena with a right to the head. Pena briefly clinched but Garcia kept the pressure with rights and lefts to the head.

A six-round lightweight bout between Homestead resident Orlando Gonzalez and Pittsburgh’s Daniel Mitchell was canceled after Mitchell complained of back spasms hours before the bout.

In other bouts: featherweight Daniel Lorezano scored a technical knockout over Jose Martinez at 2:07 of the second round; lightweight Ricardo Reyes won by a unanimous decision over Jesus Garcia; junior welterweights Amaury Torres and Michael Mendez fought to a draw; junior welterweights Devaris Crayton and Jones Petit-Homes fought to a draw.
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Tom Wolfe in Miami, Cooooññño

Tom Wolfe! The other day it hit me, one of the great American writers ever is in the process of researching and writing a book, Back to Blood, based in our town. The book’s topic is immigration and it’s focus will be on our Cuban-American community and how it has evolved in and with Miami. Mr. Wolfe sees the experience of the Cuban exodus into the Miami community as a great ‘only in America’ success story.

If I had to try to describe what it’s been like to read him, I would say that he is a written word version of a Google Earth aerial map. A consistently unique, funny and insightful way to look at various subjects and people. As a young conservative drawn initially to William F Buckley, it would be hard to exaggerate the pleasure in learning that there was another intellectual out there who, if not a conservative politically, was unfazed by the prevailing liberal orthodoxy. He came, he saw and he skewered unmercifully and hilariously. Man was he fun to discover.

Back before I became a parent, I greatly enjoyed the Great Books Discussion Group which met, and still does, on a biweekly basis at the Coral Gables Library. I hope to recruit a similar type group to take advantage of this unique opportunity to either acquaint or reacquaint ourselves with Mr. Wolfe’s work prior to the publication of his Miami-based book, scheduled for the Fall of 2009. So please pass this idea along to anyone who might be interested.

For an example of his work, see the excerpt below from his Forbes 1996 article, ‘Sorry, But Your Soul Just Died’ — the focus of which was neuroscience:

Which brings us to the second most famous statement in all of modern philosophy: Nietzsche’s “God is dead.” The year was 1882. (The book was Die Fröhliche Wissenschaft [The Gay Science].) Nietzsche said this was not a declaration of atheism, although he was in fact an atheist, but simply the news of an event. He called the death of God a “tremendous event,” the greatest event of modern history. The news was that educated people no longer believed in God, as a result of the rise of rationalism and scientific thought, including Darwinism, over the preceding 250 years. But before you atheists run up your flags of triumph, he said, think of the implications. “The story I have to tell,” wrote Nietzsche, “is the history of the next two centuries.” He predicted (in Ecce Homo) that the twentieth century would be a century of “wars such as have never happened on earth,” wars catastrophic beyond all imagining. And why? Because human beings would no longer have a god to turn to, to absolve them of their guilt; but they would still be racked by guilt, since guilt is an impulse instilled in children when they are very young, before the age of reason. As a result, people would loathe not only one another but themselves. The blind and reassuring faith they formerly poured into their belief in God, said Nietzsche, they would now pour into a belief in barbaric nationalistic brotherhoods: “If the doctrines…of the lack of any cardinal distinction between man and animal, doctrines I consider true but deadly”–he says in an allusion to Darwinism in Untimely Meditations –“are hurled into the people for another generation…then nobody should be surprised when…brotherhoods with the aim of the robbery and exploitation of the non-brothers…will appear in the arena of the future.”

Nietzsche’s view of guilt, incidentally, is also that of neuro-scientists a century later. They regard guilt as one of those tendencies imprinted in the brain at birth. In some people the genetic work is not complete, and they engage in criminal behavior without a twinge of remorse–thereby intriguing criminologists, who then want to create Violence Initiatives and hold conferences on the subject.

Nietzsche said that mankind would limp on through the twentieth century “on the mere pittance” of the old decaying God-based moral codes. But then, in the twenty-first, would come a period more dreadful than the great wars, a time of “the total eclipse of all values” (in The Will to Power ). This would also be a frantic period of “revaluation,” in which people would try to find new systems of values to replace the osteoporotic skeletons of the old. But you will fail, he warned, because you cannot believe in moral codes without simultaneously believing in a god who points at you with his fearsome forefinger and says “Thou shalt” or “Thou shalt not.”

Why should we bother ourselves with a dire prediction that seems so far-fetched as “the total eclipse of all values”? Because of man’s track record, I should think. After all, in Europe, in the peaceful decade of the 1880s, it must have seemed even more far-fetched to predict the world wars of the twentieth century and the barbaric brotherhoods of Nazism and Communism. Ecce vates! Ecce vates! Behold the prophet! How much more proof can one demand of a man’s powers of prediction?

See the video below or go the actual link of Mr. Wolfe discussing his Miami based book.

Another link for the Soul Just Died article, in Orthodoxy Today.

All articles referenced are copied in full at end of post.

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Sorry, But Your Soul Just Died / Tom Wolfe / Forbes 1996

From neuroscience to Nietzsche. A sobering look at how man may perceive himself in the future, particularly as ideas about genetic predeterminism takes the place of dying Darwinism.

Being a bit behind the curve, I had only just heard of the digital revolution last February when Louis Rossetto, cofounder of Wired magazine, wearing a shirt with no collar and his hair as long as Felix Mendelssohn’s, looking every inch the young California visionary, gave a speech before the Cato Institute announcing the dawn of the twenty-first century’s digital civilization. As his text, he chose the maverick Jesuit scientist and philosopher Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, who fifty years ago prophesied that radio, television, and computers would create a “noösphere,” an electronic membrane covering the earth and wiring all humanity together in a single nervous system. Geographic locations, national boundaries, the old notions of markets and political processes–all would become irrelevant. With the Internet spreading over the globe at an astonishing pace, said Rossetto, that marvelous modem-driven moment is almost at hand.

Could be. But something tells me that within ten years, by 2006, the entire digital universe is going to seem like pretty mundane stuff compared to a new technology that right now is but a mere glow radiating from a tiny number of American and Cuban (yes, Cuban) hospitals and laboratories. It is called brain imaging, and anyone who cares to get up early and catch a truly blinding twenty-first-century dawn will want to keep an eye on it.

Brain imaging refers to techniques for watching the human brain as it functions, in real time. The most advanced forms currently are three-dimensional electroencephalography using mathematical models; the more familiar PET scan (positron-emission tomography); the new fMRI (functional magnetic resonance imaging), which shows brain blood-flow patterns, and MRS (magnetic resonance spectroscopy), which measures biochemical changes in the brain; and the even newer PET reporter gene/PET reporter probe, which is, in fact, so new that it still has that length of heavy lumber for a name. Used so far only in animals and a few desperately sick children, the PET reporter gene/PET reporter probe pinpoints and follows the activity of specific genes. On a scanner screen you can actually see the genes light up inside the brain.

By 1996 standards, these are sophisticated devices. Ten years from now, however, they may seem primitive compared to the stunning new windows into the brain that will have been developed.

Brain imaging was invented for medical diagnosis. But its far greater importance is that it may very well confirm, in ways too precise to be disputed, certain theories about “the mind,” “the self,” “the soul,” and “free will” that are already devoutly believed in by scholars in what is now the hottest field in the academic world, neuroscience. Granted, all those skeptical quotation marks are enough to put anybody on the qui vive right away, but Ultimate Skepticism is part of the brilliance of the dawn I have promised.

Neuroscience, the science of the brain and the central nervous system, is on the threshold of a unified theory that will have an impact as powerful as that of Darwinism a hundred years ago. Already there is a new Darwin, or perhaps I should say an updated Darwin, since no one ever believed more religiously in Darwin I than he does. His name is Edward O. Wilson. He teaches zoology at Harvard, and he is the author of two books of extraordinary influence, The Insect Societies and Sociobiology: The New Synthesis. Not “A” new synthesis but “The” new synthesis; in terms of his stature in neuroscience, it is not a mere boast.

Wilson has created and named the new field of sociobiology, and he has compressed its underlying premise into a single sentence. Every human brain, he says, is born not as a blank tablet (a tabula rasa) waiting to be filled in by experience but as “an exposed negative waiting to be slipped into developer fluid.” You can develop the negative well or you can develop it poorly, but either way you are going to get precious little that is not already imprinted on the film. The print is the individual’s genetic history, over thousands of years of evolution, and there is not much anybody can do about it. Furthermore, says Wilson, genetics determine not only things such as temperament, role preferences, emotional responses, and levels of aggression, but also many of our most revered moral choices, which are not choices at all in any free-will sense but tendencies imprinted in the hypothalamus and limbic regions of the brain, a concept expanded upon in 1993 in a much-talked-about book, The Moral Sense , by James Q. Wilson (no kin to Edward O.).

The neuroscientific view of life

This, the neuroscientific view of life, has become the strategic high ground in the academic world, and the battle for it has already spread well beyond the scientific disciplines and, for that matter, out into the general public. Both liberals and conservatives without a scientific bone in their bodies are busy trying to seize the terrain. The gay rights movement, for example, has fastened onto a study published in July of 1993 by the highly respected Dean Hamer of the National Institutes of Health, announcing the discovery of “the gay gene.” Obviously, if homosexuality is a genetically determined trait, like left-handedness or hazel eyes, then laws and sanctions against it are attempts to legislate against Nature. Conservatives, meantime, have fastened upon studies indicating that men’s and women’s brains are wired so differently, thanks to the long haul of evolution, that feminist attempts to open up traditionally male roles to women are the same thing: a doomed violation of Nature.

Wilson himself has wound up in deep water on this score; or cold water, if one need edit. In his personal life Wilson is a conventional liberal, PC, as the saying goes–he is , after all, a member of the Harvard faculty–concerned about environmental issues and all the usual things. But he has said that “forcing similar role identities” on both men and women “flies in the face of thousands of years in which mammals demonstrated a strong tendency for sexual division of labor. Since this division of labor is persistent from hunter-gatherer through agricultural and industrial societies, it suggests a genetic origin. We do not know when this trait evolved in human evolution or how resistant it is to the continuing and justified pressures for human rights.”

“Resistant” was Darwin II, the neuroscientist, speaking. “Justified” was the PC Harvard liberal. He was not PC or liberal enough. Feminist protesters invaded a conference where Wilson was appearing, dumped a pitcher of ice water, cubes and all, over his head, and began chanting, “You’re all wet! You’re all wet!” The most prominent feminist in America, Gloria Steinem, went on television and, in an interview with John Stossel of ABC, insisted that studies of genetic differences between male and female nervous systems should cease forthwith.

But that turned out to be mild stuff in the current political panic over neuroscience. In February of 1992, Frederick K. Goodwin, a renowned psychiatrist, head of the federal Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration, and a certified yokel in the field of public relations, made the mistake of describing, at a public meeting in Washington, the National Institute of Mental Health’s ten-year-old Violence Initiative. This was an experimental program whose hypothesis was that, as among monkeys in the jungle–Goodwin was noted for his monkey studies–much of the criminal mayhem in the United States was caused by a relatively few young males who were genetically predisposed to it; who were hardwired for violent crime, in short. Out in the jungle, among mankind’s closest animal relatives, the chimpanzees, it seemed that a handful of genetically twisted young males were the ones who committed practically all of the wanton murders of other males and the physical abuse of females. What if the same were true among human beings? What if, in any given community, it turned out to be a handful of young males with toxic DNA who were pushing statistics for violent crime up to such high levels? The Violence Initiative envisioned identifying these individuals in childhood, somehow, some way, someday, and treating them therapeutically with drugs. The notion that crime-ridden urban America was a “jungle,” said Goodwin, was perhaps more than just a tired old metaphor.

That did it. That may have been the stupidest single word uttered by an American public official in the year 1992. The outcry was immediate. Senator Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts and Representative John Dingell of Michigan (who, it became obvious later, suffered from hydrophobia when it came to science projects) not only condemned Goodwin’s remarks as racist but also delivered their scientific verdict: Research among primates “is a preposterous basis” for analyzing anything as complex as “the crime and violence that plagues our country today.” (This came as surprising news to NASA scientists who had first trained and sent a chimpanzee called Ham up on top of a Redstone rocket into suborbital space flight and then trained and sent another one, called Enos, which is Greek for “man,” up on an Atlas rocket and around the earth in orbital space flight and had thereby accurately and completely predicted the physical, psychological, and task-motor responses of the human astronauts, Alan Shepard and John Glenn, who repeated the chimpanzees’ flights and tasks months later.) The Violence Initiative was compared to Nazi eugenic proposals for the extermination of undesirables. Dingell’s Michigan colleague, Representative John Conyers, then chairman of the Government Operations Committee and senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus, demanded Goodwin’s resignation–and got it two days later, whereupon the government, with the Department of Health and Human Services now doing the talking, denied that the Violence Initiative had ever existed. It disappeared down the memory hole, to use Orwell’s term.

A conference of criminologists and other academics interested in the neuroscientific studies done so far for the Violence Initiative–a conference underwritten in part by a grant from the National Institutes of Health–had been scheduled for May of 1993 at the University of Maryland. Down went the conference, too; the NIH drowned it like a kitten. Last year, a University of Maryland legal scholar named David Wasserman tried to reassemble the troops on the QT, as it were, in a hall all but hidden from human purview in a hamlet called Queenstown in the foggy, boggy boondocks of Queen Annes County on Maryland’s Eastern Shore. The NIH, proving it was a hard learner, quietly provided $133,000 for the event but only after Wasserman promised to fireproof the proceedings by also inviting scholars who rejected the notion of a possible genetic genesis of crime and scheduling a cold-shower session dwelling on the evils of the eugenics movement of the early twentieth century. No use, boys! An army of protesters found the poor cringing devils anyway and stormed into the auditorium chanting, “Maryland conference, you can’t hide–we know you’re pushing genocide!” It took two hours for them to get bored enough to leave, and the conference ended in a complete muddle with the specially recruited fireproofing PC faction issuing a statement that said: “Scientists as well as historians and sociologists must not allow themselves to provide academic respectability for racist pseudoscience.” Today, at the NIH, the term Violence Initiative is a synonym for taboo . The present moment resembles that moment in the Middle Ages when the Catholic Church forbade the dissection of human bodies, for fear that what was discovered inside might cast doubt on the Christian doctrine that God created man in his own image.

Even more radio-active is the matter of intelligence, as measured by IQ tests. Privately–not many care to speak out–the vast majority of neuroscientists believe the genetic component of an individual’s intelligence is remarkably high. Your intelligence can be improved upon, by skilled and devoted mentors, or it can be held back by a poor upbringing–i.e., the negative can be well developed or poorly developed–but your genes are what really make the difference. The recent ruckus over Charles Murray and Richard Herrnstein’s The Bell Curve is probably just the beginning of the bitterness the subject is going to create.

Not long ago, according to two neuroscientists I interviewed, a firm called Neurometrics sought out investors and tried to market an amazing but simple invention known as the IQ Cap. The idea was to provide a way of testing intelligence that would be free of “cultural bias,” one that would not force anyone to deal with words or concepts that might be familiar to people from one culture but not to people from another. The IQ Cap recorded only brain waves; and a computer, not a potentially biased human test-giver, analyzed the results. It was based on the work of neuroscientists such as E. Roy John 1 , who is now one of the major pioneers of electroencephalographic brain imaging; Duilio Giannitrapani, author of The Electrophysiology of Intellectual Functions ; and David Robinson, author of The Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale and Personality Assessment: Toward a Biologically Based Theory of Intelligence and Cognition and many other monographs famous among neuroscientists. I spoke to one researcher who had devised an IQ Cap himself by replicating an experiment described by Giannitrapani in The Electrophysiology of Intellectual Functions. It was not a complicated process. You attached sixteen electrodes to the scalp of the person you wanted to test. You had to muss up his hair a little, but you didn’t have to cut it, much less shave it. Then you had him stare at a marker on a blank wall. This particular researcher used a raspberry- red thumbtack. Then you pushed a toggle switch. In sixteen seconds the Cap’s computer box gave you an accurate prediction (within one-half of a standard deviation) of what the subject would score on all eleven subtests of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale or, in the case of children, the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children–all from sixteen seconds’ worth of brain waves. There was nothing culturally biased about the test whatsoever. What could be cultural about staring at a thumbtack on a wall? The savings in time and money were breathtaking. The conventional IQ test took two hours to complete; and the overhead, in terms of paying test-givers, test-scorers, test-preparers, and the rent, was $100 an hour at the very least. The IQ Cap required about fifteen minutes and sixteen seconds–it took about fifteen minutes to put the electrodes on the scalp–and about a tenth of a penny’s worth of electricity. Neurometrics’s investors were rubbing their hands and licking their chops. They were about to make a killing.

In fact– nobody wanted their damnable IQ Cap!

It wasn’t simply that no one believed you could derive IQ scores from brainwaves–it was that nobody wanted to believe it could be done. Nobody wanted to believe that human brainpower is… that hardwired . Nobody wanted to learn in a flash that… the genetic fix is in . Nobody wanted to learn that he was… a hardwired genetic mediocrity …and that the best he could hope for in this Trough of Mortal Error was to live out his mediocre life as a stress-free dim bulb. Barry Sterman of UCLA, chief scientist for a firm called Cognitive Neurometrics, who has devised his own brain-wave technology for market research and focus groups, regards brain-wave IQ testing as possible–but in the current atmosphere you “wouldn’t have a Chinaman’s chance of getting a grant” to develop it.

Science is a court from which there is no appeal

Here we begin to sense the chill that emanates from the hottest field in the academic world. The unspoken and largely unconscious premise of the wrangling over neuroscience’s strategic high ground is: We now live in an age in which science is a court from which there is no appeal. And the issue this time around, at the end of the twentieth century, is not the evolution of the species, which can seem a remote business, but the nature of our own precious inner selves.

The elders of the field, such as Wilson, are well aware of all this and are cautious, or cautious compared to the new generation. Wilson still holds out the possibility–I think he doubts it, but he still holds out the possibility–that at some point in evolutionary history, culture began to influence the development of the human brain in ways that cannot be explained by strict Darwinian theory. But the new generation of neuroscientists are not cautious for a second. In private conversations, the bull sessions, as it were, that create the mental atmosphere of any hot new science–and I love talking to these people–they express an uncompromising determinism.

They start with the most famous statement in all of modern philosophy, Descartes’s “Cogito ergo sum,” “I think, therefore I am,” which they regard as the essence of “dualism,” the old-fashioned notion that the mind is something distinct from its mechanism, the brain and the body. (I will get to the second most famous statement in a moment.) This is also known as the “ghost in the machine” fallacy, the quaint belief that there is a ghostly “self” somewhere inside the brain that interprets and directs its operations. Neuroscientists involved in three-dimensional electroencephalography will tell you that there is not even any one place in the brain where consciousness or self-consciousness ( Cogito ergo sum ) is located. This is merely an illusion created by a medley of neurological systems acting in concert. The young generation takes this yet one step further. Since consciousness and thought are entirely physical products of your brain and nervous system–and since your brain arrived fully imprinted at birth–what makes you think you have free will? Where is it going to come from? What “ghost,” what “mind,” what “self,” what “soul,” what anything that will not be immediately grabbed by those scornful quotation marks, is going to bubble up your brain stem to give it to you? I have heard neuroscientists theorize that, given computers of sufficient power and sophistication, it would be possible to predict the course of any human being’s life moment by moment, including the fact that the poor devil was about to shake his head over the very idea. I doubt that any Calvinist of the sixteenth century ever believed so completely in predestination as these, the hottest and most intensely rational young scientists in the United States at the end of the twentieth.

Since the late 1970s, in the Age of Wilson, college students have been heading into neuroscience in job lots. The Society for Neuroscience was founded in 1970 with 1,100 members. Today, one generation later, its membership exceeds 26,000. The Society’s latest convention, in San Diego, drew 23,052 souls, making it one of the biggest professional conventions in the country. In the venerable field of academic philosophy, young faculty members are jumping ship in embarrassing numbers and shifting into neuroscience. They are heading for the laboratories. Why wrestle with Kant’s God, Freedom, and Immortality when it is only a matter of time before neuroscience, probably through brain imaging, reveals the actual physical mechanism that sends these mental constructs, these illusions, synapsing up into the Broca’s and Wernicke’s areas of the brain?

Which brings us to the second most famous statement in all of modern philosophy: Nietzsche’s “God is dead.” The year was 1882. (The book was Die Fröhliche Wissenschaft [ The Gay Science ].) Nietzsche said this was not a declaration of atheism, although he was in fact an atheist, but simply the news of an event. He called the death of God a “tremendous event,” the greatest event of modern history. The news was that educated people no longer believed in God, as a result of the rise of rationalism and scientific thought, including Darwinism, over the preceding 250 years. But before you atheists run up your flags of triumph, he said, think of the implications. “The story I have to tell,” wrote Nietzsche, “is the history of the next two centuries.” He predicted (in Ecce Homo ) that the twentieth century would be a century of “wars such as have never happened on earth,” wars catastrophic beyond all imagining. And why? Because human beings would no longer have a god to turn to, to absolve them of their guilt; but they would still be racked by guilt, since guilt is an impulse instilled in children when they are very young, before the age of reason. As a result, people would loathe not only one another but themselves. The blind and reassuring faith they formerly poured into their belief in God, said Nietzsche, they would now pour into a belief in barbaric nationalistic brotherhoods: “If the doctrines…of the lack of any cardinal distinction between man and animal, doctrines I consider true but deadly”–he says in an allusion to Darwinism in Untimely Meditations –“are hurled into the people for another generation…then nobody should be surprised when…brotherhoods with the aim of the robbery and exploitation of the non-brothers…will appear in the arena of the future.”

Nietzsche’s view of guilt, incidentally, is also that of neuro-scientists a century later. They regard guilt as one of those tendencies imprinted in the brain at birth. In some people the genetic work is not complete, and they engage in criminal behavior without a twinge of remorse–thereby intriguing criminologists, who then want to create Violence Initiatives and hold conferences on the subject.

Nietzsche said that mankind would limp on through the twentieth century “on the mere pittance” of the old decaying God-based moral codes. But then, in the twenty-first, would come a period more dreadful than the great wars, a time of “the total eclipse of all values” (in The Will to Power ). This would also be a frantic period of “revaluation,” in which people would try to find new systems of values to replace the osteoporotic skeletons of the old. But you will fail, he warned, because you cannot believe in moral codes without simultaneously believing in a god who points at you with his fearsome forefinger and says “Thou shalt” or “Thou shalt not.”

Why should we bother ourselves with a dire prediction that seems so far-fetched as “the total eclipse of all values”? Because of man’s track record, I should think. After all, in Europe, in the peaceful decade of the 1880s, it must have seemed even more far-fetched to predict the world wars of the twentieth century and the barbaric brotherhoods of Nazism and Communism. Ecce vates! Ecce vates! Behold the prophet! How much more proof can one demand of a man’s powers of prediction?

A hundred years ago those who worried about the death of God could console one another with the fact that they still had their own bright selves and their own inviolable souls for moral ballast and the marvels of modern science to chart the way. But what if, as seems likely, the greatest marvel of modern science turns out to be brain imaging? And what if, ten years from now, brain imaging has proved, beyond any doubt, that not only Edward O. Wilson but also the young generation are, in fact, correct?

The elders, such as Wilson himself and Daniel C. Dennett, the author of Darwin’s Dangerous Idea: Evolution and the Meanings of Life , and Richard Dawkins, author of The Selfish Gene and The Blind Watchmaker , insist that there is nothing to fear from the truth, from the ultimate extension of Darwin’s dangerous idea. They present elegant arguments as to why neuroscience should in no way diminish the richness of life, the magic of art, or the righteousness of political causes, including, if one need edit, political correctness at Harvard or Tufts, where Dennett is Director of the Center for Cognitive Studies, or Oxford, where Dawkins is something called Professor of Public Understanding of Science. (Dennett and Dawkins, every bit as much as Wilson, are earnestly, feverishly, politically correct.) Despite their best efforts, however, neuroscience is not rippling out into the public on waves of scholarly reassurance. But rippling out it is, rapidly. The conclusion people out beyond the laboratory walls are drawing is: The fix is in! We’re all hardwired! That, and: Don’t blame me! I’m wired wrong!

From nurture to nature

This sudden switch from a belief in Nurture, in the form of social conditioning, to Nature, in the form of genetics and brain physiology, is the great intellectual event, to borrow Nietzsche’s term, of the late twentieth century. Up to now the two most influential ideas of the century have been Marxism and Freudianism. Both were founded upon the premise that human beings and their “ideals”–Marx and Freud knew about quotation marks, too–are completely molded by their environment. To Marx, the crucial environment was one’s social class; “ideals” and “faiths” were notions foisted by the upper orders upon the lower as instruments of social control. To Freud, the crucial environment was the Oedipal drama, the unconscious sexual plot that was played out in the family early in a child’s existence. The “ideals” and “faiths” you prize so much are merely the parlor furniture you feature for receiving your guests, said Freud; I will show you the cellar, the furnace, the pipes, the sexual steam that actually runs the house. By the mid-1950s even anti-Marxists and anti-Freudians had come to assume the centrality of class domination and Oedipally conditioned sexual drives. On top of this came Pavlov, with his “stimulus-response bonds,” and B. F. Skinner, with his “operant conditioning,” turning the supremacy of conditioning into something approaching a precise form of engineering.

So how did this brilliant intellectual fashion come to so screeching and ignominious an end?

The demise of Freudianism can be summed up in a single word: lithium. In 1949 an Australian psychiatrist, John Cade, gave five days of lithium therapy–for entirely the wrong reasons–to a fifty-one-year-old mental patient who was so manic-depressive, so hyperactive, unintelligible, and uncontrollable, he had been kept locked up in asylums for twenty years. By the sixth day, thanks to the lithium buildup in his blood, he was a normal human being. Three months later he was released and lived happily ever after in his own home. This was a man who had been locked up and subjected to two decades of Freudian logorrhea to no avail whatsoever. Over the next twenty years antidepressant and tranquilizing drugs completely replaced Freudian talk-talk as treatment for serious mental disturbances. By the mid-1980s, neuroscientists looked upon Freudian psychiatry as a quaint relic based largely upon superstition (such as dream analysis — dream analysis!), like phrenology or mesmerism. In fact, among neuroscientists, phrenology now has a higher reputation than Freudian psychiatry, since phrenology was in a certain crude way a precursor of electroencephalography. Freudian psychiatrists are now regarded as old crocks with sham medical degrees, as ears with wire hairs sprouting out of them that people with more money than sense can hire to talk into.

Marxism was finished off even more suddenly–in a single year, 1973–with the smuggling out of the Soviet Union and the publication in France of the first of the three volumes of Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s The Gulag Archipelago . Other writers, notably the British historian Robert Conquest, had already exposed the Soviet Union’s vast network of concentration camps, but their work was based largely on the testimony of refugees, and refugees were routinely discounted as biased and bitter observers. Solzhenitsyn, on the other hand, was a Soviet citizen, still living on Soviet soil, a zek himself for eleven years, zek being Russian slang for concentration camp prisoner. His credibility had been vouched for by none other than Nikita Khrushchev, who in 1962 had permitted the publication of Solzhenitsyn’s novella of the gulag, One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich , as a means of cutting down to size the daunting shadow of his predecessor Stalin. “Yes,” Khrushchev had said in effect, “what this man Solzhenitsyn has to say is true. Such were Stalin’s crimes.” Solzhenitsyn’s brief fictional description of the Soviet slave labor system was damaging enough. But The Gulag Archipelago , a two-thousand-page, densely detailed, nonfiction account of the Soviet Communist Party’s systematic extermination of its enemies, real and imagined, of its own countrymen, by the tens of millions through an enormous, methodical, bureaucratically controlled “human sewage disposal system,” as Solzhenitsyn called it– The Gulag Archipelago was devastating. After all, this was a century in which there was no longer any possible ideological detour around the concentration camp. Among European intellectuals, even French intellectuals, Marxism collapsed as a spiritual force immediately. Ironically, it survived longer in the United States before suffering a final, merciful coup de gr ce on November 9, 1989, with the breaching of the Berlin Wall, which signaled in an unmistakable fashion what a debacle the Soviets’ seventy-two-year field experiment in socialism had been. (Marxism still hangs on, barely, acrobatically, in American universities in a Mannerist form known as Deconstruction, a literary doctrine that depicts language itself as an insidious tool used by The Powers That Be to deceive the proles and peasants.)

Freudianism and Marxism–and with them, the entire belief in social conditioning–were demolished so swiftly, so suddenly, that neuroscience has surged in, as if into an intellectual vacuum. Nor do you have to be a scientist to detect the rush.

Anyone with a child in school knows the signs all too well. I have children in school, and I am intrigued by the faith parents now invest–the craze began about 1990–in psychologists who diagnose their children as suffering from a defect known as attention deficit disorder, or ADD. Of course, I have no way of knowing whether this “disorder” is an actual, physical, neurological condition or not, but neither does anybody else in this early stage of neuroscience. The symptoms of this supposed malady are always the same. The child, or, rather, the boy–forty-nine out of fifty cases are boys–fidgets around in school, slides off his chair, doesn’t pay attention, distracts his classmates during class, and performs poorly. In an earlier era he would have been pressured to pay attention, work harder, show some self-discipline. To parents caught up in the new intellectual climate of the 1990s, that approach seems cruel, because my little boy’s problem is… he’s wired wrong! The poor little tyke –the fix has been in since birth! Invariably the parents complain, “All he wants to do is sit in front of the television set and watch cartoons and play Sega Genesis.” For how long? “How long? For hours at a time.” Hours at a time; as even any young neuroscientist will tell you, that boy may have a problem, but it is not an attention deficit.

Nevertheless, all across America we have the spectacle of an entire generation of little boys, by the tens of thousands, being dosed up on ADD’s magic bullet of choice, Ritalin, the CIBA-Geneva Corporation’s brand name for the stimulant methylphenidate. I first encountered Ritalin in 1966 when I was in San Francisco doing research for a book on the psychedelic or hippie movement. A certain species of the genus hippie was known as the Speed Freak, and a certain strain of Speed Freak was known as the Ritalin Head. The Ritalin Heads loved Ritalin. You’d see them in the throes of absolute Ritalin raptures…Not a wiggle, not a peep…They would sit engrossed in anything at all…a manhole cover, their own palm wrinkles…indefinitely…through shoulda-been mealtime after mealtime…through raging insomnias…Pure methyl-phenidate nirvana…From 1990 to 1995, CIBA-Geneva’s sales of Ritalin rose 600 percent; and not because of the appetites of subsets of the species Speed Freak in San Francisco, either. It was because an entire generation of American boys, from the best private schools of the Northeast to the worst sludge-trap public schools of Los Angeles and San Diego, was now strung out on methylphenidate, diligently doled out to them every day by their connection, the school nurse. America is a wonderful country! I mean it! No honest writer would challenge that statement! The human comedy never runs out of material! It never lets you down!

Meantime, the notion of a self–a self who exercises self-discipline, postpones gratification, curbs the sexual appetite, stops short of aggression and criminal behavior–a self who can become more intelligent and lift itself to the very peaks of life by its own bootstraps through study, practice, perseverance, and refusal to give up in the face of great odds–this old-fashioned notion (what’s a boot strap, for God’s sake?) of success through enterprise and true grit is already slipping away, slipping away…slipping away…The peculiarly American faith in the power of the individual to transform himself from a helpless cypher into a giant among men, a faith that ran from Emerson (“Self-Reliance”) to Horatio Alger’s Luck and Pluck stories to Dale Carnegie’s How to Win Friends and Influence People to Norman Vincent Peale’s The Power of Positive Thinking to Og Mandino’s The Greatest Salesman in the World –that faith is now as moribund as the god for whom Nietzsche wrote an obituary in 1882. It lives on today only in the decrepit form of the “motivational talk,” as lecture agents refer to it, given by retired football stars such as Fran Tarkenton to audiences of businessmen, most of them woulda-been athletes (like the author of this article), about how life is like a football game. “It’s late in the fourth period and you’re down by thirteen points and the Cowboys got you hemmed in on your own one-yard line and it’s third and twenty-three. Whaddaya do?…”

Sorry, Fran, but it’s third and twenty-three and the genetic fix is in, and the new message is now being pumped out into the popular press and onto television at a stupefying rate. Who are the pumps? They are a new breed who call themselves “evolutionary psychologists.” You can be sure that twenty years ago the same people would have been calling themselves Freudian; but today they are genetic determinists, and the press has a voracious appetite for whatever they come up with.

The most popular study currently–it is still being featured on television news shows, months later–is David Lykken and Auke Tellegen’s study at the University of Minnesota of two thousand twins that shows, according to these two evolutionary psychologists, that an individual’s happiness is largely genetic. Some people are hardwired to be happy and some are not. Success (or failure) in matters of love, money, reputation, or power is transient stuff; you soon settle back down (or up) to the level of happiness you were born with genetically. Three months ago Fortune devoted a long takeout, elaborately illustrated, of a study by evolutionary psychologists at Britain’s University of Saint Andrews showing that you judge the facial beauty or handsomeness of people you meet not by any social standards of the age you live in but by criteria hardwired in your brain from the moment you were born. Or, to put it another way, beauty is not in the eye of the beholder but embedded in his genes. In fact, today, in the year 1996, barely three years before the end of the millennium, if your appetite for newspapers, magazines, and television is big enough, you will quickly get the impression that there is nothing in your life, including the fat content of your body, that is not genetically predetermined. If I may mention just a few things the evolutionary psychologists have illuminated for me over the past two months:

The male of the human species is genetically hardwired to be polygamous, i.e., unfaithful to his legal mate. Any magazine-reading male gets the picture soon enough. (Three million years of evolution made me do it!) Women lust after male celebrities, because they are genetically hardwired to sense that alpha males will take better care of their offspring. (I’m just a lifeguard in the gene pool, honey.) Teenage girls are genetically hardwired to be promiscuous and are as helpless to stop themselves as dogs in the park. (The school provides the condoms.) Most murders are the result of genetically hardwired compulsions. (Convicts can read, too, and they report to the prison psychiatrist: “Something came over me…and then the knife went in.” 2 )

Where does that leave self-control? Where, indeed, if people believe this ghostly self does not even exist, and brain imaging proves it, once and for all?

So far, neuroscientific theory is based largely on indirect evidence, from studies of animals or of how a normal brain changes when it is invaded (by accidents, disease, radical surgery, or experimental needles). Darwin II himself, Edward O. Wilson, has only limited direct knowledge of the human brain. He is a zoologist, not a neurologist, and his theories are extrapolations from the exhaustive work he has done in his specialty, the study of insects. The French surgeon Paul Broca discovered Broca’s area, one of the two speech centers of the left hemisphere of the brain, only after one of his patients suffered a stroke. Even the PET scan and the PET reporter gene/PET reporter probe are technically medical invasions, since they require the injection of chemicals or viruses into the body. But they offer glimpses of what the noninvasive imaging of the future will probably look like. A neuroradiologist can read a list of topics out loud to a person being given a PET scan, topics pertaining to sports, music, business, history, whatever, and when he finally hits one the person is interested in, a particular area of the cerebral cortex actually lights up on the screen. Eventually, as brain imaging is refined, the picture may become as clear and complete as those see-through exhibitions, at auto shows, of the inner workings of the internal combustion engine. At that point it may become obvious to everyone that all we are looking at is a piece of machinery, an analog chemical computer, that processes information from the environment. “All,” since you can look and look and you will not find any ghostly self inside, or any mind, or any soul.

Thereupon, in the year 2006 or 2026, some new Nietzsche will step forward to announce: “The self is dead”–except that being prone to the poetic, like Nietzsche I, he will probably say: “The soul is dead.” He will say that he is merely bringing the news, the news of the greatest event of the millennium: “The soul, that last refuge of values, is dead, because educated people no longer believe it exists.” Unless the assurances of the Wilsons and the Dennetts and the Dawkinses also start rippling out, the lurid carnival that will ensue may make the phrase “the total eclipse of all values” seem tame.

The two most fascinating riddles of the 21st century

If I were a college student today, I don’t think I could resist going into neuroscience. Here we have the two most fascinating riddles of the twenty-first century: the riddle of the human mind and the riddle of what happens to the human mind when it comes to know itself absolutely. In any case, we live in an age in which it is impossible and pointless to avert your eyes from the truth.

Ironically, said Nietzsche, this unflinching eye for truth, this zest for skepticism, is the legacy of Christianity (for complicated reasons that needn’t detain us here). Then he added one final and perhaps ultimate piece of irony in a fragmentary passage in a notebook shortly before he lost his mind (to the late-nineteenth-century’s great venereal scourge, syphilis). He predicted that eventually modern science would turn its juggernaut of skepticism upon itself, question the validity of its own foundations, tear them apart, and self-destruct. I thought about that in the summer of 1994 when a group of mathematicians and computer scientists held a conference at the Santa Fe Institute on “Limits to Scientific Knowledge.” The consensus was that since the human mind is, after all, an entirely physical apparatus, a form of computer, the product of a particular genetic history, it is finite in its capabilities. Being finite, hardwired, it will probably never have the power to comprehend human existence in any complete way. It would be as if a group of dogs were to call a conference to try to understand The Dog. They could try as hard as they wanted, but they wouldn’t get very far. Dogs can communicate only about forty notions, all of them primitive, and they can’t record anything. The project would be doomed from the start. The human brain is far superior to the dog’s, but it is limited nonetheless. So any hope of human beings arriving at some final, complete, self-enclosed theory of human existence is doomed, too.

This, science’s Ultimate Skepticism, has been spreading ever since then. Over the past two years even Darwinism, a sacred tenet among American scientists for the past seventy years, has been beset by…doubts. Scientists–not religiosi–notably the mathematician David Berlinski (“The Deniable Darwin,” Commentary , June 1996) and the biochemist Michael Behe (Darwin’s Black Box , 1996), have begun attacking Darwinism as a mere theory, not a scientific discovery, a theory woefully unsupported by fossil evidence and featuring, at the core of its logic, sheer mush. (Dennett and Dawkins, for whom Darwin is the Only Begotten, the Messiah, are already screaming. They’re beside themselves, utterly apoplectic. Wilson, the giant, keeping his cool, has remained above the battle.) By 1990 the physicist Petr Beckmann of the University of Colorado had already begun going after Einstein. He greatly admired Einstein for his famous equation of matter and energy, E=mc2 , but called his theory of relativity mostly absurd and grotesquely untestable. Beckmann died in 1993. His Fool Killer’s cudgel has been taken up by Howard Hayden of the University of Connecticut, who has many admirers among the upcoming generation of Ultimately Skeptical young physicists. The scorn the new breed heaps upon quantum mechanics (“has no real-world applications”…”depends entirely on fairies sprinkling goofball equations in your eyes”), Unified Field Theory (“Nobel worm bait”), and the Big Bang Theory (“creationism for nerds”) has become withering. If only Nietzsche were alive! He would have relished every minute of it!

Recently I happened to be talking to a prominent California geologist, and she told me: “When I first went into geology, we all thought that in science you create a solid layer of findings, through experiment and careful investigation, and then you add a second layer, like a second layer of bricks, all very carefully, and so on. Occasionally some adventurous scientist stacks the bricks up in towers, and these towers turn out to be insubstantial and they get torn down, and you proceed again with the careful layers. But we now realize that the very first layers aren’t even resting on solid ground. They are balanced on bubbles, on concepts that are full of air, and those bubbles are being burst today, one after the other.”

I suddenly had a picture of the entire astonishing edifice collapsing and modern man plunging headlong back into the primordial ooze. He’s floundering, sloshing about, gulping for air, frantically treading ooze, when he feels something huge and smooth swim beneath him and boost him up, like some almighty dolphin. He can’t see it, but he’s much impressed. He names it God.

Tom Wolfe has chronicled American popular culture for more than three decades. His best-selling books include The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, The Right Stuff, and The Bonfire of the Vanities.

This article can be found on the Tetrica website (link closed). Reprinted with permission.
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The lost kids of Willows

The Class of 2008 leaves Willows bonded by tragedy. “We have now learned,” Nathan Michaud says, “that life isn’t fair.”

Not everything worth reading is good news. This tragic ESPN.com article by Michael Weinreb–which is about the inter-connected deaths of 5 people in a short period of time, 3 from the town high school, in the community of Willows, CA–is a sad example. These are the teens / young adults who die in a grotesque variety of ways:

  • Brian Parks
  • Kayla Arnold
  • Steven Furtado
  • Jennifer Carmen Carrigan
  • Billy Carrigan

Below is the last part of the article:

Perhaps that’s what scares them most, that somehow these deaths will tear them apart. This, the people of Willows could not abide. And so they showed up early on a Friday night in September, and they watched the junior varsity game, and they lined up to purchase the boosters’ homemade tri-tip steak sandwiches, and they filled in the empty spaces in the bleachers. Eventually, people discovered the coach’s [father of Brian Parks] hiding place, including Nathan Michaud, and when he stopped to talk, the coach’s perpetually rheumy eyes filled with something like tears.

Nathan had changed, even since graduation. He had become friends with people he never could have imagined getting to know when he was younger. He still believed in the general inequity of the Almighty’s attitude toward the Class of ’08 — he still did not pretend to understand why fate had royally screwed them this way — but perhaps, he thought, these new friendships were meant as some sort of spiritual consolation. He was going to leave for college the next day, and he imagined he would return often — maybe, someday, he would even return for good — but it wouldn’t be the same, and he understood that, and Curtis Parks understood it, too. In some unspoken way, this was the end of the beginning for both of them.

The coach could not bring himself to stay for the entire game. It was a matter of sensory overload: the attention, the sympathy, the small talk, the smell of those tri-tip sandwiches, the sound of pad crunching against pad, the faces that inevitably and unintentionally evoked his son’s face. In the fourth quarter, as he prepared to depart and Nathan walked off, Curtis Parks called out to him, as if he were calling out to an incarnation of himself that no longer existed. “Nathan!” And to a boy he had known nearly as long as his own son, the coach said, “Call me every once in a while.”

All articles referenced are copied in full at end of post.

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ESPN.com: The Lost Kids of Willows

The Lost Kids of Willows
PART 1: FALL 2006

WILLOWS, Calif. — The quarterback ran one last play against thin air, against an opponent who did not exist, and then he turned away from his teammates and dropped face-first into the grass. “Quit screwing around,” someone said, and when it was clear the quarterback wasn’t screwing around, the coach knelt down, felt for a pulse and attempted to resuscitate him. Someone ran to fetch a pair of scissors to cut through the quarterback’s jersey and shoulder pads, and everyone else stood there and waited for the quarterback to rise again, for this stubborn hallucination to dissipate and the tedium of football practice to resume.

It did not take long at all for the paramedics to arrive. In the town of Willows, nothing is very far from anything, which is why people move to this part of California in the first place. There is one major thoroughfare in Willows, Wood Street, and the worst traffic for miles around can be found in the Wal-Mart parking lot, and the hospital is located approximately three-tenths of a mile from the football practice field where the quarterback lay, unable to breathe. When the paramedics showed up, they couldn’t believe what they were seeing, either. In a town with a population of little more than 6,000, where many of the families have lived for generations, where people sometimes introduce themselves by surname, there is no such thing as a stranger. Three of the paramedics were former students at Willows High School, which stood just across Wood Street from the practice field, a block east of the hospital. While they worked, the quarterback’s mother, who had been painting her house with a friend, dropped her brushes and drove three blocks, arriving at the field while the ambulance was still there. “Get in the car and pray,” the coach had told her when he called. “Just start praying and don’t stop.” The ambulance departed. The quarterback’s mother drove behind it. On the practice field, the quarterback’s teammates stood dazed, unsure of what to do or where to go or whom to call, because nothing like this had ever happened before, not in Willows, where, very much by design, nothing ever happened. The assistant principal heard the news from an office aide who was also a volunteer firefighter. He alerted the principal, and they darted across Wood Street and out to the practice field and found a burly assistant football coach on his hands and knees, weeping. “It’s not good,” the assistant coach said. The temperature was 92 degrees, but it couldn’t have been the heat that felled the quarterback because it was often much hotter than that in Willows in mid-August, and the quarterback had gone down — and that’s how they describe it, even now, as the day Brian Parks went down — just a few plays into practice. In the ambulance, the coach kept up his CPR, and the quarterback exhaled — more of a reflex from the drugs used to stimulate his heart than any sign of a revival — and the coach thought he felt a pulse. He said, “We’re going to make it.” And one of the EMTs just stared at the coach, knowing the truth, knowing the quarterback was already gone, his eyes reflecting back to the coach the utter surrealism of the moment: How could this be? How was this even possible? Another technician, one of the few who did not know the coach personally, told him he could use a mask to help the boy breathe, that he did not need to exhaust himself by continuing to force air from his lungs into the quarterback’s lungs. “It’s my kid,” the coach told him, and then for quite some time, no one said anything at all. This is how it began.

On the afternoon of Aug. 21, 2006, Brian Curtis Parks, 16, was pronounced dead at Glenn Medical Center in Willows, of a cause yet to be determined. Shortly afterward, several of the town’s authority figures held a meeting outside the emergency room and tried to determine what exactly they were supposed to do next. The principal, Mort Geivett, was new in town, as was the superintendent, although he had grown up in Orland, the town just north on Interstate 5 and the home of Willows’ traditional football rival. His name was Steve Olmos, and he had moved here from Los Angeles because he wanted to find a safe place to raise his children, because he had seen enough violence, and because he couldn’t imagine a safer place in the entire known universe than Willows. Seriously: What were the odds of a football coach’s son dying in his father’s arms? A number of small-town clichés hold true in the modern era, perhaps none more so than the maxim that news travels fast, especially when that news involves teenagers. Within minutes, through a series of e-mails and text messages and MySpace postings, everyone in town had heard about Brian Parks. The school brought in grief counselors and bottles of water and boxes of tissues and opened up the gym for the students, and hundreds showed up because they didn’t know where else to go. At one point that evening, the coach, whose name is Curtis Parks, showed up and addressed the students and told them they had to move forward. The coach was broken, and he said as much, comparing himself to a bicycle missing a seat and handlebars. But he assured them that he would repair himself and that the children of Willows would endure, and after that remarkable show of strength, he went home and broke down completely. There were approximately 115 members of the Class of ’08 at Willows High School, and every one of them knew Brian Parks. How could they not? He was the heir apparent at quarterback, the coach’s son in a town where football was the unifying passion. His classmates viewed Brian as the type of kid whose charm allowed him to transcend cliques. “He didn’t have enemies,” says his teammate and close friend, Nathan Michaud, who had known Brian Parks since they attended day care together. “He may not have liked certain people, but he never would show that he didn’t like them.”

Brian counseled at church camps and worked with children in the local parks and recreation program; he partied, but he didn’t drink much, if at all. “Kind of a pretty boy,” his friend Walter Michael says. Brian worried often about pleasing his father now that he had inherited the starting quarterback job (he was not a great athlete, but he had huge feet that the coaches hoped he might soon grow into). He had an enormous shock of curly hair he had been cultivating for months — to the chagrin of his mother, Cindy — and he had a girlfriend named Devin who played field hockey in Corning, 30 miles away. He also had many admirers, including a classmate named Kayla Arnold. Kayla’s mother, Raina, used to drive a school bus; now she worked at the elementary school, and every morning, because their parents arrived at the school early, Brian and Kayla — who also worked at the parks department — arrived early at school, as well. There is only one indoor hallway at Willows High School, adorned with blocky medieval-themed murals that have endured for decades despite the protestations of generations of students who would like to modernize the decor. None of the lockers actually have locks on them because nobody has ever deemed locks to be necessary. In the morning, Brian and Kayla would sit in the hallway alone and discuss their lives, and at times they engaged in a pubescent version of “My Fair Lady,” with Brian giving Kayla advice on how to dress and where to shop (Abercrombie & Fitch, the Gap) and how to attract boys. Kayla was stubborn and outspoken and flighty and impatient. She was on the tennis team, although she spent more time socializing with her opponents than she did preparing for her matches. You want to know Kayla? This is Kayla: For a while, she tried using a natural supplement to improve her memory, but she kept forgetting to take the pills. Every week, she called the director of the parks and rec department to ask what time she was due at work, even though the time never changed. She argued with teachers over her grades and negotiated her way out of trouble using food as currency. When her mother presented her with her first car, a clunky Oldsmobile instead of the truck she wanted, she cried and asked whether she was being punished. Once, in the ninth grade, she got into a fight in the hallway, and Jerry Smith, the assistant principal, pulled both girls into his office and, in a classic attempt at disarmament, asked them whether they truly had arrived at school that day with the intention of fighting each other. The other girl said no. “Hell yes!” Kayla said. But Kayla idolized Brian — he was the quarterback, and he was going to be a star in this town soon enough, after all — and she heeded his advice and began dressing the way Brian dressed. After he died, she visited his grave often, and she kept a scrapbook of news clippings about Brian to sort through her grief. And maybe she loved him a little, in the way teenagers harbor deep and vaguely irrational crushes that feel a lot like love. When he died, she wrote on her MySpace page, “I miss you bri. thanks for the good times.” And 20 months later, when Kayla Arnold fell violently and inexplicably ill while vacationing near San Francisco, when she also died for reasons that could not be easily explained, those words remained on her page.

The town of Willows is impossibly far removed from the California that has been packaged for public consumption. It is nowhere near a beach or a fashionable ZIP code; the story goes that an exchange student once arrived in town and asked why no one was surfing. It is bordered by fields of rice and almonds and walnuts and olives. Downtown has been subsumed by the gaping maw of Wal-Mart. Most of the local public officials are Republicans. The preferred method of conveyance is a pickup truck. The office of the assistant principal is a virtual shrine to Dale Earnhardt Jr. The major employer, beyond the government (Willows is the seat of Glenn County), the school system and the local farms, is insulation manufacturer Johns Manville. And the biggest dates on the social calendar in the fall are high school football games. Even people in surrounding towns tend to think of the kids of Willows as “country hicks,” according to Nathan Michaud, whose father owns a crop-dusting business. The nickname of the school’s sports teams: the Honkers. Seriously. The Willows Honkers. Go Honkers! Locals say the name has to do with the geese and migratory birds that foul the town’s many beautiful trees. But come on: How quaint, how “of the American heartland,” as our politicians might say, is a town with a football team known as the Honkers?

To make a donation Donations in the name of Brian Parks can be sent to Willows Christian Church, 200 S. Plumas, Willows, CA 95988, Attn: Brian Parks Memorial Fund.

Donations to a scholarship fund in memory of Kayla Arnold can be made at Bank of America.

Donations to the Steven Furtado Memorial Fund can be made at any U.S. Bank branch.

So here it is, this place straight out of “Friday Night Lights,” a red-state town wrapped in a blue-state shell, just three hours north of the leftist demons’ gate of Berkeley and San Francisco, an hour north of the capital city of Sacramento, 40 minutes from the nearest shopping mall in Chico, a little speck on the map known to most outsiders as Exit 603, a pit stop off I-5 for truck drivers burning overpriced diesel fuel on their way back and forth from Oregon. At the west end of Willows, just off the freeway, are the amenities of the road: cheap restaurants, budget motels, a Starbucks and several gas stations. On the other side of the overpass is the Wal-Mart, and across the road, a tiny airstrip with an even tinier 24-hour diner, Nancy’s Airport Cafe, set just off the taxiway. Nancy’s is one of the last of the independents at this end of town, and it is a hangout for the children of Willows, the place to meet up when you’re not ready to go home at night, because it’s either a slice of homemade pie at Nancy’s or the Moons Over My Hammy at the Denny’s a block away. There’s not much else to do at night except hang out either at Nancy’s or someone’s house, and although this makes for a generally boring formative experience, that protective bubble has always been the allure of small-town family life. In Willows, parents rarely have to ask where their children are because generally they are in one of a few places, and if they happen to be drinking, someone’s parents will pick them up and drive them home. This is what we mean when we espouse small-town values, isn’t it? That there is safety in familiarity. That there is comfort in tedium. And it’s true that sometimes, even in small towns, this bubble is pierced, and terrible things happen, and children die. But often, there are lessons in those tragedies: Don’t drive drunk. Don’t drive recklessly. Wear a helmet. Look both ways. Keep with the right crowd. Don’t do drugs. And those lessons facilitate the repair of the bubble, and those lessons facilitate the return to normalcy. But this is the spiritual quandary the people of Willows have had to face over the past two years, amid a cruel and relentless series of circumstances: What happens when the bubble is pierced over and over and over again, when good and well-meaning and otherwise healthy children keep dying? And what happens when there are no distinct and discernible lessons in any of it?

PART 2: SPRING 2008

Months passed after the death of Brian Parks, and though Willows was perhaps quieter than usual, the members of the Class of ’08 progressed toward adulthood the way high school students often do: They passed their driver’s tests, they worked menial jobs, they applied to college, they fretted about college, they hung out, they raged at their parents, and they partied. They did not forget Brian Parks — how could they forget when he had gone down right before their eyes? — and they laid out his No. 2 jersey on the bench at every game that first fall (when they somehow made it to the sectional semifinals). They visited his grave at the cemetery at the far end of town, and they dropped in on Curtis and Cindy Parks and brought them food. But they were beginning to process it, to allow it to settle in their minds, to find some measure of acceptance. The cause of Brian’s death had been determined — a heart defect known as spontaneous ventricular fibrillation, a curious condition that doctors insisted could have felled him on the steps of a medical center with little hope for revival. Although it raised as many questions as it answered, at least, they figured, it was something.

Courtesy of the Arnold familyKayla Arnold played tennis at Willows, but she spent more time socializing with her opponents.

By April, graduation was just two months away, which meant most of the Class of ’08 would soon leave Willows for community colleges, four-year colleges, military assignments or vocational training programs, and many of them would never really come back again. “The kids were moving on,” says Jerry Smith, the assistant principal. “The class was moving on. And then Kayla.” And then Kayla. She’d been suffering from bladder infections all year, and she was impossibly thin to begin with (she’d been drinking protein shakes to try to gain weight), and a series of doctors had put her on a kaleidoscopic regimen of antibiotics. When one course of antibiotics made her violently ill, a doctor put her on a potent anti-nausea medication. On her MySpace page, she described herself as “sick and dizzy from medicine,” and yet one weekend in April, she insisted on accompanying her boyfriend and her mother to the Bay Area to visit her aunt. She didn’t want to stay home with her grandmother, who also lives in Willows, in a house so close that Kayla often retreated there when she fell out with her mother. This was Kayla being Kayla, obstinate and insistent on seizing any opportunity to explore the world beyond Willows. Typically, she won; she went on the trip. “My sister and I ran in a race in Santa Cruz that morning,” says her mother. “She stayed on the beach with her boyfriend and just kind of threw up, you know, and didn’t feel good.” Raina Arnold checked her daughter into the hospital that night. More medications, more imprecise diagnoses, her prognosis suddenly growing bleaker, the text messages passing back and forth, people in Willows spreading rumors that Kayla was dead already. The next day, Smith called the Class of ’08 to the cafeteria and told them what they had already figured out for themselves. “It’s not good,” he said. Twenty-four hours later, Kayla Arnold was gone, for reasons that remain unclear to doctors and to her own family, reasons that might or might not have to do with the medications that made her sick. They are still awaiting a definitive cause of death. In the days that followed, the Arnolds had to say something, and they relied on a spokesman who had grown close to Kayla in the past year to deliver a statement to the local newspaper. “I know the community will rally behind the family the same way they did last time,” said the spokesman, whose very presence served as a testament to the interconnectedness of a town where nothing and no one is ever more than five minutes away. “Kayla was a wonderful young lady,” Curtis Parks also told the newspaper.

After Kayla, the Class of ’08 lurched toward graduation. For the first time, the world no longer seemed compact and manageable. The world seemed indiscriminate and unforgiving, and it didn’t seem to give a damn where they lived or how they behaved. Who among them would it swallow next? Among the impending graduates was an Eagle Scout named Steven Furtado who also bagged groceries at the Sani-Food supermarket, played the trumpet in the band, and, at 5-foot-9, 170 pounds, was an undersized center and defensive lineman on the football team. He had delivered one last snap before Brian went down that day in August 2006, and he knew Kayla a little, too. In fact, there are photographs of Steven standing in front of Kayla’s coffin because Raina Arnold hired a professional photographer to shoot her daughter’s funeral. Her friends thought this was bizarre, but she didn’t care. She knew she would remember none of this later, and she felt, just as her daughter had recorded her thoughts in diaries and scrapbooks and in endless notes to herself so as not to forget, it was her duty to document everything that came after. Courtesy of the Parks familyCenter Steven Furtado, right, was on the practice field the day Brian died. Less than two years later, Steven would become the third Willows student to die.

Steven did not really travel in the same groups as Brian and Kayla. But like Brian, he had a group of close friends, an inner circle, and, like Brian, he had enough self-confidence to indulge his own interests without fear of mockery from his peers. It is one of the perks of growing up in a small town that cliques are often weak enough to be transcended. It isn’t that Willows doesn’t have them: There are growing numbers of Hispanic and Chinese immigrants, and there is an inevitable amount of stratification between those who own sprawling farms outside of town and modest houses in town, and those who can barely afford to live in the low-slung apartment complexes near I-5. But there is an unmistakable familiarity, as well: Everyone knows certain things about everyone else in town, which can be both humiliating and comforting. “I like knowing who people are,” Nathan Michaud says. “Maybe you don’t get along with them, but you know them. You know what kind of people they are.”

Steven’s reputation was as a hunter and a skilled marksman, as a quiet kid who seemed intent on experiencing as much as possible. He stayed up late and read fantasy novels about dragons and occasionally dyed his hair odd colors, and he didn’t care much if his friends thought his whims and his passion for scouting, band, auto-shop (his father spent 25 years as a mechanic), golf and elk-hunting to be a bit of a goof. In the months after Brian’s death, he’d had trouble sleeping and struggled with narcolepsy; at one point, he nodded off while watching game tape with his football teammates, who occasionally referred to him as “Sleepy Steve.” But with graduation fast approaching, Steven had also found an additional measure of personal happiness: He had a girlfriend. Her name was Jenny, and they met at an honors band camp in Sacramento, and she lived in Chester, 100 miles northeast of Willows, a town of 2,000 that by all accounts makes Willows look like San Jose. Though they had been dating for only two months, “We really felt like they were going somewhere as a couple,” says Steven’s father, Dan. In May, four weeks after the death of Kayla Arnold, Steven Furtado marched with the band in the annual Willows town parade, known as the Lamb Derby. That night, he drove to Chico to buy a Mother’s Day gift for his mom, then to Chester to sleep over at Jenny’s house. Her prom was that night, but she was due at work the next morning, at the Holiday Market, and they skipped the dance. When Steven hadn’t arrived home by 11 the next morning, his mother, Denise, began calling her son’s cell phone. It went straight to voice mail. Dan Furtado called the market and asked for “just Jenny”; he realized then that he didn’t know her last name. No one had heard from her, either. They began to think — they began to hope — that perhaps their son and his new girlfriend had indulged in one of those youthful indiscretions that seniors on the verge of graduation are wont to engage in. Maybe they’d blown off everyone and everything and gone to the lake and gone swimming.

Finally, Dan Furtado called the sheriff’s department. The person who answered the phone said an officer would call back. After that, every phone call the Furtados placed went unanswered, and they felt their own quiet reality giving way to the surreal movie-of-the-week tension that had first swept through Willows 21 months before. At 6 p.m., a police car pulled up to the Furtados’ house on Third Street, the one with the BEWARE OF DOG sign on the front gate and the paw prints all over the front door. Two people got out of the car. One was Dan Furtado’s niece, Steven Furtado’s cousin, Brandy McDonald, who worked as a deputy for the Glenn County Sheriff’s Department. Dan Furtado did not wait for the knock. He walked out and met them in the street. That afternoon, another sheriff’s deputy placed a call to a friend, Jerry Smith, who, in addition to being the assistant principal at Willows, is also (A) a local scout for the Houston Astros and (B) a bail bondsman. He carries business cards for all three professions. He assumed this was a call regarding bail. It was not. “I guess this has something to do with one of our kids, huh?” Smith said, and the deputy (whose name was Jim) said nothing, and Smith, who had been barbecuing for his wife and daughter on Mother’s Day, walked out to his driveway to wait. When the deputy arrived, Smith could see it in his face. He said, “Jimmy, who is it?” The deputy could not speak. “Who is it?” Smith asked again.

On Friday, June 6, at 8 p.m., the Class of ’08 held its commencement ceremony in the football stadium, just across Wood Street from the field where Brian Parks went down. The graduates proceeded through an arch with a pair of star-shaped banners on either side. The Willows Senior Singers performed a version of Sarah McLachlan’s “I Will Remember You,” and people crowded the bleachers and some of the old-timers set up lawn chairs on the grass, and the younger children chased after each other in the end zones, their screams drowning out the silence. Mostly, the people of Willows stared out into the encroaching darkness in a vain attempt to process what the hell had happened to their town over the past 22 months. This latest sequence of events had prompted a rare occurrence in a largely media-free pocket of California: a tabloid news story, one that was picked up by newspapers and television stations in Sacramento and beyond merely for the staggering and heartbreaking shame of it all. The bodies of Steven Daniel Furtado and his girlfriend, Jennifer Carmen Carrigan, were discovered in Carrigan’s house at noon on Sunday, Mother’s Day, by Carrigan’s own mother, Joan. They had each been stabbed multiple times, allegedly by Reyes Carrillo, Carrigan’s classmate and ex-boyfriend, who was in custody. Officers described the crime scene as especially brutal.

After hearing the news that evening, Jenny’s older brother, Billy, while speeding along a mountain road on his way back home from college in the Bay Area, lost control of his pickup truck and slammed into several trees. He died a short time later. There was nothing more to be said. Even the mental health counselors found themselves at a loss. Upon delivering the news to the Class of ’08, Jerry Smith, standing before several hundred students in the school’s gymnasium, broke down completely. Many broke down with him; Smith had addressed the seniors first, in the cafeteria, as he had done twice before, and they no longer wanted anything to do with that room, where they had met as a group for no other reason than to mourn. Fights started, violent disagreements in the hallway among otherwise decent kids over nothing at all. Talk of curses and hexes surfaced, and the trauma spawned two disparate reactions for mental health counselors to address: recklessness (as in, Why should I obey the rules when the rules no longer seem to protect us?) and caution. “They were thinking, ‘Is it over?'” says Amy Lindsey, a counselor. “‘What else is going to happen to us?'” Graduation approached in a fog; the only way the Class of ’08 could sustain its collective will was by imagining more tributes and memorials. The seniors began to feel this was all they did; they’d already held a candlelight vigil for Brian on the practice field and one for Kayla in a courtyard outside the school, and now they held one for Steven in the auto shop. They’d already made up car decals memorializing Brian, and Kayla; now they made up decals for Steven. Another tribute to Kayla and Brian, at graduation, had already been planned, with the parents to receive framed portraits of their children, the matting autographed by every member of the Class of ’08. This had been planned weeks ago, and Steven had signed both of those portraits. “Not in a million years — a million years — did I think we’d have to do one more,” Smith says. “Not in a million years. A murder? Are you kidding me?” By now, they’d done scrapbooks and hung ribbons from trees and adorned the graves with flowers and glow-in-the-dark frogs and Titleist golf balls and trumpets and footballs, and they were running out of ideas. “I was kind of run dry,” says Nathan Michaud. “I couldn’t cry anymore. I was blank.” And maybe it sounds selfish, but how were the surviving members of the Class of ’08 supposed to define themselves, to mark their own passage into adulthood, amid all this mourning and remembrance? What about their identity? What about their achievements? “These kids are supposed to be happy and excited,” Amy Lindsey says. “They don’t want people in their faces with cameras, asking, ‘How do you feel?'” At the ceremony, one of the valedictorians, Chelsea Berens, spoke of chaos theory, of the notion that “the flap of a butterfly’s wing could set off a tornado in Texas,” and that somehow, the universe is a series of interconnected accidents. This would be the legacy of the Class of ’08: These seniors were inextricably linked to their fallen classmates and to a town that would take years to regain its equilibrium. Then another valedictorian, Nathan Michaud, who would soon leave to study engineering at Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo, stood and leaned into the microphone, and as the sky darkened, he told the village that had raised him what the loss of his friend Brian had evoked, and what the Class of ’08 had come to know, above all else. “We have now learned,” he said, “that life isn’t fair.”

PART 3: SUMMER 2008

In July, several weeks before the start of two-a-days, Curtis Parks stepped outside into the beating heart of a 109-degree day, into a wilting and lifeless heat, and began to water his lawn. Summer had come down harder than usual on Willows, in a place where people had come to expect the worst. The wildfires were burning out of control up north, and the sky was the color of a bruise. The air felt toxic and the humidity lay flat from one end of town to the other, from the Wal-Mart to the cemetery. At this moment, Parks was no longer a teacher, no longer a coach, no longer an authority figure. He was planning to take a leave for the following school year and figure it out from there. He was a private citizen of Willows for the first time in his adult life. It felt odd and daunting but it was also liberating because the past two years had all been too much. He had hewed to his duties only to keep a promise he made to his son when Brian was just a waterboy — that he would stay on until Brian’s graduation. Sensing the void, the assistant coaches assumed most of Curtis Parks’ duties, and the same man who wept on all fours on the practice field that day, Jim Ward, prepared to take over the team in the fall.

“That first game after Brian, my friend had to lead me out to the field,” Parks says. “He held onto my elbow like I was walking around on crutches, for heaven’s sake. I stood 10 yards away the whole night. When that game was done, it was evident these kids had lost a very dear friend. And the next worst thing would be for them to lose me.” The friend who steadied him that night, Gary Enos, who owned a nearby rice farm, volunteered to drive the coach to road football games because Parks couldn’t handle the emotional burden of riding on the bus. Everything reminded him of Brian. That was the thing people didn’t understand: Brian was not merely his son. Brian was his best friend. During the school year, Brian would often ride home with his father or sit with him in the cab of his pickup truck so they could eat lunch together — how many fathers and sons did that? They went hunting together up north, and Curtis drove Brian and his friends to a Cal football game down south, and Brian was set to become his starting quarterback, which would have been a fitting culmination to a three-decade coaching career. Now, Curtis didn’t know how to bring himself around again. None of it seemed to matter anymore. There were nights, not long after Brian went down, when he would stand in his backyard and stare at the sky and wonder whether he might also just go down, right there, because he could not will himself to make it back inside the house. He and Cindy kept Brian’s room as it was — the magazines and the Florida State football posters and the 2002 World Series pennant and the Xbox — and they allowed his classmates to come through and sit on Brian’s bed and take away whatever they wanted. And although their twin daughters had long ago grown up and moved away, Cindy found a surrogate in Kayla Arnold. In the morning, Kayla would bring Curtis biscuits and gravy from Nancy’s, and in the afternoon, she and Cindy would discuss books and philosophy and the Lord and how all of it might fit together, then Kayla would drive herself to Brian’s grave and read from a book called “90 Minutes in Heaven.” “I still feel like it wouldn’t surprise me to have her walk through the door, and that’s just because of the connection we had with her,” Cindy Parks says. “One day she looked at me and said, ‘Why is God doing this to us?’ And the conversations that we were having are the very things that we’re now telling someone else about her.” It was amazing, everyone kept saying, not just the bizarre and inexplicable sequence of events, but the way connections and coincidences seemed to manifest themselves in the aftermath. The girl who had been reading at Brian’s grave was now buried just a few feet from that same grave, and another boy, photographed at that girl’s funeral, was now buried several feet behind her. There were fingerprints left all over town, including on Steven’s arm — he’d been in the process of getting a tattoo with Brian and Kayla’s names before he was murdered. And there were reminders everywhere you looked. On Mother’s Day, after learning of Steven’s death, Jerry Smith sat for a time on the bed of his truck, and when he leapt down, the first thing he saw was a scratch that Steven had left when pulling out of a tight space in the faculty parking lot. No one doubted that Cindy and Curtis Parks were the axis around which this town had come to rotate. They were quiet, self-sustaining and churchgoing people who had raised three children here, who shopped at Sani-Foods and lived on Pacific Avenue. They had been reliable neighbors, and they had maintained faith, to the point that their son was the only student in his Sunday school class before he died. Curtis had won sectional championships in his decade as head coach (he also spent nearly two decades coaching at nearby Williams High School, but always resided in Willows), yet he had never hesitated to suspend star players for insubordination. Unlike many high school football coaches in small towns, he was almost universally beloved. Even after their son had been struck down, even in their darkest hour, the Parks rushed to comfort the Arnolds and Furtados, and Curtis could no longer open a newspaper without reaching out over the phone or in person to some mourning family in a nearby community. “Now we have a forever connection,” Cindy says. “We’re parents who have lost kids. It’s a group of folks that nobody wants to belong to, but now we do.”

Over the course of two years, the people of Willows had done what they could to restore balance to their world, smothering all three families with condolence cards, food and donations, so many that Raina Arnold found herself writing thank-you notes to people she had never met, so many that Gary Enos actually brought Curtis and Cindy Parks an extra refrigerator, so many that when Dan and Denise Furtado opened up a memorial account, they had $10,000 in small donations within five days. It was the essence of Willows, that the same people who might be given to gossip about you in the produce section of the Sani-Foods would show up at your front door with a pot roast and tin of cookies. But of course, there was still that overarching question, lying heavy in the air alongside the smoke and the humidity, a question that refused to dissipate, a question that was posed in suddenly well-populated Sunday school classes and in the aisles of Wal-Mart and on the oft-deserted streets of downtown Willows and in the back booths at Nancy’s. It was a question that no one could dignify with a proper answer because there was no proper answer.

Why us? “One of the reasons why a lot of us live here is because we like the small-town pace of life,” Smith says. “This doesn’t happen here, you know. When it does happen, then it really brings into reality that anything can happen to anybody.”

In September, there was a pep rally that consisted of approximately 400 high school students, segregated into classes, standing in a gymnasium and screaming at each other. It was a quintessential small-town moment: band wailing, cheerleaders chattering, handmade signs taped to the walls, the seniors razzing the juniors razzing the sophomores razzing the freshmen, who were not permitted to stand merely because they had not yet earned the right to stand. The rally culminated with a flag football game between the varsity and junior varsity, and with Smith delivering a PG-13 motivational speech directed at the opponent in the first home game of the season, Winters High, a team that happened to be coached by his own stepson. It felt good, to be back at football again. It felt like — well, it felt something like what normal used to feel like around here, if that even made any sense anymore. Two years earlier, football had been the source of the breakdown; maybe now football could inaugurate a restoration for the classes of ’09 and ’10 and ’11 and ’12, for a generation of children scarred by this seemingly impossible sequence of events. “A town needs its children, just as much and in the same ways a family does,” author Russell Banks once wrote. “It comes undone without them, turns a community into a windblown scattering of isolated individuals.”

Perhaps that’s what scares them most, that somehow these deaths will tear them apart. This, the people of Willows could not abide. And so they showed up early on a Friday night in September, and they watched the junior varsity game, and they lined up to purchase the boosters’ homemade tri-tip steak sandwiches, and they filled in the empty spaces in the bleachers. Raina Arnold showed up, and so did Dan and Denise Furtado, even though they had attended a preliminary hearing for the suspect in their son’s murder the day before. “I can’t see leaving this house, or leaving this town, or leaving these people,” says Denise Furtado, whose husband showed up at the game wearing a T-shirt bearing his son’s photograph. “I really feel for people who have to go through things like this alone. The question of leaving is not even a question. I have no desire to leave at all.” As the evening wore on, as darkness descended on Willows once again and the home team ground out a 14-7 victory, Curtis Parks stood in a distant corner of the stadium, shielded from the bleachers by an emergency vehicle parked near the gates. He was doing nothing much at all these days; to fill the time, he had started working the rice harvest on Gary Enos’ farm, and it was good work because it was mindless work. Eventually, people discovered the coach’s hiding place, including Nathan Michaud, and when he stopped to talk, the coach’s perpetually rheumy eyes filled with something like tears. Nathan had changed, even since graduation. He had become friends with people he never could have imagined getting to know when he was younger. He still believed in the general inequity of the Almighty’s attitude toward the Class of ’08 — he still did not pretend to understand why fate had royally screwed them this way — but perhaps, he thought, these new friendships were meant as some sort of spiritual consolation. He was going to leave for college the next day, and he imagined he would return often — maybe, someday, he would even return for good — but it wouldn’t be the same, and he understood that, and Curtis Parks understood it, too. In some unspoken way, this was the end of the beginning for both of them. The coach could not bring himself to stay for the entire game. It was a matter of sensory overload: the attention, the sympathy, the small talk, the smell of those tri-tip sandwiches, the sound of pad crunching against pad, the faces that inevitably and unintentionally evoked his son’s face. In the fourth quarter, as he prepared to depart and Nathan walked off, Curtis Parks called out to him, as if he were calling out to an incarnation of himself that no longer existed. “Nathan!” And to a boy he had known nearly as long as his own son, the coach said, “Call me every once in a while.”

Michael Weinreb is a regular contributor to ESPN.com. His book “Game of Kings: A Year Among the Oddballs and Geniuses Who Make Up America’s Top High School Chess Team” is now available in paperback from Gotham Books. He is working on a book about sports in the 1980s. He can be reached at http://www.michaelweinreb.com.
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Fact checking tax policy in Presidential Debate

The Tax Foundation, a respected organization–Sen Obama relied upon them for some of his figures in the debate–has provided their analysis of the statements made during the debate on Wednesday. I will attempt to summarize their findings and prejudice them with my own thoughts in the [brackets].

Sen Obama’s errors

  • Throughout the debate, Sen. Obama repeatedly showed an unfortunate ignorance of one of the fundamental principles of taxation: all taxes are paid by people. [Class warfare ain’t about facts].
  • Obama states that he will provide three times the amount of tax relief to middle-class families than Sen. McCain does. What Sen. Obama doesn’t tell you is that Sen. McCain’s health care tax plan would actually provide more savings to middle-income tax units (as a group) than Sen. Obama’s health care plan. Therefore, when you include the effects of these health care plans, the three-times as much tax relief claim no longer holds.
  • Commenting on McCain’s health care plan, he made an invalid comparison, stating that the average policy costs about $12K, so if you’ve got a $5K [credit] that’s a loss for you. See paragraph below for full explanation.
    The $12K cost and $5K credit are not comparable unless one assumes two facts for McCain’s health care tax plan: (1) the worker will be dropped by his employer, and (2) the worker’s wages will not increase to offset the lost health care. For most workers, this isn’t going to happen. If somebody is receiving $12,000 in health insurance that is now taxed as ordinary income (and there is no dropping of coverage), a $5,000 credit is going to more than offset the additional tax a person must pay on his/her employer-provided health insurance. Eventually, since the credit is indexed for inflation and not health-care costs, the credit’s value would diminish. But over the next ten years, Tax Policy Center has estimated that McCain’s health care tax plan is a $1.3 trillion tax cut for American taxpayers, and they have shown that the average middle-income tax unit would be better off under McCain’s health care tax plan than Obama’s in that time period.
  • Obama stated that 98% of small businesses make less than $250,000, but he wanted to give them additional tax breaks, since they produce the most jobs. [The 98% is based on the number of tax returns–it includes all Schedule C’s on 1040 returns–think of how many friends you have that are part-time real estate brokers to understand how an inflated and overstated number that is]. So under his rationale, a small business that earned $100 in business income and had only one employee would have the same impact on the economy as a small business that earned $500,000 in net income and had 50 employees. Obviously, that’s ridiculous, but it has fit with the theme of this campaign: if it sounds good, say it regardless if it’s misleading.

Sen McCain’s errors

  • Accused Obama of voting to increase taxes on those making $42K(*). It was a non-binding party-line vote.
  • Implied that if U.S. unilaterally changed NAFTA, Canada would sell their oil to China. Not sufficiently nuanced answer since we would just get oil from elsewhere. [Yes, but at a higher cost. McCain’s overall point is valid, it’s not in our interests to unilaterally change free trade agreements. This is exactly why Obama’s key economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, met with Canadian officials back in April to let them know that the anti-NAFTA rhetoric was just for show].
  • Stated that Obama has proposed $860B in new spending. Figure is out of context, no details provided.
  • Average cost of a health care insurance program is in doubt. McCain has support for his $5,800, as does Obama for his $12,000 figure. [Weak point since they don’t opine on which number is more accurate].
  • No reason to believe he will be able to balance budget at end of first term. [I support McCain, but to hear him repeat this in a debate forum was … bizarre. If it were discovered that they laced his coffee with crack beforehand, that would only partially excuse the utterance of such nonsense].

* – FYI – When “30K” is used for 30,000, those are not Roman numerals, but pseudo-metric, where K stands for “kilo-“. For the same reason, “30M” means 30,000,000, using M for “mega-” (or just “million”). ‘B’ for billions is considered non-metric. I must confess I’ve always used them and was not sure what they were based on, until now.

All articles referenced are copied in full at end of post.

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Tax Foundation – http://www.taxfoundation.org/blog/printer/23776.html
October 15, 2008
Fact Checking Tax Policy Discussion in the Final Presidential Debate

by Gerald Prante

Finally, it’s over. It was painful and I would have rather been watching baseball, but honestly, it was not quite as bad as the previous two debates between Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama in terms of abuse of the facts on tax issues. That being said, however, both candidates did make many of the same dishonest and misleading statements they’ve made in the past two debates and on the campaign trail. And given that these falsehoods have been debunked countless times over and over not only here but by other organizations like CNN, CQ, and Factcheck.org, the fact that they continue to spout them over and over again shows that they don’t really care about the truth and would rather just say what sounds good in front of a camera.

Since Sen. McCain went first in the debate, we begin with an analysis of his misleading and less than perfect comments.

Fact Checking Sen. McCain

Early in the debate, John McCain once again voiced his concern over the rising national debt and claimed that he could balance the budget in his first four years in office. But given that his tax policies contain major tax cuts that will not pay for themselves (especially in 2011 and 2012 after Bush tax cuts expire), it is a pretty safe bet that Sen. McCain is not going to be balancing the budget in 2012. We definitely know that neither Obama nor McCain is going to balance the budget in the first year or two of his administration.

Next in the debate, for about the millionth time in the past six months, McCain said this about Sen. Obama’s voting record:

Sen. Obama talks about voting for budgets. He voted twice for a budget resolution that increases the taxes on individuals making $42,000 a year.

Once again, that was a non-binding party-line vote taken earlier this year in the Senate. And if voting records on tax issues are relevant despite what the senator is proposing as a candidate, then shouldn’t Sen. McCain’s position on the Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 (which he opposed) be fair game?

On the issue of energy, Sen. McCain said this about trade with Canada:

By the way, when Sen. Obama said he would unilaterally renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, the Canadians said, “Yes, and we’ll sell our oil to China.”

What he doesn’t understand is that even if Canada shipped the oil to China, the effect on the U.S. would be relatively small given that other oil that is currently going to China would flow to the United States. The difference would be transportation costs and any impact of a tariff. Basically, this statement ignores the fact that there is a world market for oil.

Moving to the issue of healthcare, Sen. McCain said this in support of his $5,000 per family health care tax credit:

The average cost of a health care insurance plan in America today is $5,800. I’m going to give them $5,000 to take with them wherever they want to go, and this will give them affordability.

The reason I bring this up is because later, Sen. Obama quoted the figure as being $12,000. It appears that Sen. McCain got his figure from this report, which says this: “Nationwide, annual premiums averaged $2,613 for single coverage and $5,799 for family plans in the 2006-2007 period. For single policies, annual premiums ranged from $1,163 for persons under age 18 to $5,090 for persons aged 60-64. For family policies, premiums ranged from $2,325 for policies covering children under age 18 to $9,201 for families headed by persons aged 60-64.

Obama’s $12,000 figure appears to come from this Kaiser report.

Finally, McCain once again made this misleading claim about Sen. Obama’s spending priorities:

Why can’t we have transparency, accountability, reform of these agencies of government? Maybe that’s why he’s asked for 860 — sought and proposed $860 billion worth of new spending and wants to raise people’s taxes in a time of incredible challenge and difficulty and heartache for the American families.

While the Tax Foundation has done no analysis on this issue, Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget was quoted by CNN as saying the statement was “”a misleading figure taken out of context.

Fact Checking Sen. Obama

Throughout the debate, Sen. Obama repeatedly showed an unfortunate ignorance of one of the fundamental principles of taxation: all taxes are paid by people. On multiple occasions, Obama claimed that businesses or corporations “can afford” to pay higher taxes. But such a statement is just ridiculous. Companies have no “ability to pay” taxes. Does the corporation’s building pay the tax? How about its fax machine or water cooler? No. People pay the taxes. Here is one such example of why Sen. Obama would get an F in public finance:

Then Exxon Mobil, which made $12 billion, record profits, over the last several quarters, they can afford to pay a little more so that ordinary families who are hurting out there — they’re trying to figure out how they’re going to afford food, how they’re going to save for their kids’ college education, they need a break.

What Sen. Obama doesn’t understand or doesn’t want to tell the American public is that when Exxon Mobil writes that check to Uncle Sam, some PERSON is paying the price for that. In the short-run, that person could be a shareholder, a worker, or a consumer. But the fact that Exxon Mobil has a lower after-tax profit means that some PERSON is worse off. For example, Exxon Mobil would likely reduce its dividend payment, or its share price could fall, and that hurts every PERSON who was invested in Exxon Mobil at the time the tax was enacted.

And this isn’t controversial. If you called up Obama’s top economic advisers Jason Furman or Austan Goolsbee on November 5 (after the election) and asked them who pays taxes, both of them would tell you that people pay all taxes, and that a company merely acts as a means of collecting for the government the taxes imposed on owners of capital and in some cases, the company’s workers. In fact, if we truly taxed Haig-Simons income as a pure income tax would call for, it could be possible for no tax to be levied on a corporation assuming retained earnings were taxed.

Sen. Obama made a similar gaffe here:

Because after eight years of failed policies, he and I both agree that what we’re going to have to do is to re-prioritize, make sure that we’re investing in the American people, give tax cuts not to the wealthiest corporations, but give them to small businesses and give them to individuals who are struggling right now, make sure that we finally get serious about energy independence, something that has been languishing in Washington for 30 years, and make sure that our kids get a great education and can afford to go to college.

The fact of the matter is that there is no wealthy corporation. The stockholders of a corporation that holds in its business operation a lot of money (retained earnings) and assets may be wealthy, but the corporation itself is not wealthy. It just makes no sense. It’s just populist rhetoric that sounds good.

On the issue of whose tax plan would provide more relief to middle-income taxpayers, Barack Obama once again brought out this line:

And 95 percent of working families, 95 percent of you out there, will get a tax cut. In fact, independent studies have looked at our respective plans and have concluded that I provide three times the amount of tax relief to middle-class families than Sen. McCain does.

The 95 percent figure is correct. Even though many conservatives have argued that you can’t cut taxes for people who pay no income taxes, most of those who are receiving refundable tax credits on the income tax side are still net taxpayers given that they do pay payroll taxes, corporate income tax, excise taxes, etc. (And even that assumes the fact a person is a net taxpayer even matters versus the net fiscal incidence of the person, and once we go down that road, at least we are actually getting somewhere on the core questions of public finance and the role of government in distributional outcomes.)

The independent study that Sen. Obama is referring to comes from Tax Policy Center, which does indeed verify this fact for middle-income tax units when you exclude the effects of the two candidates’ health care plans. What Sen. Obama doesn’t tell you is that Sen. McCain’s health care tax plan (which he criticizes on many occasions and runs about a billion television ads a day on) would actually provide more savings to middle-income tax units (as a group) than Sen. Obama’s health care plan. And when you include the effects of these health care plans, the three-times as much tax relief claim no longer holds. When TPC ran the tax plans, they analyzed the health care plans separately from the other parts of the candidates’ tax plans.

Speaking of Sen. McCain’s health care plan, Sen. Obama once again made this invalid comparison about it:

By the way, the average policy costs about $12,000. So if you’ve got $5,000 and it’s going to cost you $12,000, that’s a loss for you.

Sen. Obama’s saying outright that Sen. McCain’s plan is a loss for you is nonsense.

The $12,000 cost and $5,000 credit are not comparable unless one assumes two facts for McCain’s health care tax plan: (1) the worker will be dropped by his employer, and (2) the worker’s wages will not increase to offset the lost health care. For most workers, this isn’t going to happen. If somebody is receiving $12,000 in health insurance that is now taxed as ordinary income (and there is no dropping of coverage), a $5,000 credit is going to more than offset the additional tax a person must pay on his/her employer-provided health insurance. Eventually, since the credit is indexed for inflation and not health-care costs, the credit’s value would diminish. But over the next ten years, Tax Policy Center has estimated that McCain’s health care tax plan is a $1.3 trillion tax cut for American taxpayers, and they have shown that the average middle-income tax unit would be better off under McCain’s health care tax plan than Obama’s in that time period. Now it is true that the average doesn’t hold for everyone in the middle and some will gain a lot in the middle and some could lose a lot in the middle (such as those whose coverage is dropped), but the reality is that the health care tax plan is the most progressive part of Sen. McCain’s plan. It would make the federal income tax more progressive.

Finally, on the issue of small businesses, Sen. Obama said this in defense of his tax plan and how it would impact small businesses:

The last point I’ll make about small businesses. Not only do 98 percent of small businesses make less than $250,000, but I also want to give them additional tax breaks, because they are the drivers of the economy. They produce the most jobs.

That 98 percent figure is technically correct under certain assumptions, but it’s basically irrelevant given the latter point he wanted to make. Under Sen. Obama’s metric where the mere number of tax returns affected by his tax plan is what matters (2 percent), a small business that earned $100 in business income and had only one employee would have the same “drive” of the economy as a small business that earned $500,000 in net income and had 50 employees. Obviously, that’s ridiculous, but it has fit with the theme of this campaign: if it sounds good, say it regardless if it’s misleading (or not true).

Summary

Is it November 5th yet?
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