Heat fans need more eFG less OMG

In the upcoming NBA Finals game 4, the Spurs ‘effective field goal percentage’ [*eFG%] will very likely be at .500 or less. The Spurs have only beaten Miami once, last year’s game 1, when their eFG% was under .500. However, the Heat was under .500 as well in that game.

Since their game 3 loss in last year’s Finals, the Heat appear to have consistently solved San Antonio’s defense, although the Spurs have been more spectacular in their ‘good’ games. Here’s a comparison of their eFG%’s in the 10 Finals games; Heat first / then Spurs:

  • Game 3-2014 – .597 / .664 – Spurs won by 19
  • Game 2-2014 – .586 / .512 – Heat won by 2
  • Game 1-2014  – .551 / .684 – Spurs won by 15
  • Game 7-2013  – .512 / .415 – Heat won by 7
  • Game 6-2013  – .537 / .465 – Heat won by 3
  • Game 5-2013  – .494 / .664 – Spurs won by 10
  • Game 4-2013  – .553 / .500 – Heat won by 16
  • Game 3-2013  – .461 / .580 – Spurs won by 36
  • Game 2-2013  – .554 / .474 – Heat won by 19
  • Game 1-2013  – .487 / .458 – Spurs won by 4

Notice the Spurs consistent drop off following their great shooting games. Only the Miami Heat has recorded an eFG% over .520 — an average eFG% exceeded only by these 2 teams in this year’s playoffs — for consecutive games. The Heat has done so for all 3 games in this year’s NBA Finals. Then again, only the Spurs have ever shot way over .600, doing it 3 times, twice in the last 3 games, but never in consecutive games.

The point is that the Heat have been more consistent than the Spurs offensively, with the caveat that when the Spurs are good, they are spectacular. In game 3 on the road, Leonard and Green had career nights, while LeBron set a record for turnovers. The odds of any of those factors repeating are slim.

Now game 5 at San Antonio is a scarier prospect for us Heat fans.

While watching last night’s game, I thought that Danny Green’s 2nd steal against an incredibly nonchalant Dwyane Wade, when the Heat were already down 20, constituted grounds for having Wade’s existing NBA contract and endorsements voided, with the possible except of his Chinese footwear, since they could provide refuge pending deportation hearings.

* – Effective Field Goal Percentage = eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PTM)) / FGA

A metric used in NBA basketball that is similar to Field Goal Percentage, but adjusts for the fact that 3-point field goals are worth 50 percent more than 2-point field goals.

Advertisements

About Jorge Costales

- Cuban Exile [veni] - Raised in Miami [vidi] - American Citizen [vici]
This entry was posted in Miami Heat and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Heat fans need more eFG less OMG

  1. Luis N. Perez says:

    Sometimes numbers are comforting.

  2. So what you’re saying …

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s