So how common is it for NBA conference finals to go 2-2? Is it an indicator of weakness? Do great teams ever struggle in the playoffs? The Basketball-Reference web site provides us details and we can draw our own conclusions. For a better sample size, I went all the way back to the 1st title for the detestable Chicago Bulls in 1991.

Bottom line, the Heat winning game 5 will put them on a pretty conventional track to the championship. But if they lose game 5 and repeat their prior year tracheotomy of the once proud Celtics franchise in the process of repeating as champions, now that is the stuff of legends.

O Captain! My Captain! our fearful trip is done;
The ship has weather’d every rack [think pirates, not South Beach], the prize we sought is won;

Which road are you rooting for?

Here’s the recap:

• In 23 years, 23 out of 46 conference finals have gone 2-2. So once San Antonio went up 3-0 on Memphis, the Heat were practically doomed in game 4.
• Teams emerging from a 2-2 conference finals have won 4 out of the last 5 championships.
• The only recent year without a series tied at 2-2 in the Conference finals was 2011. However, that year was something of an outlier since Dallas arrived in the Finals after facing Cantinflas and Miami arrived after facing a team ‘led’ by Derrick Rose.
• Both of Bryant and Gasol’s Lakers championships came after emerging from 2-2 conference finals.
• Ditto the Boston Celtics big 3 in 2008.
• Jordan’s Bulls emerged from 2-2 conference finals in 3 of their 6 championships.
• 41% [9 of 22] of 2-2 conference finals series winners have eventually won the championship. But if we decrease the total by 4 — for the 4 years where both conferences went 2-2 — then the percentage rises to the magical 50% [9 of 18]  mark.

LeBron post 2011 Finals – an introspective period

• The home team was the game 5 winner in 13 of the last 22 [59%] conference finals that were tied 2-2. Not as high as the overall game 5 playoff winners which are frequently noted to be in the 80’s percentage.
• Only one of those home teams — Miami in 2005 — did not win the series. Wade, you will recall, being injured is what swung that series.
• The road team was the game 5 winner in 9 of the last 22 [41%] conference finals that were tied 2-2.
• Only 2 of those road teams — Boston in 2012 and Indiana in 1994 — went on to lose the series.

The NBA conference finals tied at 2 listing since 1991, as well as the Frost and Whitman poems, are copied at end of post.

The following are noted; team with the home court [H], winner of game [5], eventual series winner [W] ,  and if they were the eventual champions.

1. 2013 – Indiana v Miami [H] ???
2. 2012 – Boston [5] v. Miami [H/W/Champions]
3. 2012 – Oklahoma City [5/W] v. San Antonio [H]
4. 2010 – Phoenix v. Los Angeles [H/5/W/Champions]
5. 2009 – Denver v. Los Angeles [H/5/W/Champions]
6. 2008 – Detroit v. Boston [H/5/W/Champions]
7. 2007 – Cleveland [5/W] v. Detroit [H]
8. 2006 – Dallas [5/W] v. Phoenix [H]
9. 2005 – Detroit [W] v. Miami [H/5]
10. 2004 – Detroit [5/W/Champions] v. Indiana [H]
11. 2002 – Boston v. New Jersey [H/5/W]
12. 2001 – Milwaukee v. Philadelphia [H/5/W]
13. 2000 – New York v. Indiana [H/5/W]
14. 1999 – New York [5/W] v. Indiana [H]
15. 1998 – Indiana v. Chicago [H/5/W/Champions]
16. 1997 – Houston v. Utah [H/5/W]
17. 1995 – Indiana v. Orlando [H/5/W]
18. 1995 – Houston [5/W/Champions] v. San Antonio [H]
19. 1994 – Indiana [5] v. New York [H/W]
20. 1993 – Chicago [5/W/Champions] v. New York [H]
21. 1993 – Seattle v. Phoenix [H/5/W]
22. 1992 – Cleveland v. Chicago [H/5/W/Champions]
23. 1992 – Utah v. Portland [H/5/W]

———————-
The Road Not Taken – Robert Frost

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;

Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,

And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

———————————————————-

Walt Whitman

O Captain! My Captain! our fearful trip is done;
The ship has weather’d every rack, the prize we sought is won;
The port is near, the bells I hear, the people all exulting,
While follow eyes the steady keel, the vessel grim and daring:

But O heart! heart! heart!
O the bleeding drops of red,
Where on the deck my Captain lies,
Fallen cold and dead.

O Captain! my Captain! rise up and hear the bells;
Rise up—for you the flag is flung—for you the bugle trills;
For you bouquets and ribbon’d wreaths—for you the shores a-crowding;
For you they call, the swaying mass, their eager faces turning;

O captain! dear father!
This arm beneath your head;
It is some dream that on the deck,
You’ve fallen cold and dead.

My Captain does not answer, his lips are pale and still;
My father does not feel my arm, he has no pulse nor will;
The ship is anchor’d safe and sound, its voyage closed and done;
From fearful trip, the victor ship, comes in with object won;

Exult, O shores, and ring, O bells!
But I, with mournful tread,
Walk the deck my captain lies,

Fallen cold and dead.